Men's Round of 16 Action

Since when did the women become more interesting than the men? Just a few months ago in Australia, there was so much excitement about Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Juan Martin Del Potro, Andy Roddick and Nikolay Davydenko fighting it out in the late rounds of tournaments. Coming into the Australian Open, the women had Serena Williams, Kim Clijsters and Justin Henin coming back and … well, not much more. The women had a lot of very nice players, but not many you’d pick to win a Grand Slam title.
Now, all of sudden, it feels like we’re on an inevitable march towards Federer vs. Nadal next Sunday. The only player I can imagine having any kind of say about that is Tomas Berdych, who might play Federer in the semifinals. Berdych has been a chronic underachiever in the past, but this season, he seems to be turning that alone. The first step came earlier this year, at Indian Wells, but his Round of 16 victory, 6-4, 7-5, 6-3, might be another turning point – assuming Berdych gets through his quarterfinal, against Mikhail Youzhny. Youzhny, the 11th seed, is also a dangerous talent, and in his Round of 16, he took out Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who retired after the first set with a leg injury.
Meanwhile, in the top half of the draw, we get a rematch of last year’s final, with Federer playing Robin Soderling. Soderling did well to get through Albert Montanes in the third round, and he stayed with a game Marin Cilic through two sets and then ran away with the match in the third. Federer got a little bit of a test against German Julian Reister in the third round and also in the second set of his Round of 16 match-up, against compatriot Stanislas Wawrinka. The first and third sets of that match went easily in his favor, and it’s hard to imagine him not getting through Soderling. No doubt, the Swede will give Federer a stiffer test than he’s had so far, but Federer should still get through that one –likely without losing a set. He’s just a different player in best-of-five than he is in best-of-three.
Tomorrow, the men finish their Round of 16. Again, there’s just not much to say here. I fully expect Melzer, Djokovic and Nadal to get through. Let’s give some credit to their opponents, though. Bellucci is a younger player who’s been steadily improving, and there were expectations for him here. To have expectations is one thing; to live up to them is something completely different. Teimuraz Gabashvili and Robby Ginepri are surprises to be in the tournament at this point – Gabashvili as a qualifier and Ginepri as the last man in the main draw. Both have far exceeded expectations, although their runs seem likely to end here.
The most interesting Round of 16 match by far, will be Fernando Verdasco vs. Nicolas Almagro. Both men have looked good on clay this year, both have been a little up-and-down here, and both had the terrible luck of being drawn in Nadal’s quarter – and against each other. Almagro should be a little fresher, and I’m giving him a slight edge for that reason. I don’t expect either of them to give Nadal much trouble, though.
It seems that Djokovic will be the likely semifinal opponent for Nadal. These two haven’t played on clay this year, and no doubt, Djokovic is very capable on the surface. The way this clay-court season has gone, though, a win over Nadal would be an enormous upset. Make no mistake about that.