Roland Garros: A Look at the Men's Draw

I blogged before that until he loses, Rafael Nadal has to be considered the man to beat at Roland Garros this year, and I haven't seen anything in the draw to make me change my mind. For a look at the entire draw, go to: http://www.rolandgarros.com/en_FR/scores/draws/ms/index.html
Top Half
In the top quarter, I only see one real threat to Roger Federer, and that's Ernests Gulbis – should Gulbis get to the quarterfinals. And after the clay-court season he's had, he should be expected to get there. Gulbis drew Marin Cilic, a very good player who's been off on the clay, in the third round; and Albert Montanes, a solid, but not great Spaniard, or Robin Soderling, the defending runner-up, in the Round of 16. Based on his results this spring, a shot at Federer is definitely possible, and based on their two matches on clay this season, that has the potential to be a blockbuster match. Federer has the most recent win, and I'm going with him on this one, but Gulbis did get the win in Rome, and he didn't exactly roll over and die in Madrid. That's one of the matches this year I hope will happen.
In the second quarter, I've got some upsets happening, and my first instinct is that Jo-Wilfried Tsonga's going to come through there. Andy Murray's got a really tough match right at the start, against Richard Gasquet, who's been winning matches at some smaller events. With the confidence he's gained, the talent he has and a little help from the home crowd, he could pull off a big upset. Even if he doesn't, it looks like about anybody could make the quarters from this section. Besides Murray and Gasquet, John Isner and Tomas Berdych are dangerous, but both have injury questions. If healthy, Isner's surprised me on clay. With his serve, could he have a run in him? Marcos Baghdatis hasn't been great on clay, but who knows?
Bottom Half
I guess the biggest question about the third quarter of the draw is this: Is Novak Djokovic fit and in form to make a run? If he is, he's got the game, confidence and experience to make the semis. If not, well, he's got a tough draw ahead of him. His potential third-round opponent, Victor Hanescu, reached the Round of 16 last year, and 2003 champion Juan Carlos Ferrero is also looming in this section. Should he get through that, David Ferrer could be waiting in the quarters. Ferrer got drawn against Andy Roddick in the Round of 16, but I'm not sure Roddick makes it that far. Juan Monaco could be a tough customer in the third round.
A lot of good clay-court players ended up in the bottom quarter, starting with second-seeded Rafael Nadal. He could play Thomaz Bellucci or Ivan Ljubicic in the fourth round, with any one of Fernando Verdasco, Nicolas Almagro or Fernando Gonzalez lurking in the quarters. Earlier this week, I had Verdasco as my unofficial third favorite. Well, for a third favorite, the draw gods certainly were not kind to him. It's hard to see him, or any of these players beating a healthy, confident Nadal.

What's going to happen?
Well, the first thing we've got to remember is that upsets will happen. When and where is the question. Here's are my guesses, starting with the Round of 16:
Federer vs. Monfils
Gulbis vs. Montanes
Gasquet vs. Berdych
Youzhny vs. Tsonga
Monaco vs. Ferrer
Ferrero vs. Djokovic
Verdasco vs. Almagro
Bellucci vs. Nadal

Quarterfinals
Federer vs. Gulbis
Berdych vs. Tsonga
Ferrer vs. Djokovic
Almagro vs. Nadal

Semifinals
Federer vs. Tsonga
Ferrer vs. Nadal

Finals
Federer vs. Nadal

Champion: Nadal