Reflecting on the Men's First Round – Well, Most of It

A few thoughts on the first round of Roland Garros, now that almost all the men and women have played. I'll start with the men.
Granted it's the first round, but Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal are both looking good. I have a hard time seeing anyone in Federer's half of the draw taking him out at this point. He struggles the most with talented, unpredictable players, and the guys left in his quarter, although talented, are all known quantities to Federer. I hate to make the call so early, but barring injury or illness, he should be good to go.
His semifinal could still be interesting, though. I predicted Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to get through, but he's already got a lot of tennis under his belt. He might need some help, getting to the semis, now. Mikhail Youzhny had a nice easy win, and a few dangerous players – Baghdatis, Isner and Berdych got through their first rounds nicely. I was pleasantly surprised to see Andy Murray survive Richard Gasquet, but he's also spent more time on court than I'm sure he'd like, and he could have a lot more under his belt by the time he runs into those players. I'm still not confident in his chances.
Andy Roddick's played a lot for one match, but his draw is looking pretty nice ... until the fourth round, where David Ferrer might be lurking. Ferrer might be the new unofficial third favorite after Fernando Verdasco got bitten by the bad draw bug. It will be interesting to see how Roddick, who pulled out of Madrid, bounces back against Blaz Kavcic, his second-round opponent.
If he's fit, Novak Djokovic has got to like his draw. He gets a talented, but tired, Kei Nishikori in the second round and possibly Victor Hanescu in the third. After that, it could Juan Carlos Ferrero for a spot in the quarterfinals. If he gets a couple matches under his belt, Djokovic might turn into a contender. Stay tuned to find out.
In the final quarter, it's hard to like anyone other than Nadal. He's up next against an Argentine opponent who went 8-6 in the fifth in his first-round match. Like with Federer, Nadal's comfortable enough with the guys in his draw that it's hard to imagine him losing. Of course, last year wasn't any different, and look how that turned out.
For his quarterfinal opponent, I keep going back and forth between Verdasco and Almagro, but Verdasco jumped out to a huge advantage in my book, losing just eight games in his first-round match. Almagro, meanwhile, went to five and could have Fernando Gonzalez waiting for him if he makes the third round. If he makes it to the Round of 16, he might have to play a lot of tennis. Best-of-five makes it easier to weed out the pretenders on clay, and Almagro might have played himself off the favorites' list.

So, how have my predictions gone so far? Well, I've only lost one quarterfinalist and three of my final 16 players – not too bad. Ernests Gulbis retired with an injury, but I'm not convinced he would have pulled out that match anyway. Benneteau was looking pretty good, and he got that home-crowd lift I wrote about earlier. Monaco's loss, to a qualifier ranked 141, was a real shocker, and with Gasquet, you've got to expect the unexpected. He proved me right for two sets and a break and proved me wrong the rest of the way. Oh well – can't win them all.

I'll be back soon with some thoughts on the women's draw.