The circus that is the women's draw held surprisingly to form in the first round of Roland Garros. Only three seeded players failed to make it through, although all three upsets were biggies – Dinara Safina is out, losing 7-5 in the third to Kimiko Date-Krumm. It's a great win for Date-Krumm, but a horrible loss for Safina, who may have to kiss her Top 20 ranking goodbye before it's all said and done. If Svetlana Kuznetsova can win her second-round match, she'll knock Safina down to 19th, with Zvonareva, Rezai and Henin all within 100 points of her. If Zvonareva reaches the third round and either Henin or Rezai reaches the Round of 16, that will be enough to do it. That's a long way to fall for the player who was No. 1 at this tournament last year.
Also out are Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez and Victoria Azarenka. Martinez Sanchez's loss came out of nowhere – straight sets to Akgul Amanmuradova. Azarenka's was less so – she went down to Gisela Dulko, a player who's got a pretty impressive list of upsets to her name. It was the score of the loss, 6-1, 6-2, that was shocking.
Svetlana Kuznetsova was a pleasant surprise. She started horribly against Sorana Cirstea, a player I picked for the upset but then ended excellently. We'll see what the future holds for the defending champion. She's in the least predictable quarter, but if she can get through, she's the most accomplished clay-courter in the bottom half. I'm not sold on her yet, but that first round was a great start.
Also in that quarter was Caroline Wozniacki, who also got off to a strong start after a horrid spring. She's got a brutal draw to get through before we can start talking seriously about her, but she's taken the first step.
There's not much to write home about in the bottom quarter, in this round. With Sanchez and Azarenka out, Dementieva's path to the quarters opened up nicely. Meanwhile, we could be in for a couple barnburners - Venus Williams vs. Dominika Cibulkova and Nadia Petrova vs. Aravane Rezai in the third round in the bottom section.
The top half is still, by far, the tougher half of the draw. Jelena Jankovic has to be the favorite to come out of her quarter, but she probably has one of the tougher second-round matches, against Kaia Kanepi - the same Kaia Kanepi who beat Justine Henin in Fed Cup a few weeks ago. Further down the road, she could have a revenge match against Alona Bondarenko, who topped her in Australia. Her Round of 16 shouldn't be too much trouble, and then just about anybody could come out of that bottom section for the quarters.
The biggest ring in the women's circus continues to be the top quarter. Serena Williams got a tough first set, but an easy second from Stefanie Voegele. It's still hard to see her not coming out of her section. Shahar Peer looked good and had a strong spring, but Marion Bartoli could be a tough Round of 16.
THE match of the third round could be Maria Sharapova vs. Justine Henin. Sharapova had a solid win over compatriot Ksenia Pervak and now gets Belgian Kirsten Flipkens. Watch that match if you get a chance. Flipkens is fun to watch if she's playing well - she'll show Sharapova something different and might actually be a nice warm-up for a possible Henin match.
In my pre-tournament prediction, I picked Henin to win. Mainly, that was because she has so much more margin for error in her game on this surface than the other women do. I don't think she has to be at her best to win - just reasonably close to it. Henin's first-round match was quintessential Justine Henin - not brilliant but good enough in the first set. She took a mental break after going up 2-0 in the second, but then finished strongly. She looked nervous early, but improved as the match went on. Now, she gets Klara Zakapalova, and then possibly Sharapova. Samantha Stosur will most likely be waiting for the winner of that match. And all that just to get to the quarters!
I'll be back as the week goes on with more.
Showing posts with label Dinara Safina. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dinara Safina. Show all posts
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
Roland Garros Seed Analysis – The Women
No Favorites This Year
The women’s field is much different from the men’s. With the men, we have a pretty well-defined heirarchy – Nadal, Federer, etc. – but the women haven’t developed anything close to that; most of the top players have been injured or out of form on the clay this year. The big titles on so far have gone to Justine Henin (Stuttgart), Maria Jose Martinez (Rome) and Aravane Rezai (Madrid), none of whom was even in the top 20 when they won their titles, and they might be as good a place to start as any. Rezai now enters Paris with home-Slam pressure, and if she has any doubt about what that is like, all she has to do is talk to Amelie Mauresmo. She does have a Round of 16 result from last year, though, so maybe she can make a run.
Martinez is entering Roland Garros as a legitimate dark horse, too. She reached the third round last year and put up a fight against Serena Williams. With that big clay tournament win in Rome, she certainly can’t be dismissed.
For both of these two, their tournament wins have come the hard way. Martinez beat Caroline Wozniacki, Ana Ivanovic and Jelena Jankovic in Rome, and Rezai beat Henin, Jankovic and Venus Williams at Madrid. It remains to be seen if they can duplicate those results in a major, but both know they can beat the top players. I doubt they’ll be around on the final weekend, but could they be alive beyond the first weekend? Possibly.
As surprising as it sounds, Henin might be the biggest unknown of these three. Stuttgart was her first title after coming out of retirement at the start of the year, and that win was sandwiched between a couple uncharacteristic losses. She’s had health questions, with injury and illness affecting her results, but if she’s fit, Henin has, by far, the best clay resume of any woman in the draw, with four wins and a semifinal between 2001 and 2007 and she hasn’t lost a set since the fourth round – in 2005. If she’s not fit, well, she’s also had first-round (2002) and second-round (2004) losses in that same span.
The Top Players
Serena and Venus Williams will enter Roland Garros seeded first and second for the first time since the 2003 Australian Open. Venus comes in with some confidence, having reached the finals of Madrid, so she’s got to be considered a contender. Tough losses to Jankovic and Rezai have to raise questions, though. Serena comes into Paris without a title, but after hurting her knee in Australia, she shouldn’t have been looking to win Rome and Madrid – she should have been looking to win matches, which she did. Perhaps most importantly, she’ll come into Roland Garros motivated – if she can lift the trophy here, she’ll have a good chance of winning the Grand Slam this season. No doubt, she’s a threat.
Wozniacki, now the third seed, is defending Round of 16 points, but she's been in dismal form since hurting her ankle at Charleston. She’s got to step up if she wants to live up to her seeding this year.
One player who has stepped up on the clay is Jelena Jankovic. After winning Indian Wells earlier this year, she came onto the clay, and she’s been to the latter rounds of each of the big events, but she doesn’t have a title to show for it. Now the fourth-ranked player, she’s got to be expecting to be around late in the second week.
The players who probably have the most to lose are the defending finalists, Svetlana Kuznetsova and Dinara Safina. Since winning the title last year, Kuznetsova’s results have been awful, and she’s now got just less than half her points wrapped up in Paris. In her defense, Safina’s been injured, but talk is that her practice time is limited, and she hasn’t been doing much winning since her return. An early loss in Paris could put them both on the wrong side of the Top 16 – that’s a long way for players with their talent to fall.
Samantha Stosur was hot to start the clay season, winning the Charleston tournament and finishing runner-up to Henin in Stuttgart. She then lost 6-3, 6-3 to Venus in Madrid. As a defending semifinalist, she has a track record that suggests she could go far, but if she’s going to win, she’ll have to beat players like Henin and Venus. No doubt she’s a darkhorse, but a winner? Maybe not.
Anyone Else?
Elena Dementieva, the fifth-ranked player, is a quiet threat. She’s had good results in Paris but has been quiet this year. Agnieszka Radwanska (Round of 16) and Vika Azarenka (quarterfinals) could do well, or they could flame out early if they run into a tough draw. Azarenka especially, has disappointed, disappearing after giving Serena a huge scare in Australia.
Shahar Peer and Lucie Safarova have done well on the clay and could out-perform their seeds. Nadia Petrova, as a two-time semifinalist, will always be a tough out in Paris – and she’s coming in with a win over Serena. Keep an eye on her early.
Maria Sharapova is defending quarterfinalist points in Paris, but she’s also been injured. She might need help from the draw if she’s going to do well this year. The Italians, Flavia Pennetta and Francesca Schiavone were both first-round losers last year, but both are comfortable on clay. They should do better this year, although neither is likely to be around for the final weekend.
Na Li reached the Round of 16 last year but after reaching the semifinals in Australia, she’s also been quiet. Dominika Cibulkova is defending semifinalist points but she’s barely been heard from since last year. An early loss will send her plummeting.
The top French player is Marion Bartoli, but as of right now, her results haven’t suggested she’s capable of living up to her seeding. Vera Zvonareva has been to the quarterfinals in Paris before and isn’t defending anything this year, although her results haven’t been up to par, either.
It’s a packed crowd in the women’s field, no doubt about it. Perhaps more so than with the men, the draw is going to tell a lot about who can and can’t win this year. At this point, I wouldn't even want to begin to guess at what's going to happen.
Come back later this week, for more on Roland Garros.
The women’s field is much different from the men’s. With the men, we have a pretty well-defined heirarchy – Nadal, Federer, etc. – but the women haven’t developed anything close to that; most of the top players have been injured or out of form on the clay this year. The big titles on so far have gone to Justine Henin (Stuttgart), Maria Jose Martinez (Rome) and Aravane Rezai (Madrid), none of whom was even in the top 20 when they won their titles, and they might be as good a place to start as any. Rezai now enters Paris with home-Slam pressure, and if she has any doubt about what that is like, all she has to do is talk to Amelie Mauresmo. She does have a Round of 16 result from last year, though, so maybe she can make a run.
Martinez is entering Roland Garros as a legitimate dark horse, too. She reached the third round last year and put up a fight against Serena Williams. With that big clay tournament win in Rome, she certainly can’t be dismissed.
For both of these two, their tournament wins have come the hard way. Martinez beat Caroline Wozniacki, Ana Ivanovic and Jelena Jankovic in Rome, and Rezai beat Henin, Jankovic and Venus Williams at Madrid. It remains to be seen if they can duplicate those results in a major, but both know they can beat the top players. I doubt they’ll be around on the final weekend, but could they be alive beyond the first weekend? Possibly.
As surprising as it sounds, Henin might be the biggest unknown of these three. Stuttgart was her first title after coming out of retirement at the start of the year, and that win was sandwiched between a couple uncharacteristic losses. She’s had health questions, with injury and illness affecting her results, but if she’s fit, Henin has, by far, the best clay resume of any woman in the draw, with four wins and a semifinal between 2001 and 2007 and she hasn’t lost a set since the fourth round – in 2005. If she’s not fit, well, she’s also had first-round (2002) and second-round (2004) losses in that same span.
The Top Players
Serena and Venus Williams will enter Roland Garros seeded first and second for the first time since the 2003 Australian Open. Venus comes in with some confidence, having reached the finals of Madrid, so she’s got to be considered a contender. Tough losses to Jankovic and Rezai have to raise questions, though. Serena comes into Paris without a title, but after hurting her knee in Australia, she shouldn’t have been looking to win Rome and Madrid – she should have been looking to win matches, which she did. Perhaps most importantly, she’ll come into Roland Garros motivated – if she can lift the trophy here, she’ll have a good chance of winning the Grand Slam this season. No doubt, she’s a threat.
Wozniacki, now the third seed, is defending Round of 16 points, but she's been in dismal form since hurting her ankle at Charleston. She’s got to step up if she wants to live up to her seeding this year.
One player who has stepped up on the clay is Jelena Jankovic. After winning Indian Wells earlier this year, she came onto the clay, and she’s been to the latter rounds of each of the big events, but she doesn’t have a title to show for it. Now the fourth-ranked player, she’s got to be expecting to be around late in the second week.
The players who probably have the most to lose are the defending finalists, Svetlana Kuznetsova and Dinara Safina. Since winning the title last year, Kuznetsova’s results have been awful, and she’s now got just less than half her points wrapped up in Paris. In her defense, Safina’s been injured, but talk is that her practice time is limited, and she hasn’t been doing much winning since her return. An early loss in Paris could put them both on the wrong side of the Top 16 – that’s a long way for players with their talent to fall.
Samantha Stosur was hot to start the clay season, winning the Charleston tournament and finishing runner-up to Henin in Stuttgart. She then lost 6-3, 6-3 to Venus in Madrid. As a defending semifinalist, she has a track record that suggests she could go far, but if she’s going to win, she’ll have to beat players like Henin and Venus. No doubt she’s a darkhorse, but a winner? Maybe not.
Anyone Else?
Elena Dementieva, the fifth-ranked player, is a quiet threat. She’s had good results in Paris but has been quiet this year. Agnieszka Radwanska (Round of 16) and Vika Azarenka (quarterfinals) could do well, or they could flame out early if they run into a tough draw. Azarenka especially, has disappointed, disappearing after giving Serena a huge scare in Australia.
Shahar Peer and Lucie Safarova have done well on the clay and could out-perform their seeds. Nadia Petrova, as a two-time semifinalist, will always be a tough out in Paris – and she’s coming in with a win over Serena. Keep an eye on her early.
Maria Sharapova is defending quarterfinalist points in Paris, but she’s also been injured. She might need help from the draw if she’s going to do well this year. The Italians, Flavia Pennetta and Francesca Schiavone were both first-round losers last year, but both are comfortable on clay. They should do better this year, although neither is likely to be around for the final weekend.
Na Li reached the Round of 16 last year but after reaching the semifinals in Australia, she’s also been quiet. Dominika Cibulkova is defending semifinalist points but she’s barely been heard from since last year. An early loss will send her plummeting.
The top French player is Marion Bartoli, but as of right now, her results haven’t suggested she’s capable of living up to her seeding. Vera Zvonareva has been to the quarterfinals in Paris before and isn’t defending anything this year, although her results haven’t been up to par, either.
It’s a packed crowd in the women’s field, no doubt about it. Perhaps more so than with the men, the draw is going to tell a lot about who can and can’t win this year. At this point, I wouldn't even want to begin to guess at what's going to happen.
Come back later this week, for more on Roland Garros.
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