A Close Look at the Top Half of the Women's Draw

I’m not going to lie to you – at 0-2, 0-40, in the third, I was sure the third round of Roland Garros was almost done. Maria Sharapova was going to cruise to victory and get ready for Samantha Stosur in the Round of 16. Then Justine Henin showed up to play.
I guess I should have known better. Henin’s made a career of snatching victory from the jaws of defeat. Just ask Lindsay Davenport, Jennifer Capriati, Anastasia Myskina, Svetlana Kuznetsova, Serena Williams, Kim Clijsters and countless lesser players. Henin is a fan of skydiving, and she tends to take that daredevil attitude onto the tennis court with her.
But when Henin won that 0-40 point, you could already feel the momentum swinging. A service winner and a successful foray to net later, the game was at deuce. Sharapova earned one more point for the two-break lead, but Henin again came to net, and two points later, she stepped back from the brink. When the fans saw that Henin was going to make a match of it, they got behind her, and that gave her more of a lift.
From 1-2, Henin reeled of three straight games and looked firmly in control at 4-2, 40-15. From there, she lost four straight points, dropping serve on a double fault. Sharapova upped her level in that game, and it looked like she was making one last run at the match. If she could only hold serve, the momentum would be back on her side, and she’d give Henin plenty to think about at 4-4.
It never came to that. After Sharapova jumped ahead 30-0, Henin came back, broke in a close game, and then served out the match. Her only miscue came at 5-3, 40-0, when she hit a double fault, but a near-winner on the next point clinched the 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 victory.
Now, Henin joins Samantha Stosur and Shahar Peer – all three have been top players on clay this year – and Serena Williams, who’s also been solid, in the Round of 16. Really, it’s possible to imagine any of the four of them in the semis, especially if Williams is still a little under the weather. I think she’ll find a way to get through Peer, but if that’s a long match, she’ll have a tough quarterfinal.
As for Henin and Stosur, it’s hard to know what to expect. The only history these two have came earlier this year, in Stuttgart, when Henin won that final 6-4, 2-6, 6-1. This will be her fifth consecutive day on the competitive court. Today, she only played one set, and two days ago, it was just four games, but it’s got to be mentally draining, and she probably won’t want to mess around. Stosur should be pretty confident. Even with a set lost, she’s dropped just 18 games in the tournament – and she’s stayed on schedule, so she should be fresher. Henin’s pedigree is hard to argue with though. I think she’ll win that one for the chance to play Williams.
The heavy favorite to be waiting in the semifinals is Jelena Jankovic – it’s been that way since the third round. Jankovic takes on the only other seeded player in her quarter, No. 23 Daniela Hantuchova, for the right to play Jarmila Groth or Yaroslava Shvedova. That’s a pretty nice match at this point in a Grand Slam – if you can get it.
In the long run, though, it’s easy to imagine Jankovic’s draw coming back to hurt her. If she gets to the semis, she’s going to be facing a tough opponent. She seems to lack confidence against Henin, and no doubt, Williams will be ready for her – they went to a third-set tiebreaker when they played in Rome. Her odds against Stosur or Peer are better, but if one of them gets through, no doubt they’ll be brimming with confidence.
There’s still a lot of great tennis to be played in the top half of the draw. Stay tuned to see what happens.