First-round Analysis: The Women

The circus that is the women's draw held surprisingly to form in the first round of Roland Garros. Only three seeded players failed to make it through, although all three upsets were biggies – Dinara Safina is out, losing 7-5 in the third to Kimiko Date-Krumm. It's a great win for Date-Krumm, but a horrible loss for Safina, who may have to kiss her Top 20 ranking goodbye before it's all said and done. If Svetlana Kuznetsova can win her second-round match, she'll knock Safina down to 19th, with Zvonareva, Rezai and Henin all within 100 points of her. If Zvonareva reaches the third round and either Henin or Rezai reaches the Round of 16, that will be enough to do it. That's a long way to fall for the player who was No. 1 at this tournament last year.
Also out are Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez and Victoria Azarenka. Martinez Sanchez's loss came out of nowhere – straight sets to Akgul Amanmuradova. Azarenka's was less so – she went down to Gisela Dulko, a player who's got a pretty impressive list of upsets to her name. It was the score of the loss, 6-1, 6-2, that was shocking.
Svetlana Kuznetsova was a pleasant surprise. She started horribly against Sorana Cirstea, a player I picked for the upset but then ended excellently. We'll see what the future holds for the defending champion. She's in the least predictable quarter, but if she can get through, she's the most accomplished clay-courter in the bottom half. I'm not sold on her yet, but that first round was a great start.
Also in that quarter was Caroline Wozniacki, who also got off to a strong start after a horrid spring. She's got a brutal draw to get through before we can start talking seriously about her, but she's taken the first step.
There's not much to write home about in the bottom quarter, in this round. With Sanchez and Azarenka out, Dementieva's path to the quarters opened up nicely. Meanwhile, we could be in for a couple barnburners - Venus Williams vs. Dominika Cibulkova and Nadia Petrova vs. Aravane Rezai in the third round in the bottom section.
The top half is still, by far, the tougher half of the draw. Jelena Jankovic has to be the favorite to come out of her quarter, but she probably has one of the tougher second-round matches, against Kaia Kanepi - the same Kaia Kanepi who beat Justine Henin in Fed Cup a few weeks ago. Further down the road, she could have a revenge match against Alona Bondarenko, who topped her in Australia. Her Round of 16 shouldn't be too much trouble, and then just about anybody could come out of that bottom section for the quarters.
The biggest ring in the women's circus continues to be the top quarter. Serena Williams got a tough first set, but an easy second from Stefanie Voegele. It's still hard to see her not coming out of her section. Shahar Peer looked good and had a strong spring, but Marion Bartoli could be a tough Round of 16.
THE match of the third round could be Maria Sharapova vs. Justine Henin. Sharapova had a solid win over compatriot Ksenia Pervak and now gets Belgian Kirsten Flipkens. Watch that match if you get a chance. Flipkens is fun to watch if she's playing well - she'll show Sharapova something different and might actually be a nice warm-up for a possible Henin match.
In my pre-tournament prediction, I picked Henin to win. Mainly, that was because she has so much more margin for error in her game on this surface than the other women do. I don't think she has to be at her best to win - just reasonably close to it. Henin's first-round match was quintessential Justine Henin - not brilliant but good enough in the first set. She took a mental break after going up 2-0 in the second, but then finished strongly. She looked nervous early, but improved as the match went on. Now, she gets Klara Zakapalova, and then possibly Sharapova. Samantha Stosur will most likely be waiting for the winner of that match. And all that just to get to the quarters!
I'll be back as the week goes on with more.