Roland Garros Seed Analysis – The Women

No Favorites This Year
The women’s field is much different from the men’s. With the men, we have a pretty well-defined heirarchy – Nadal, Federer, etc. – but the women haven’t developed anything close to that; most of the top players have been injured or out of form on the clay this year. The big titles on so far have gone to Justine Henin (Stuttgart), Maria Jose Martinez (Rome) and Aravane Rezai (Madrid), none of whom was even in the top 20 when they won their titles, and they might be as good a place to start as any. Rezai now enters Paris with home-Slam pressure, and if she has any doubt about what that is like, all she has to do is talk to Amelie Mauresmo. She does have a Round of 16 result from last year, though, so maybe she can make a run.
Martinez is entering Roland Garros as a legitimate dark horse, too. She reached the third round last year and put up a fight against Serena Williams. With that big clay tournament win in Rome, she certainly can’t be dismissed.
For both of these two, their tournament wins have come the hard way. Martinez beat Caroline Wozniacki, Ana Ivanovic and Jelena Jankovic in Rome, and Rezai beat Henin, Jankovic and Venus Williams at Madrid. It remains to be seen if they can duplicate those results in a major, but both know they can beat the top players. I doubt they’ll be around on the final weekend, but could they be alive beyond the first weekend? Possibly.
As surprising as it sounds, Henin might be the biggest unknown of these three. Stuttgart was her first title after coming out of retirement at the start of the year, and that win was sandwiched between a couple uncharacteristic losses. She’s had health questions, with injury and illness affecting her results, but if she’s fit, Henin has, by far, the best clay resume of any woman in the draw, with four wins and a semifinal between 2001 and 2007 and she hasn’t lost a set since the fourth round – in 2005. If she’s not fit, well, she’s also had first-round (2002) and second-round (2004) losses in that same span.
The Top Players
Serena and Venus Williams will enter Roland Garros seeded first and second for the first time since the 2003 Australian Open. Venus comes in with some confidence, having reached the finals of Madrid, so she’s got to be considered a contender. Tough losses to Jankovic and Rezai have to raise questions, though. Serena comes into Paris without a title, but after hurting her knee in Australia, she shouldn’t have been looking to win Rome and Madrid – she should have been looking to win matches, which she did. Perhaps most importantly, she’ll come into Roland Garros motivated – if she can lift the trophy here, she’ll have a good chance of winning the Grand Slam this season. No doubt, she’s a threat.
Wozniacki, now the third seed, is defending Round of 16 points, but she's been in dismal form since hurting her ankle at Charleston. She’s got to step up if she wants to live up to her seeding this year.
One player who has stepped up on the clay is Jelena Jankovic. After winning Indian Wells earlier this year, she came onto the clay, and she’s been to the latter rounds of each of the big events, but she doesn’t have a title to show for it. Now the fourth-ranked player, she’s got to be expecting to be around late in the second week.
The players who probably have the most to lose are the defending finalists, Svetlana Kuznetsova and Dinara Safina. Since winning the title last year, Kuznetsova’s results have been awful, and she’s now got just less than half her points wrapped up in Paris. In her defense, Safina’s been injured, but talk is that her practice time is limited, and she hasn’t been doing much winning since her return. An early loss in Paris could put them both on the wrong side of the Top 16 – that’s a long way for players with their talent to fall.
Samantha Stosur was hot to start the clay season, winning the Charleston tournament and finishing runner-up to Henin in Stuttgart. She then lost 6-3, 6-3 to Venus in Madrid. As a defending semifinalist, she has a track record that suggests she could go far, but if she’s going to win, she’ll have to beat players like Henin and Venus. No doubt she’s a darkhorse, but a winner? Maybe not.
Anyone Else?
Elena Dementieva, the fifth-ranked player, is a quiet threat. She’s had good results in Paris but has been quiet this year. Agnieszka Radwanska (Round of 16) and Vika Azarenka (quarterfinals) could do well, or they could flame out early if they run into a tough draw. Azarenka especially, has disappointed, disappearing after giving Serena a huge scare in Australia.
Shahar Peer and Lucie Safarova have done well on the clay and could out-perform their seeds. Nadia Petrova, as a two-time semifinalist, will always be a tough out in Paris – and she’s coming in with a win over Serena. Keep an eye on her early.
Maria Sharapova is defending quarterfinalist points in Paris, but she’s also been injured. She might need help from the draw if she’s going to do well this year. The Italians, Flavia Pennetta and Francesca Schiavone were both first-round losers last year, but both are comfortable on clay. They should do better this year, although neither is likely to be around for the final weekend.
Na Li reached the Round of 16 last year but after reaching the semifinals in Australia, she’s also been quiet. Dominika Cibulkova is defending semifinalist points but she’s barely been heard from since last year. An early loss will send her plummeting.
The top French player is Marion Bartoli, but as of right now, her results haven’t suggested she’s capable of living up to her seeding. Vera Zvonareva has been to the quarterfinals in Paris before and isn’t defending anything this year, although her results haven’t been up to par, either.
It’s a packed crowd in the women’s field, no doubt about it. Perhaps more so than with the men, the draw is going to tell a lot about who can and can’t win this year. At this point, I wouldn't even want to begin to guess at what's going to happen.
Come back later this week, for more on Roland Garros.