Danger to the Top?
How quickly things can change. Just a couple months ago, some tennis fans were lamenting the possibility of Roger Federer’s streak of Grand Slam semifinals possibly being stopped here, should he draw then-fifth ranked Rafael Nadal for the quarterfinals. Now, with Nadal safely planted at the bottom of the draw, Federer’s run is almost sure to remain intact.
Or is it?
For some reason, this season feels different than past years, where Federer has shown signs of “vulnerability.” In 2009, Federer had losses to Stanislas Wawrinka, Julien Benneteau and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. All are capable players, no doubt, but at the same time, they aren't guys you would expect to get beat the world’s top-ranked player over five sets.
Coming into Roland Garros this year, Federer has lost matches to Marcos Baghdatis, Tomas Berdych and Ernests Gulbis, all players whose talent, shot-making and explosiveness have been talked about for years. All three are also players who one could imagine, over the course of five sets, having enough weapons to come out on top against the world’s No. 1 player. I could certainly imagine it happening. Now make no mistake, that doesn’t mean I think it will happen, just that it’s possible – especially if Federer has an off-day. And if an upset does happen, Federer’s No. 1 ranking might be in some danger. Again, his losing early isn’t likely, but it can’t be completely ruled out.
The good news for Federer is that, as a top-eight player, he avoids Berdych and Gulbis until at least the Round of 16. Baghdatis is seeded lower, so he could get drawn against Federer in the third round. Baghdatis and Berdych (who's been injured) have not been noisemakers on the clay this year and may be lesser threats than Gulbis, who beat Federer in Rome and lost a tough three-setter to him in Madrid. Gulbis also gave Nadal a very tough match in the Rome semis. If expectations don’t get to him, he’ll be a threat in Paris.
The Reign of Spain
Right now, Nadal has to be considered the man to beat. He comes into Paris undefeated and healthy, and he should have plenty of confidence after beating Federer in the Madrid final. With just a Round of 16 performance to defend from last year, Nadal – if he lifts the championship trophy on the second Sunday in Paris – could set himself up for another run at No. 1 this summer. No doubt, he has much more to gain out of this tournament than a fifth Roland Garros title.
Behind Nadal and Federer, many of the top contenders in Paris have the letters ESP behind their names. Fernando Verdasco will be coming in as the seventh seed, and as the unofficial third favorite after winning Barcelona and reaching the finals of Monte Carlo, but he reportedly has an ankle injury. David Ferrer is 10th, was runner up in Rome and reached the semis in Monte Carlo and Madrid, losing to Nadal and Federer, respectively. Juan Carlos Ferrero reached the quarterfinals in Monte Carlo and won a couple clay events earlier this year – plus he knows how to win at Roland Garros. He is coming into Paris with a knee injury, though. Tommy Robredo has also been quiet but is defending quarterfinalist points from last year. Nicolas Almagro looked confident in Madrid, taking Nadal to three in the semis, and Feliciano Lopez also had a good run, his coming in Rome. And all that’s before mentioning Albert Montanes, the winner in Estoril. If the draw gods are kind, the guys from Spain could be primed for great success this year.
The Rest of the Pack
So what about the rest of the top guys? Well, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray have looked a little vulnerable on clay – vulnerable enough that I wouldn’t put either on the top-five list of contenders coming in. Djokovic had a good result in Monte Carlo, reaching the semifinals, but there, he lost to Verdasco 6-2, 6-2, and he lost to Verdasco again in Rome. Both are going to have to step up big time if they want to be in the discussion when the end of the second week rolls around.
Robin Soderling has had a nice, but not great spring. As the fifth seed and defending runner-up, he’s got a lot to defend, but the draw this year is littered with dangers, and Soderling, although solid, hasn’t looked like a guy ready to defend last year’s result.
The French guys haven't made much noise this spring, either. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Gael Monfils and Gilles Simon (currently injured) will undoubtedly get a lift from the home crowd, Will that be enough to get them past a Federer or Nadal? Most likely not. A Djokovic or Murray? Possibly – if they’re playing well.
Andy Roddick surprised many fans with his run to the Round of 16 last year. This year, he’s coming into Paris with no match play on red clay, so we don’t know his form one way or the other. U.S. fans might have to rely on his compatriots – John Isner and Sam Querrey the finalists at the Serbia Open, if they want wins in Paris this year. We haven’t seen much of these two against the top guys, but at the very least, they should expect to live up to their seeds.
Marin Cilic made a lot of noise on the hard courts but has been less impressive this spring. He’ll have to step up if he’s going to last beyond the first week. Fernando Gonzalez is a defending semifinalist but has been injured. No one knows what form he’ll bring to Paris, but it’s hard to imagine him duplicating last year’s result. The 25th seed, Thomaz Bellucci, is someone fans were talking about earlier this year, but he hasn't has the kind of results that would make one think of him as a top contender - he made the Barcelona quarters and won a clay event in February, but he's had some tough losses this spring as well.
Ultimately, the draw’s going to determine a lot, but based just on this spring's results, the list of favorites should be Nadal, then Federer, then Verdasco, Gulbis and Ferrer. If Djokovic can find some form, put him in the discussion, too; despite his results this year – he has been good on clay in the past.
Tomorrow, I’ll take a look at the women’s seeds.
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