God bless Tennis Channel – if it weren’t for them, tennis fans like me would be lost. So far, I’ve been able to see bits and pieces of all four women’s Round of 16 matches, and it paints a fascinating idea of who’s looking good to do what.
The match I saw the least of was Maria Kirilenko vs. Fracesca Schiavone. Schiavone had a favorable record – head-to-head and in Grand Slams – coming in, but this really looked like a missed opportunity for Kirilenko. From the few games I saw, she spent 90 percent of the time in a winning position but too many times, she couldn’t put away the last shot. Then, at 4-5 in both sets, Schiavone was just a little better. And now, she’s in the quarterfinals of a Grand Slam for the third time in her career.
Now Schiavone gets to play Caroline Wozniacki for a shot at her first Grand Slam semifinal. The third seed knocked off Flavia Pennetta 7-6 (5), 6-7 (4), 6-2 in the longest women’s match of the day.
I watched Wozniacki for the first time during the U.S. Open last year, a little bit in the semis, but mostly in the finals. Watching her today, I admit to being very disappointed. I thought I remembered Wozniacki being more offensive than this. It’s not just that she plays so much defense; it’s that she so rarely even tried to get on offense, to say nothing of going for winners. That might have worked against Pennetta, but it will be interesting to see what she does against Schiavone and possibly in the semis. It’s hard to imagine Wozniacki lifting a trophy on the final weekend if she’s going to continue playing this way. Eventually, she’ll have to play a little offense.
If Pennetta had gone for a little more early on against Wozniacki – she served for the first set – we would be talking about an all-Italian quarterfinal. No doubt about it, fortune favors the brave, and Pennetta wasn’t brave enough to advance.
In the bottom quarter, Elena Dementieva will be playing Nadia Petrova. Dementieva’s come through a pretty soft draw, but at this point, I can’t honestly say I’m blown away by her play. She had a close match against Alexandra Wozniak and hardly looked brilliant against qualifier Chanelle Scheepers. I had her penciled into the finals before the tournament, but she’s going to have to step up if she wants to duplicate her 2004 result.
Petrova on the other had, was coming off a barn-burner against Aravane Rezai, and it would have been easy for her to have a letdown against Venus Williams. Instead, she continued to roll, taking the match 6-4, 6-3. Now, Petrova has a few factors acting in her favor here – she has a nice head of steam behind her, she’s attacking well and she’s reached the semifinals here twice before. It’s not at all impossible to imagine her in the finals right now. Might she be ready to take that next step?
Fearless prediction from today’s play: Roger Federer will qualify for his ninth straight Grand Slam final.
Fearful prediction: The winner of Dementieva/Petrova reaches the women’s final – both have the offense to get through. Not only that, but both have the talent to win the title.
Sunday, May 30, 2010
Men's Round of 16 Action
Since when did the women become more interesting than the men? Just a few months ago in Australia, there was so much excitement about Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Juan Martin Del Potro, Andy Roddick and Nikolay Davydenko fighting it out in the late rounds of tournaments. Coming into the Australian Open, the women had Serena Williams, Kim Clijsters and Justin Henin coming back and … well, not much more. The women had a lot of very nice players, but not many you’d pick to win a Grand Slam title.
Now, all of sudden, it feels like we’re on an inevitable march towards Federer vs. Nadal next Sunday. The only player I can imagine having any kind of say about that is Tomas Berdych, who might play Federer in the semifinals. Berdych has been a chronic underachiever in the past, but this season, he seems to be turning that alone. The first step came earlier this year, at Indian Wells, but his Round of 16 victory, 6-4, 7-5, 6-3, might be another turning point – assuming Berdych gets through his quarterfinal, against Mikhail Youzhny. Youzhny, the 11th seed, is also a dangerous talent, and in his Round of 16, he took out Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who retired after the first set with a leg injury.
Meanwhile, in the top half of the draw, we get a rematch of last year’s final, with Federer playing Robin Soderling. Soderling did well to get through Albert Montanes in the third round, and he stayed with a game Marin Cilic through two sets and then ran away with the match in the third. Federer got a little bit of a test against German Julian Reister in the third round and also in the second set of his Round of 16 match-up, against compatriot Stanislas Wawrinka. The first and third sets of that match went easily in his favor, and it’s hard to imagine him not getting through Soderling. No doubt, the Swede will give Federer a stiffer test than he’s had so far, but Federer should still get through that one –likely without losing a set. He’s just a different player in best-of-five than he is in best-of-three.
Tomorrow, the men finish their Round of 16. Again, there’s just not much to say here. I fully expect Melzer, Djokovic and Nadal to get through. Let’s give some credit to their opponents, though. Bellucci is a younger player who’s been steadily improving, and there were expectations for him here. To have expectations is one thing; to live up to them is something completely different. Teimuraz Gabashvili and Robby Ginepri are surprises to be in the tournament at this point – Gabashvili as a qualifier and Ginepri as the last man in the main draw. Both have far exceeded expectations, although their runs seem likely to end here.
The most interesting Round of 16 match by far, will be Fernando Verdasco vs. Nicolas Almagro. Both men have looked good on clay this year, both have been a little up-and-down here, and both had the terrible luck of being drawn in Nadal’s quarter – and against each other. Almagro should be a little fresher, and I’m giving him a slight edge for that reason. I don’t expect either of them to give Nadal much trouble, though.
It seems that Djokovic will be the likely semifinal opponent for Nadal. These two haven’t played on clay this year, and no doubt, Djokovic is very capable on the surface. The way this clay-court season has gone, though, a win over Nadal would be an enormous upset. Make no mistake about that.
Now, all of sudden, it feels like we’re on an inevitable march towards Federer vs. Nadal next Sunday. The only player I can imagine having any kind of say about that is Tomas Berdych, who might play Federer in the semifinals. Berdych has been a chronic underachiever in the past, but this season, he seems to be turning that alone. The first step came earlier this year, at Indian Wells, but his Round of 16 victory, 6-4, 7-5, 6-3, might be another turning point – assuming Berdych gets through his quarterfinal, against Mikhail Youzhny. Youzhny, the 11th seed, is also a dangerous talent, and in his Round of 16, he took out Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who retired after the first set with a leg injury.
Meanwhile, in the top half of the draw, we get a rematch of last year’s final, with Federer playing Robin Soderling. Soderling did well to get through Albert Montanes in the third round, and he stayed with a game Marin Cilic through two sets and then ran away with the match in the third. Federer got a little bit of a test against German Julian Reister in the third round and also in the second set of his Round of 16 match-up, against compatriot Stanislas Wawrinka. The first and third sets of that match went easily in his favor, and it’s hard to imagine him not getting through Soderling. No doubt, the Swede will give Federer a stiffer test than he’s had so far, but Federer should still get through that one –likely without losing a set. He’s just a different player in best-of-five than he is in best-of-three.
Tomorrow, the men finish their Round of 16. Again, there’s just not much to say here. I fully expect Melzer, Djokovic and Nadal to get through. Let’s give some credit to their opponents, though. Bellucci is a younger player who’s been steadily improving, and there were expectations for him here. To have expectations is one thing; to live up to them is something completely different. Teimuraz Gabashvili and Robby Ginepri are surprises to be in the tournament at this point – Gabashvili as a qualifier and Ginepri as the last man in the main draw. Both have far exceeded expectations, although their runs seem likely to end here.
The most interesting Round of 16 match by far, will be Fernando Verdasco vs. Nicolas Almagro. Both men have looked good on clay this year, both have been a little up-and-down here, and both had the terrible luck of being drawn in Nadal’s quarter – and against each other. Almagro should be a little fresher, and I’m giving him a slight edge for that reason. I don’t expect either of them to give Nadal much trouble, though.
It seems that Djokovic will be the likely semifinal opponent for Nadal. These two haven’t played on clay this year, and no doubt, Djokovic is very capable on the surface. The way this clay-court season has gone, though, a win over Nadal would be an enormous upset. Make no mistake about that.
A Close Look at the Top Half of the Women's Draw
I’m not going to lie to you – at 0-2, 0-40, in the third, I was sure the third round of Roland Garros was almost done. Maria Sharapova was going to cruise to victory and get ready for Samantha Stosur in the Round of 16. Then Justine Henin showed up to play.
I guess I should have known better. Henin’s made a career of snatching victory from the jaws of defeat. Just ask Lindsay Davenport, Jennifer Capriati, Anastasia Myskina, Svetlana Kuznetsova, Serena Williams, Kim Clijsters and countless lesser players. Henin is a fan of skydiving, and she tends to take that daredevil attitude onto the tennis court with her.
But when Henin won that 0-40 point, you could already feel the momentum swinging. A service winner and a successful foray to net later, the game was at deuce. Sharapova earned one more point for the two-break lead, but Henin again came to net, and two points later, she stepped back from the brink. When the fans saw that Henin was going to make a match of it, they got behind her, and that gave her more of a lift.
From 1-2, Henin reeled of three straight games and looked firmly in control at 4-2, 40-15. From there, she lost four straight points, dropping serve on a double fault. Sharapova upped her level in that game, and it looked like she was making one last run at the match. If she could only hold serve, the momentum would be back on her side, and she’d give Henin plenty to think about at 4-4.
It never came to that. After Sharapova jumped ahead 30-0, Henin came back, broke in a close game, and then served out the match. Her only miscue came at 5-3, 40-0, when she hit a double fault, but a near-winner on the next point clinched the 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 victory.
Now, Henin joins Samantha Stosur and Shahar Peer – all three have been top players on clay this year – and Serena Williams, who’s also been solid, in the Round of 16. Really, it’s possible to imagine any of the four of them in the semis, especially if Williams is still a little under the weather. I think she’ll find a way to get through Peer, but if that’s a long match, she’ll have a tough quarterfinal.
As for Henin and Stosur, it’s hard to know what to expect. The only history these two have came earlier this year, in Stuttgart, when Henin won that final 6-4, 2-6, 6-1. This will be her fifth consecutive day on the competitive court. Today, she only played one set, and two days ago, it was just four games, but it’s got to be mentally draining, and she probably won’t want to mess around. Stosur should be pretty confident. Even with a set lost, she’s dropped just 18 games in the tournament – and she’s stayed on schedule, so she should be fresher. Henin’s pedigree is hard to argue with though. I think she’ll win that one for the chance to play Williams.
The heavy favorite to be waiting in the semifinals is Jelena Jankovic – it’s been that way since the third round. Jankovic takes on the only other seeded player in her quarter, No. 23 Daniela Hantuchova, for the right to play Jarmila Groth or Yaroslava Shvedova. That’s a pretty nice match at this point in a Grand Slam – if you can get it.
In the long run, though, it’s easy to imagine Jankovic’s draw coming back to hurt her. If she gets to the semis, she’s going to be facing a tough opponent. She seems to lack confidence against Henin, and no doubt, Williams will be ready for her – they went to a third-set tiebreaker when they played in Rome. Her odds against Stosur or Peer are better, but if one of them gets through, no doubt they’ll be brimming with confidence.
There’s still a lot of great tennis to be played in the top half of the draw. Stay tuned to see what happens.
I guess I should have known better. Henin’s made a career of snatching victory from the jaws of defeat. Just ask Lindsay Davenport, Jennifer Capriati, Anastasia Myskina, Svetlana Kuznetsova, Serena Williams, Kim Clijsters and countless lesser players. Henin is a fan of skydiving, and she tends to take that daredevil attitude onto the tennis court with her.
But when Henin won that 0-40 point, you could already feel the momentum swinging. A service winner and a successful foray to net later, the game was at deuce. Sharapova earned one more point for the two-break lead, but Henin again came to net, and two points later, she stepped back from the brink. When the fans saw that Henin was going to make a match of it, they got behind her, and that gave her more of a lift.
From 1-2, Henin reeled of three straight games and looked firmly in control at 4-2, 40-15. From there, she lost four straight points, dropping serve on a double fault. Sharapova upped her level in that game, and it looked like she was making one last run at the match. If she could only hold serve, the momentum would be back on her side, and she’d give Henin plenty to think about at 4-4.
It never came to that. After Sharapova jumped ahead 30-0, Henin came back, broke in a close game, and then served out the match. Her only miscue came at 5-3, 40-0, when she hit a double fault, but a near-winner on the next point clinched the 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 victory.
Now, Henin joins Samantha Stosur and Shahar Peer – all three have been top players on clay this year – and Serena Williams, who’s also been solid, in the Round of 16. Really, it’s possible to imagine any of the four of them in the semis, especially if Williams is still a little under the weather. I think she’ll find a way to get through Peer, but if that’s a long match, she’ll have a tough quarterfinal.
As for Henin and Stosur, it’s hard to know what to expect. The only history these two have came earlier this year, in Stuttgart, when Henin won that final 6-4, 2-6, 6-1. This will be her fifth consecutive day on the competitive court. Today, she only played one set, and two days ago, it was just four games, but it’s got to be mentally draining, and she probably won’t want to mess around. Stosur should be pretty confident. Even with a set lost, she’s dropped just 18 games in the tournament – and she’s stayed on schedule, so she should be fresher. Henin’s pedigree is hard to argue with though. I think she’ll win that one for the chance to play Williams.
The heavy favorite to be waiting in the semifinals is Jelena Jankovic – it’s been that way since the third round. Jankovic takes on the only other seeded player in her quarter, No. 23 Daniela Hantuchova, for the right to play Jarmila Groth or Yaroslava Shvedova. That’s a pretty nice match at this point in a Grand Slam – if you can get it.
In the long run, though, it’s easy to imagine Jankovic’s draw coming back to hurt her. If she gets to the semis, she’s going to be facing a tough opponent. She seems to lack confidence against Henin, and no doubt, Williams will be ready for her – they went to a third-set tiebreaker when they played in Rome. Her odds against Stosur or Peer are better, but if one of them gets through, no doubt they’ll be brimming with confidence.
There’s still a lot of great tennis to be played in the top half of the draw. Stay tuned to see what happens.
Saturday, May 29, 2010
Day 7 and Still Behind
You really have to wonder what Roland Garros organizers are thinking this year. The questionable decisions started early, when two of their own players, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Richard Gasquet, requested later starts and were denied. Gasquet lost his first round match to Andy Murray, and Tsonga nearly did, to Daniel Brands of Germany. Later a couple of matches - Gael Monfils vs. Fabio Fognini and Nadia Petrova vs. Aravane Rezai - were not suspended when they should have been. Now, organizers put THE match of the third round, Maria Sharapova vs. Justine Henin on court last, which was bad enough before Petrova vs. Rezai was suspended. Now, those two have to come back tomorrow to play one set and then play a rested Samantha Stosur Monday. The winner of that match will have played five days in a row - at a Grand Slam, in the toughest quarter of the women's draw. Between this match and Serena Williams' illness, Stosur's odds of getting to the quarters and maybe even further are suddenly looking much better.
Meanwhile, the third quarter of the men's draw, one of the most wide-open quarters, suddenly got much less wide-open Saturday. David Ferrer losing was a stunner; Andy Roddick, a little less so. Roddick should be kicking himself. I know he hasn't had any matches on clay this year, but to lose in straight sets to a qualifier and then to watch the toughest player in his section go out? The tennis gods were kind to him, and he didn't take advantage.
That quarter should now belong to Novak Djokovic. The third seed now gets to play Robby Ginepri, one of the luckiest men in the draw, for the right to play the winner of Melzer/Gabashvili to get to the semis. Ginepri shouldn't have been anywhere near the main draw, but a massive number of withdrawals on the men's side got him in automatically, and Saturday, he out-toughed Juan Carlos Ferrero. Good for him for taking advantage of his opportunity.
Meanwhile, in the bottom quarter, we've got Nadal vs. Bellucci and Almagro vs. Verdasco. I've liked Nadal the whole way, but I've been going back and forth on Almagro/Verdasco. Right now, I'm leaning slightly towards Almagro - he's looked good since a tough first round - but I don't think Verdasco's going to roll over easily.
Meanwhile, on the women's side, who knows what to expect? Serena was looking great until the second set of her match against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. Now, if she is under the weather, is she going to recover in time to be able to beat Peer, who's been one of the better clay-court players this spring? Who's going to come through the Sharapova/Henin match now? Since going down 0-4 in the first, Sharapova looked pretty good, and once she survived those three break points at 3-3, she rolled through the rest of the second. Henin, on the other side, looked brilliant in the first four games, but after that, it seemed she lost focus in the conditions. Was it really a good idea for Sharapova to want to stop when the momentum so clearly on her side? Well, if nothing else, she should go to bed tonight thinking she has a real chance tomorrow.
The way the upsets have fallen, Jelena Jankovic and Caroline Wozniacki suddenly have to love their odds of being around late next week. For Venus Williams, the real tournament starts now - she's got former semifinalist Nadia Petrova up next for the right to play former finalist Elena Dementieva in the quarters - probably. Dementieva's had a nice draw, but she's been inconsistent, and her opponent, Chanelle Scheepers, has won six matches on the clay. Still, it's hard to imagine Dementieva not coming through there.
I'll be back with more tomorrow.
Meanwhile, the third quarter of the men's draw, one of the most wide-open quarters, suddenly got much less wide-open Saturday. David Ferrer losing was a stunner; Andy Roddick, a little less so. Roddick should be kicking himself. I know he hasn't had any matches on clay this year, but to lose in straight sets to a qualifier and then to watch the toughest player in his section go out? The tennis gods were kind to him, and he didn't take advantage.
That quarter should now belong to Novak Djokovic. The third seed now gets to play Robby Ginepri, one of the luckiest men in the draw, for the right to play the winner of Melzer/Gabashvili to get to the semis. Ginepri shouldn't have been anywhere near the main draw, but a massive number of withdrawals on the men's side got him in automatically, and Saturday, he out-toughed Juan Carlos Ferrero. Good for him for taking advantage of his opportunity.
Meanwhile, in the bottom quarter, we've got Nadal vs. Bellucci and Almagro vs. Verdasco. I've liked Nadal the whole way, but I've been going back and forth on Almagro/Verdasco. Right now, I'm leaning slightly towards Almagro - he's looked good since a tough first round - but I don't think Verdasco's going to roll over easily.
Meanwhile, on the women's side, who knows what to expect? Serena was looking great until the second set of her match against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. Now, if she is under the weather, is she going to recover in time to be able to beat Peer, who's been one of the better clay-court players this spring? Who's going to come through the Sharapova/Henin match now? Since going down 0-4 in the first, Sharapova looked pretty good, and once she survived those three break points at 3-3, she rolled through the rest of the second. Henin, on the other side, looked brilliant in the first four games, but after that, it seemed she lost focus in the conditions. Was it really a good idea for Sharapova to want to stop when the momentum so clearly on her side? Well, if nothing else, she should go to bed tonight thinking she has a real chance tomorrow.
The way the upsets have fallen, Jelena Jankovic and Caroline Wozniacki suddenly have to love their odds of being around late next week. For Venus Williams, the real tournament starts now - she's got former semifinalist Nadia Petrova up next for the right to play former finalist Elena Dementieva in the quarters - probably. Dementieva's had a nice draw, but she's been inconsistent, and her opponent, Chanelle Scheepers, has won six matches on the clay. Still, it's hard to imagine Dementieva not coming through there.
I'll be back with more tomorrow.
Friday, May 28, 2010
Tennis' Big Day
It doesn't happen very often, but every once in awhile, tennis gives us a gem of the day, most often when nature demands it. Today was no different.
The good news is that the schedule is mostly back on track – there are only two third round matches of those originally-scheduled to day to be played tomorrow, and neither should take too long to finish. Mikhail Youzhny is up a break in the fourth set of his match against Viktor Troicki, and Aravane Rezai and Nadia Petrova are at 7-7 in the third set of their match. Both players can probably look forward to a restless night of sleep, after they blew match points, break points and leads left, right and center throughout the match. And the winner gets a very well-rested Venus Williams in the Round of 16. It should make for interesting action.
The match I thought might be interesting that ended up being one of the biggest blowouts of the day was Tomas Berdych's win over John Isner. Isner lived up to his seed – a good performance on that front, but he's still got plenty of work to do if he's going to turn into one of the big guns on clay.
Part of me says he's broken my heart before, but Berdych is looking like a fair bet to reach the semis. He's well-rested, he's playing well, and all of the remaining players on his schedule have much more tennis than he does under their belts. If he can keep his head – no sure thing, I'll admit – watch out.
I thought the men had some of the more interesting matches today, but most of tomorrow's look pretty straightforward. Ljubicic vs. Bellucci may be the most interesting one. Hewitt vs. Nadal also stands out, if for nothing more than name value.
The women have much more going for them tomorrow. Shahar Peer vs. Marion Bartoli should be interesting. Peer lost the first set, but then came back and dominated Bethanie Mattek-Sands 3-6, 6-0, 6-1 in their second round. Bartoli struggled against compatriot Olivia Sanchez, but she will have the home-court crowd behind her. Also keep an eye on Jankovic vs. Bondarenko, a chance for Jankovic to get revenge for her upset loss in Australia, and Hantuchova vs. Wickmayer. Both could be good matches.
By far, the biggest match of the day will be Maria Sharapova vs. Justine Henin, in the first highly-anticipated match in the top quarter. Sharapova is now on a seven-match winning streak on clay and Henin is Henin. Neither has looked brilliant in their first two matches. I picked Henin at the start of the tournament, and I'm going to stick with her in this one.
(Mostly) Fearless prediction, based on what I've seen so far: Henin's streak of sets won in Paris will end this year. Fearful prediction: Her streak of matches at Roland Garros will not.
The good news is that the schedule is mostly back on track – there are only two third round matches of those originally-scheduled to day to be played tomorrow, and neither should take too long to finish. Mikhail Youzhny is up a break in the fourth set of his match against Viktor Troicki, and Aravane Rezai and Nadia Petrova are at 7-7 in the third set of their match. Both players can probably look forward to a restless night of sleep, after they blew match points, break points and leads left, right and center throughout the match. And the winner gets a very well-rested Venus Williams in the Round of 16. It should make for interesting action.
The match I thought might be interesting that ended up being one of the biggest blowouts of the day was Tomas Berdych's win over John Isner. Isner lived up to his seed – a good performance on that front, but he's still got plenty of work to do if he's going to turn into one of the big guns on clay.
Part of me says he's broken my heart before, but Berdych is looking like a fair bet to reach the semis. He's well-rested, he's playing well, and all of the remaining players on his schedule have much more tennis than he does under their belts. If he can keep his head – no sure thing, I'll admit – watch out.
I thought the men had some of the more interesting matches today, but most of tomorrow's look pretty straightforward. Ljubicic vs. Bellucci may be the most interesting one. Hewitt vs. Nadal also stands out, if for nothing more than name value.
The women have much more going for them tomorrow. Shahar Peer vs. Marion Bartoli should be interesting. Peer lost the first set, but then came back and dominated Bethanie Mattek-Sands 3-6, 6-0, 6-1 in their second round. Bartoli struggled against compatriot Olivia Sanchez, but she will have the home-court crowd behind her. Also keep an eye on Jankovic vs. Bondarenko, a chance for Jankovic to get revenge for her upset loss in Australia, and Hantuchova vs. Wickmayer. Both could be good matches.
By far, the biggest match of the day will be Maria Sharapova vs. Justine Henin, in the first highly-anticipated match in the top quarter. Sharapova is now on a seven-match winning streak on clay and Henin is Henin. Neither has looked brilliant in their first two matches. I picked Henin at the start of the tournament, and I'm going to stick with her in this one.
(Mostly) Fearless prediction, based on what I've seen so far: Henin's streak of sets won in Paris will end this year. Fearful prediction: Her streak of matches at Roland Garros will not.
Thursday, May 27, 2010
Blockbuster Day Tomorrow!
Spare a thought for Fabio Fognini, Andy Murray and John Isner. Those guys were on court late tonight (Paris time) and have to get right back out there for third-round matches tomorrow – assuming the weather cooperates. Marcos Baghdatis will also be hitting the court for the third day in a row, but he only had to play a 6-2 set today and will be getting Murray, who played two-and-a-half sets and ended much later in the day. Baghdatis might have a bit of an advantage there.
Tomorrow should be a great day, tennis-wise. There are currently 87 men's and women's players left in the tournament and 78 of them will be hoping to get their second/third round matches in. A few of them will probably be in for short days – Maria Sharapova and Justine Henin are both in the second set of their matches and Marion Bartoli had just gotten back on serve (she had been down 2-5) when play was suspended.
Crisis Averted: The second quarter of the women's draw didn't blow up – Jelena Jankovic did survive against Kaia Kanepi, 6-4 in the third. Now, she gets a possible revenge match against Alona Bondarenko, who knocked her out of the Australian Open. I like Jankovic in that one. Meanwhile, in that same quarter, Jarmila Groth, Anastasia Rodionova, Alisa Kleybanova or Yaroslava Shvedova is going to be a Grand Slam quarterfinalist. Wow.
A few matches that worth checking out tomorrow: Montanes vs. Soderling, Murray vs. Baghdatis and Isner vs. Berdych on the men's side and Dulgheru vs. Wozniacki, Rezai vs. Petrova and Cibulkova vs. Venus Williams on the women's side.
I'll leave with a fearful and a fearless prediction based on what's happened so far. Fearful prediction: the winner of Isner/Berdych gets to the quarters. Fearless prediction: Federer breaks the record for most weeks at No. 1 – his path to the semis has gotten much easier these first five days in Paris. The tennis gods must love that man.
Tomorrow should be a great day, tennis-wise. There are currently 87 men's and women's players left in the tournament and 78 of them will be hoping to get their second/third round matches in. A few of them will probably be in for short days – Maria Sharapova and Justine Henin are both in the second set of their matches and Marion Bartoli had just gotten back on serve (she had been down 2-5) when play was suspended.
Crisis Averted: The second quarter of the women's draw didn't blow up – Jelena Jankovic did survive against Kaia Kanepi, 6-4 in the third. Now, she gets a possible revenge match against Alona Bondarenko, who knocked her out of the Australian Open. I like Jankovic in that one. Meanwhile, in that same quarter, Jarmila Groth, Anastasia Rodionova, Alisa Kleybanova or Yaroslava Shvedova is going to be a Grand Slam quarterfinalist. Wow.
A few matches that worth checking out tomorrow: Montanes vs. Soderling, Murray vs. Baghdatis and Isner vs. Berdych on the men's side and Dulgheru vs. Wozniacki, Rezai vs. Petrova and Cibulkova vs. Venus Williams on the women's side.
I'll leave with a fearful and a fearless prediction based on what's happened so far. Fearful prediction: the winner of Isner/Berdych gets to the quarters. Fearless prediction: Federer breaks the record for most weeks at No. 1 – his path to the semis has gotten much easier these first five days in Paris. The tennis gods must love that man.
Rain, Rain Go Away
The newest entrant into the Roland Garros draw this year: Mother Nature, and although she won't be holding up a trophy on the final weekend, the players who do win may want to mention her in their acceptance speeches. It is getting late in the day, Paris time, and Day 4 isn't done yet (to say nothing of Day 5!). There are still four men's matches and one women's match to be completed, and only one of them could be completed fairly quickly – Gael Monfils and Fabio Fognini are tied at 5-5 in the fifth, and they'll go on as soon as Jelena Jankovic and Kaia Kanepi complete their third set. You know, I wrote a couple days ago that Kanepi was one of the tougher second-round matches, and sometimes it's nice to be proven right, especially since I'm not getting much right with the women's draw this year.
Anyway, in Day 5 action so far, we have two players in the third round of the women's draw – Jarmila Groth and Alisa Kleybanova, both of whom lost three games. Groth topped Kimiko Date-Krumm and Kleybanova trashed Ana Ivanovic. That's too bad for Ivanovic. She really looked like she was turning her season around this spring, and she was in a section of the draw, where she could have done some real damage.
Now, that entire quarter of the draw is threatening to blow up. Jankovic is in trouble against Kanepi, Vera Zvonareva is down a set and a break to Anastasia Rodionova and Agnieszka Radwanska is almost out against Yaroslava Shvedova. Who knows what's going to happen there?
There's not much to say about the men's draw right now. It doesn't seem likely that we'll get many of their results in today. As I write this, Andy Roddick has split the first two sets of his match against Blaz Kavcic, so they'll be out there for a little while longer. The winner of that match is very likely to play Teimuraz Gabashvili, who is up two sets and a break. He could get off-court quickly once they start playing. Andy Murray and John Isner are getting ready to play again, and Marcos Baghdatis just started the fourth set of his match – he's up two sets to one.
I'll be back with more later.
Anyway, in Day 5 action so far, we have two players in the third round of the women's draw – Jarmila Groth and Alisa Kleybanova, both of whom lost three games. Groth topped Kimiko Date-Krumm and Kleybanova trashed Ana Ivanovic. That's too bad for Ivanovic. She really looked like she was turning her season around this spring, and she was in a section of the draw, where she could have done some real damage.
Now, that entire quarter of the draw is threatening to blow up. Jankovic is in trouble against Kanepi, Vera Zvonareva is down a set and a break to Anastasia Rodionova and Agnieszka Radwanska is almost out against Yaroslava Shvedova. Who knows what's going to happen there?
There's not much to say about the men's draw right now. It doesn't seem likely that we'll get many of their results in today. As I write this, Andy Roddick has split the first two sets of his match against Blaz Kavcic, so they'll be out there for a little while longer. The winner of that match is very likely to play Teimuraz Gabashvili, who is up two sets and a break. He could get off-court quickly once they start playing. Andy Murray and John Isner are getting ready to play again, and Marcos Baghdatis just started the fourth set of his match – he's up two sets to one.
I'll be back with more later.
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
First-round Analysis: The Women
The circus that is the women's draw held surprisingly to form in the first round of Roland Garros. Only three seeded players failed to make it through, although all three upsets were biggies – Dinara Safina is out, losing 7-5 in the third to Kimiko Date-Krumm. It's a great win for Date-Krumm, but a horrible loss for Safina, who may have to kiss her Top 20 ranking goodbye before it's all said and done. If Svetlana Kuznetsova can win her second-round match, she'll knock Safina down to 19th, with Zvonareva, Rezai and Henin all within 100 points of her. If Zvonareva reaches the third round and either Henin or Rezai reaches the Round of 16, that will be enough to do it. That's a long way to fall for the player who was No. 1 at this tournament last year.
Also out are Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez and Victoria Azarenka. Martinez Sanchez's loss came out of nowhere – straight sets to Akgul Amanmuradova. Azarenka's was less so – she went down to Gisela Dulko, a player who's got a pretty impressive list of upsets to her name. It was the score of the loss, 6-1, 6-2, that was shocking.
Svetlana Kuznetsova was a pleasant surprise. She started horribly against Sorana Cirstea, a player I picked for the upset but then ended excellently. We'll see what the future holds for the defending champion. She's in the least predictable quarter, but if she can get through, she's the most accomplished clay-courter in the bottom half. I'm not sold on her yet, but that first round was a great start.
Also in that quarter was Caroline Wozniacki, who also got off to a strong start after a horrid spring. She's got a brutal draw to get through before we can start talking seriously about her, but she's taken the first step.
There's not much to write home about in the bottom quarter, in this round. With Sanchez and Azarenka out, Dementieva's path to the quarters opened up nicely. Meanwhile, we could be in for a couple barnburners - Venus Williams vs. Dominika Cibulkova and Nadia Petrova vs. Aravane Rezai in the third round in the bottom section.
The top half is still, by far, the tougher half of the draw. Jelena Jankovic has to be the favorite to come out of her quarter, but she probably has one of the tougher second-round matches, against Kaia Kanepi - the same Kaia Kanepi who beat Justine Henin in Fed Cup a few weeks ago. Further down the road, she could have a revenge match against Alona Bondarenko, who topped her in Australia. Her Round of 16 shouldn't be too much trouble, and then just about anybody could come out of that bottom section for the quarters.
The biggest ring in the women's circus continues to be the top quarter. Serena Williams got a tough first set, but an easy second from Stefanie Voegele. It's still hard to see her not coming out of her section. Shahar Peer looked good and had a strong spring, but Marion Bartoli could be a tough Round of 16.
THE match of the third round could be Maria Sharapova vs. Justine Henin. Sharapova had a solid win over compatriot Ksenia Pervak and now gets Belgian Kirsten Flipkens. Watch that match if you get a chance. Flipkens is fun to watch if she's playing well - she'll show Sharapova something different and might actually be a nice warm-up for a possible Henin match.
In my pre-tournament prediction, I picked Henin to win. Mainly, that was because she has so much more margin for error in her game on this surface than the other women do. I don't think she has to be at her best to win - just reasonably close to it. Henin's first-round match was quintessential Justine Henin - not brilliant but good enough in the first set. She took a mental break after going up 2-0 in the second, but then finished strongly. She looked nervous early, but improved as the match went on. Now, she gets Klara Zakapalova, and then possibly Sharapova. Samantha Stosur will most likely be waiting for the winner of that match. And all that just to get to the quarters!
I'll be back as the week goes on with more.
Also out are Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez and Victoria Azarenka. Martinez Sanchez's loss came out of nowhere – straight sets to Akgul Amanmuradova. Azarenka's was less so – she went down to Gisela Dulko, a player who's got a pretty impressive list of upsets to her name. It was the score of the loss, 6-1, 6-2, that was shocking.
Svetlana Kuznetsova was a pleasant surprise. She started horribly against Sorana Cirstea, a player I picked for the upset but then ended excellently. We'll see what the future holds for the defending champion. She's in the least predictable quarter, but if she can get through, she's the most accomplished clay-courter in the bottom half. I'm not sold on her yet, but that first round was a great start.
Also in that quarter was Caroline Wozniacki, who also got off to a strong start after a horrid spring. She's got a brutal draw to get through before we can start talking seriously about her, but she's taken the first step.
There's not much to write home about in the bottom quarter, in this round. With Sanchez and Azarenka out, Dementieva's path to the quarters opened up nicely. Meanwhile, we could be in for a couple barnburners - Venus Williams vs. Dominika Cibulkova and Nadia Petrova vs. Aravane Rezai in the third round in the bottom section.
The top half is still, by far, the tougher half of the draw. Jelena Jankovic has to be the favorite to come out of her quarter, but she probably has one of the tougher second-round matches, against Kaia Kanepi - the same Kaia Kanepi who beat Justine Henin in Fed Cup a few weeks ago. Further down the road, she could have a revenge match against Alona Bondarenko, who topped her in Australia. Her Round of 16 shouldn't be too much trouble, and then just about anybody could come out of that bottom section for the quarters.
The biggest ring in the women's circus continues to be the top quarter. Serena Williams got a tough first set, but an easy second from Stefanie Voegele. It's still hard to see her not coming out of her section. Shahar Peer looked good and had a strong spring, but Marion Bartoli could be a tough Round of 16.
THE match of the third round could be Maria Sharapova vs. Justine Henin. Sharapova had a solid win over compatriot Ksenia Pervak and now gets Belgian Kirsten Flipkens. Watch that match if you get a chance. Flipkens is fun to watch if she's playing well - she'll show Sharapova something different and might actually be a nice warm-up for a possible Henin match.
In my pre-tournament prediction, I picked Henin to win. Mainly, that was because she has so much more margin for error in her game on this surface than the other women do. I don't think she has to be at her best to win - just reasonably close to it. Henin's first-round match was quintessential Justine Henin - not brilliant but good enough in the first set. She took a mental break after going up 2-0 in the second, but then finished strongly. She looked nervous early, but improved as the match went on. Now, she gets Klara Zakapalova, and then possibly Sharapova. Samantha Stosur will most likely be waiting for the winner of that match. And all that just to get to the quarters!
I'll be back as the week goes on with more.
Reflecting on the Men's First Round – Well, Most of It
A few thoughts on the first round of Roland Garros, now that almost all the men and women have played. I'll start with the men.
Granted it's the first round, but Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal are both looking good. I have a hard time seeing anyone in Federer's half of the draw taking him out at this point. He struggles the most with talented, unpredictable players, and the guys left in his quarter, although talented, are all known quantities to Federer. I hate to make the call so early, but barring injury or illness, he should be good to go.
His semifinal could still be interesting, though. I predicted Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to get through, but he's already got a lot of tennis under his belt. He might need some help, getting to the semis, now. Mikhail Youzhny had a nice easy win, and a few dangerous players – Baghdatis, Isner and Berdych got through their first rounds nicely. I was pleasantly surprised to see Andy Murray survive Richard Gasquet, but he's also spent more time on court than I'm sure he'd like, and he could have a lot more under his belt by the time he runs into those players. I'm still not confident in his chances.
Andy Roddick's played a lot for one match, but his draw is looking pretty nice ... until the fourth round, where David Ferrer might be lurking. Ferrer might be the new unofficial third favorite after Fernando Verdasco got bitten by the bad draw bug. It will be interesting to see how Roddick, who pulled out of Madrid, bounces back against Blaz Kavcic, his second-round opponent.
If he's fit, Novak Djokovic has got to like his draw. He gets a talented, but tired, Kei Nishikori in the second round and possibly Victor Hanescu in the third. After that, it could Juan Carlos Ferrero for a spot in the quarterfinals. If he gets a couple matches under his belt, Djokovic might turn into a contender. Stay tuned to find out.
In the final quarter, it's hard to like anyone other than Nadal. He's up next against an Argentine opponent who went 8-6 in the fifth in his first-round match. Like with Federer, Nadal's comfortable enough with the guys in his draw that it's hard to imagine him losing. Of course, last year wasn't any different, and look how that turned out.
For his quarterfinal opponent, I keep going back and forth between Verdasco and Almagro, but Verdasco jumped out to a huge advantage in my book, losing just eight games in his first-round match. Almagro, meanwhile, went to five and could have Fernando Gonzalez waiting for him if he makes the third round. If he makes it to the Round of 16, he might have to play a lot of tennis. Best-of-five makes it easier to weed out the pretenders on clay, and Almagro might have played himself off the favorites' list.
So, how have my predictions gone so far? Well, I've only lost one quarterfinalist and three of my final 16 players – not too bad. Ernests Gulbis retired with an injury, but I'm not convinced he would have pulled out that match anyway. Benneteau was looking pretty good, and he got that home-crowd lift I wrote about earlier. Monaco's loss, to a qualifier ranked 141, was a real shocker, and with Gasquet, you've got to expect the unexpected. He proved me right for two sets and a break and proved me wrong the rest of the way. Oh well – can't win them all.
I'll be back soon with some thoughts on the women's draw.
Granted it's the first round, but Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal are both looking good. I have a hard time seeing anyone in Federer's half of the draw taking him out at this point. He struggles the most with talented, unpredictable players, and the guys left in his quarter, although talented, are all known quantities to Federer. I hate to make the call so early, but barring injury or illness, he should be good to go.
His semifinal could still be interesting, though. I predicted Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to get through, but he's already got a lot of tennis under his belt. He might need some help, getting to the semis, now. Mikhail Youzhny had a nice easy win, and a few dangerous players – Baghdatis, Isner and Berdych got through their first rounds nicely. I was pleasantly surprised to see Andy Murray survive Richard Gasquet, but he's also spent more time on court than I'm sure he'd like, and he could have a lot more under his belt by the time he runs into those players. I'm still not confident in his chances.
Andy Roddick's played a lot for one match, but his draw is looking pretty nice ... until the fourth round, where David Ferrer might be lurking. Ferrer might be the new unofficial third favorite after Fernando Verdasco got bitten by the bad draw bug. It will be interesting to see how Roddick, who pulled out of Madrid, bounces back against Blaz Kavcic, his second-round opponent.
If he's fit, Novak Djokovic has got to like his draw. He gets a talented, but tired, Kei Nishikori in the second round and possibly Victor Hanescu in the third. After that, it could Juan Carlos Ferrero for a spot in the quarterfinals. If he gets a couple matches under his belt, Djokovic might turn into a contender. Stay tuned to find out.
In the final quarter, it's hard to like anyone other than Nadal. He's up next against an Argentine opponent who went 8-6 in the fifth in his first-round match. Like with Federer, Nadal's comfortable enough with the guys in his draw that it's hard to imagine him losing. Of course, last year wasn't any different, and look how that turned out.
For his quarterfinal opponent, I keep going back and forth between Verdasco and Almagro, but Verdasco jumped out to a huge advantage in my book, losing just eight games in his first-round match. Almagro, meanwhile, went to five and could have Fernando Gonzalez waiting for him if he makes the third round. If he makes it to the Round of 16, he might have to play a lot of tennis. Best-of-five makes it easier to weed out the pretenders on clay, and Almagro might have played himself off the favorites' list.
So, how have my predictions gone so far? Well, I've only lost one quarterfinalist and three of my final 16 players – not too bad. Ernests Gulbis retired with an injury, but I'm not convinced he would have pulled out that match anyway. Benneteau was looking pretty good, and he got that home-crowd lift I wrote about earlier. Monaco's loss, to a qualifier ranked 141, was a real shocker, and with Gasquet, you've got to expect the unexpected. He proved me right for two sets and a break and proved me wrong the rest of the way. Oh well – can't win them all.
I'll be back soon with some thoughts on the women's draw.
Friday, May 21, 2010
Roland Garros: A Look at the Women's Draw
Did you really doubt it was going to happen?
When the seedings were announced, fans everywhere had to be wondering who was going to lose the Justine Henin sweepstakes. When the people who determine the seeds chose not to promote the four-time champion above her ranking (23rd, but seeded 22nd with Kim Clijsters' withdrawal) you knew the draw was going to suffer for it, but who knew it would suffer this much?
For the entire women's draw, go here: http://www.rolandgarros.com/en_FR/scores/draws/ws/index.html
Top Half
Wow. That's all that really needs to be said. The women in this draw have won a combined 32 Grand Slam singles titles, and 22 of those titles are in the top quarter. Serena Williams leads the way and will be looking for her second Roland Garros title. If she gets it, she'll be looking at the possibility of winning the Grand Slam, the first time any singles player has done so since 1988. And there aren't too many obstacles in her way before the quarterfinals. Melinda Czink could be tricky in the second round, as could Shahar Peer or Marion Bartoli in the Round of 16, but I think Serena's early draw looks pretty good.
It's the section right below her that could be all kinds of fun. Maria Sharapova's going to come in having just played a tournament this week (Strasbourg) and she's in the third set of a semifinal match as I write this. Her first two rounds look pretty easy, but she was the aforementioned loser of the Justine Henin sweepstakes. If Henin's healthy (and gets through her potentially-tricky early rounds), we'll have a blockbuster third round to look forward to. Whoever gets through there will most likely play Samantha Stosur in the Round of 16 – and then Serena could be looming. If Serena vs. Henin does happen, we could see some fireworks. Serena's still got some lingering hard feelings from their 2003 semifinal, and it will be interesting to see if she can overcome that.
The second quarter isn't exactly a walk in the park either. Fourth-seeded Jelena Jankovic stands out as the favorite here, but there are some unseeded dangers lurking, including Carla Suarez-Navarro and 2008 champion Ana Ivanovic. I think both could make runs here. The 2008 and 2009 runner-up, Dinara Safina, is also in this section, but her warm-up results haven't been anything to write home about. The good news is that the tennis gods gave her a good draw. It remains to be seen if she can take advantage of that.
Bottom Half
After so much action in the top half of the draw, this almost feels like a let down. Defending champion Svetlana Kuznetsova and third-seeded Caroline Wozniacki are the headliners here, but Kuznetsova's looked dreadful this year, and when exactly has Wozniacki had time to recover from that ankle injury she had at the start of the clay season? It's hard to like Kuznetsova's chances, given her draw. She ended up with Sorana Cirstea (defending quarterfinalist and top unseeded player) in the first round, and, should she survive that, there are all kinds of tough players to come. Unless she finds the magic that won her last year's title, her stay in Paris could be very short this year.
Wozniacki's luck wasn't much better. She could have Tathiana Garbin in the second round, an opponent who knows how to beat off-form top players. After that, Alexandra Dulgheru should be favored to make the third round, and Flavia Pennetta or Lucie Safarova could come in the Round of 16. Wozniacki better hope that ankle's in good shape if she's going to stand a prayer at doing well.
Most of the top contenders landed in the top quarter, but for my money, most of the secondary ones ended up in the bottom quarter. Elena Dementieva, the 2004 runner-up, could end up with Anabel Medina Garrigues in the second round and Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez or Victoria Azarenka in the Round of 16. No doubt there's dangers there, but if she's feeling good, she can get through that.
Venus probably ended up with the hardest draw after Henin's. She ended up with Patty Schnyder, who has slipped, but is still dangerous, in the first round. It's unlikely, but an upset there wouldn't stun me. Last year's semifinalist, Dominika Cibulkova, could be lurking in the third round and then possibly Aravane Rezai or former semifinalist Nadia Petrova in the fourth round. If she's going to get through, Venus is going to have to hit the ground running. Otherwise, she might have plenty of time to get ready for Wimbledon.
What's Going to Happen?
Who knows? With the way this season has gone, you've got to be gutsier than usual to make a prediction. My money says the winner comes out of the top half. Beyond that, Jelena Jankovic might be best set up for a win – nice draw, not too easy, not too hard. That's assuming she doesn't meet a rested, confident Justine Henin in the semis, though. Henin's draw might be a little too tough for her to go all the way, or she (or whoever comes out of that quarter) might find the semis and finals easy after the early rounds. For some reason, no matter what happens in the warm-ups, Henin seems to become a different player once she reaches to Paris. We'll find out pretty quickly if that's changed. Anyway, here's a few guesses, starting with the Round of 16:
Williams vs. Peer
Henin vs. Stosur
Jankovic vs. Suarez-Navarro
Zvonareva vs. Ivanovic
Cirstea vs. Schiavone
Safarova vs. Wozniacki
Dementieva vs. Martinez Sanchez
Petrova vs. Williams
Quarterfinals
Williams vs. Henin
Jankovic vs. Ivanovic
Schiavone vs. Wozniacki
Dementieva vs. Petrova
Semifinals
Henin vs. Jankovic
Wozniacki vs. Dementieva
Finals
Henin vs. Dementieva
Champion
Henin
When the seedings were announced, fans everywhere had to be wondering who was going to lose the Justine Henin sweepstakes. When the people who determine the seeds chose not to promote the four-time champion above her ranking (23rd, but seeded 22nd with Kim Clijsters' withdrawal) you knew the draw was going to suffer for it, but who knew it would suffer this much?
For the entire women's draw, go here: http://www.rolandgarros.com/en_FR/scores/draws/ws/index.html
Top Half
Wow. That's all that really needs to be said. The women in this draw have won a combined 32 Grand Slam singles titles, and 22 of those titles are in the top quarter. Serena Williams leads the way and will be looking for her second Roland Garros title. If she gets it, she'll be looking at the possibility of winning the Grand Slam, the first time any singles player has done so since 1988. And there aren't too many obstacles in her way before the quarterfinals. Melinda Czink could be tricky in the second round, as could Shahar Peer or Marion Bartoli in the Round of 16, but I think Serena's early draw looks pretty good.
It's the section right below her that could be all kinds of fun. Maria Sharapova's going to come in having just played a tournament this week (Strasbourg) and she's in the third set of a semifinal match as I write this. Her first two rounds look pretty easy, but she was the aforementioned loser of the Justine Henin sweepstakes. If Henin's healthy (and gets through her potentially-tricky early rounds), we'll have a blockbuster third round to look forward to. Whoever gets through there will most likely play Samantha Stosur in the Round of 16 – and then Serena could be looming. If Serena vs. Henin does happen, we could see some fireworks. Serena's still got some lingering hard feelings from their 2003 semifinal, and it will be interesting to see if she can overcome that.
The second quarter isn't exactly a walk in the park either. Fourth-seeded Jelena Jankovic stands out as the favorite here, but there are some unseeded dangers lurking, including Carla Suarez-Navarro and 2008 champion Ana Ivanovic. I think both could make runs here. The 2008 and 2009 runner-up, Dinara Safina, is also in this section, but her warm-up results haven't been anything to write home about. The good news is that the tennis gods gave her a good draw. It remains to be seen if she can take advantage of that.
Bottom Half
After so much action in the top half of the draw, this almost feels like a let down. Defending champion Svetlana Kuznetsova and third-seeded Caroline Wozniacki are the headliners here, but Kuznetsova's looked dreadful this year, and when exactly has Wozniacki had time to recover from that ankle injury she had at the start of the clay season? It's hard to like Kuznetsova's chances, given her draw. She ended up with Sorana Cirstea (defending quarterfinalist and top unseeded player) in the first round, and, should she survive that, there are all kinds of tough players to come. Unless she finds the magic that won her last year's title, her stay in Paris could be very short this year.
Wozniacki's luck wasn't much better. She could have Tathiana Garbin in the second round, an opponent who knows how to beat off-form top players. After that, Alexandra Dulgheru should be favored to make the third round, and Flavia Pennetta or Lucie Safarova could come in the Round of 16. Wozniacki better hope that ankle's in good shape if she's going to stand a prayer at doing well.
Most of the top contenders landed in the top quarter, but for my money, most of the secondary ones ended up in the bottom quarter. Elena Dementieva, the 2004 runner-up, could end up with Anabel Medina Garrigues in the second round and Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez or Victoria Azarenka in the Round of 16. No doubt there's dangers there, but if she's feeling good, she can get through that.
Venus probably ended up with the hardest draw after Henin's. She ended up with Patty Schnyder, who has slipped, but is still dangerous, in the first round. It's unlikely, but an upset there wouldn't stun me. Last year's semifinalist, Dominika Cibulkova, could be lurking in the third round and then possibly Aravane Rezai or former semifinalist Nadia Petrova in the fourth round. If she's going to get through, Venus is going to have to hit the ground running. Otherwise, she might have plenty of time to get ready for Wimbledon.
What's Going to Happen?
Who knows? With the way this season has gone, you've got to be gutsier than usual to make a prediction. My money says the winner comes out of the top half. Beyond that, Jelena Jankovic might be best set up for a win – nice draw, not too easy, not too hard. That's assuming she doesn't meet a rested, confident Justine Henin in the semis, though. Henin's draw might be a little too tough for her to go all the way, or she (or whoever comes out of that quarter) might find the semis and finals easy after the early rounds. For some reason, no matter what happens in the warm-ups, Henin seems to become a different player once she reaches to Paris. We'll find out pretty quickly if that's changed. Anyway, here's a few guesses, starting with the Round of 16:
Williams vs. Peer
Henin vs. Stosur
Jankovic vs. Suarez-Navarro
Zvonareva vs. Ivanovic
Cirstea vs. Schiavone
Safarova vs. Wozniacki
Dementieva vs. Martinez Sanchez
Petrova vs. Williams
Quarterfinals
Williams vs. Henin
Jankovic vs. Ivanovic
Schiavone vs. Wozniacki
Dementieva vs. Petrova
Semifinals
Henin vs. Jankovic
Wozniacki vs. Dementieva
Finals
Henin vs. Dementieva
Champion
Henin
Roland Garros: A Look at the Men's Draw
I blogged before that until he loses, Rafael Nadal has to be considered the man to beat at Roland Garros this year, and I haven't seen anything in the draw to make me change my mind. For a look at the entire draw, go to: http://www.rolandgarros.com/en_FR/scores/draws/ms/index.html
Top Half
In the top quarter, I only see one real threat to Roger Federer, and that's Ernests Gulbis – should Gulbis get to the quarterfinals. And after the clay-court season he's had, he should be expected to get there. Gulbis drew Marin Cilic, a very good player who's been off on the clay, in the third round; and Albert Montanes, a solid, but not great Spaniard, or Robin Soderling, the defending runner-up, in the Round of 16. Based on his results this spring, a shot at Federer is definitely possible, and based on their two matches on clay this season, that has the potential to be a blockbuster match. Federer has the most recent win, and I'm going with him on this one, but Gulbis did get the win in Rome, and he didn't exactly roll over and die in Madrid. That's one of the matches this year I hope will happen.
In the second quarter, I've got some upsets happening, and my first instinct is that Jo-Wilfried Tsonga's going to come through there. Andy Murray's got a really tough match right at the start, against Richard Gasquet, who's been winning matches at some smaller events. With the confidence he's gained, the talent he has and a little help from the home crowd, he could pull off a big upset. Even if he doesn't, it looks like about anybody could make the quarters from this section. Besides Murray and Gasquet, John Isner and Tomas Berdych are dangerous, but both have injury questions. If healthy, Isner's surprised me on clay. With his serve, could he have a run in him? Marcos Baghdatis hasn't been great on clay, but who knows?
Bottom Half
I guess the biggest question about the third quarter of the draw is this: Is Novak Djokovic fit and in form to make a run? If he is, he's got the game, confidence and experience to make the semis. If not, well, he's got a tough draw ahead of him. His potential third-round opponent, Victor Hanescu, reached the Round of 16 last year, and 2003 champion Juan Carlos Ferrero is also looming in this section. Should he get through that, David Ferrer could be waiting in the quarters. Ferrer got drawn against Andy Roddick in the Round of 16, but I'm not sure Roddick makes it that far. Juan Monaco could be a tough customer in the third round.
A lot of good clay-court players ended up in the bottom quarter, starting with second-seeded Rafael Nadal. He could play Thomaz Bellucci or Ivan Ljubicic in the fourth round, with any one of Fernando Verdasco, Nicolas Almagro or Fernando Gonzalez lurking in the quarters. Earlier this week, I had Verdasco as my unofficial third favorite. Well, for a third favorite, the draw gods certainly were not kind to him. It's hard to see him, or any of these players beating a healthy, confident Nadal.
What's going to happen?
Well, the first thing we've got to remember is that upsets will happen. When and where is the question. Here's are my guesses, starting with the Round of 16:
Federer vs. Monfils
Gulbis vs. Montanes
Gasquet vs. Berdych
Youzhny vs. Tsonga
Monaco vs. Ferrer
Ferrero vs. Djokovic
Verdasco vs. Almagro
Bellucci vs. Nadal
Quarterfinals
Federer vs. Gulbis
Berdych vs. Tsonga
Ferrer vs. Djokovic
Almagro vs. Nadal
Semifinals
Federer vs. Tsonga
Ferrer vs. Nadal
Finals
Federer vs. Nadal
Champion: Nadal
Top Half
In the top quarter, I only see one real threat to Roger Federer, and that's Ernests Gulbis – should Gulbis get to the quarterfinals. And after the clay-court season he's had, he should be expected to get there. Gulbis drew Marin Cilic, a very good player who's been off on the clay, in the third round; and Albert Montanes, a solid, but not great Spaniard, or Robin Soderling, the defending runner-up, in the Round of 16. Based on his results this spring, a shot at Federer is definitely possible, and based on their two matches on clay this season, that has the potential to be a blockbuster match. Federer has the most recent win, and I'm going with him on this one, but Gulbis did get the win in Rome, and he didn't exactly roll over and die in Madrid. That's one of the matches this year I hope will happen.
In the second quarter, I've got some upsets happening, and my first instinct is that Jo-Wilfried Tsonga's going to come through there. Andy Murray's got a really tough match right at the start, against Richard Gasquet, who's been winning matches at some smaller events. With the confidence he's gained, the talent he has and a little help from the home crowd, he could pull off a big upset. Even if he doesn't, it looks like about anybody could make the quarters from this section. Besides Murray and Gasquet, John Isner and Tomas Berdych are dangerous, but both have injury questions. If healthy, Isner's surprised me on clay. With his serve, could he have a run in him? Marcos Baghdatis hasn't been great on clay, but who knows?
Bottom Half
I guess the biggest question about the third quarter of the draw is this: Is Novak Djokovic fit and in form to make a run? If he is, he's got the game, confidence and experience to make the semis. If not, well, he's got a tough draw ahead of him. His potential third-round opponent, Victor Hanescu, reached the Round of 16 last year, and 2003 champion Juan Carlos Ferrero is also looming in this section. Should he get through that, David Ferrer could be waiting in the quarters. Ferrer got drawn against Andy Roddick in the Round of 16, but I'm not sure Roddick makes it that far. Juan Monaco could be a tough customer in the third round.
A lot of good clay-court players ended up in the bottom quarter, starting with second-seeded Rafael Nadal. He could play Thomaz Bellucci or Ivan Ljubicic in the fourth round, with any one of Fernando Verdasco, Nicolas Almagro or Fernando Gonzalez lurking in the quarters. Earlier this week, I had Verdasco as my unofficial third favorite. Well, for a third favorite, the draw gods certainly were not kind to him. It's hard to see him, or any of these players beating a healthy, confident Nadal.
What's going to happen?
Well, the first thing we've got to remember is that upsets will happen. When and where is the question. Here's are my guesses, starting with the Round of 16:
Federer vs. Monfils
Gulbis vs. Montanes
Gasquet vs. Berdych
Youzhny vs. Tsonga
Monaco vs. Ferrer
Ferrero vs. Djokovic
Verdasco vs. Almagro
Bellucci vs. Nadal
Quarterfinals
Federer vs. Gulbis
Berdych vs. Tsonga
Ferrer vs. Djokovic
Almagro vs. Nadal
Semifinals
Federer vs. Tsonga
Ferrer vs. Nadal
Finals
Federer vs. Nadal
Champion: Nadal
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
Roland Garros Seed Analysis – The Women
No Favorites This Year
The women’s field is much different from the men’s. With the men, we have a pretty well-defined heirarchy – Nadal, Federer, etc. – but the women haven’t developed anything close to that; most of the top players have been injured or out of form on the clay this year. The big titles on so far have gone to Justine Henin (Stuttgart), Maria Jose Martinez (Rome) and Aravane Rezai (Madrid), none of whom was even in the top 20 when they won their titles, and they might be as good a place to start as any. Rezai now enters Paris with home-Slam pressure, and if she has any doubt about what that is like, all she has to do is talk to Amelie Mauresmo. She does have a Round of 16 result from last year, though, so maybe she can make a run.
Martinez is entering Roland Garros as a legitimate dark horse, too. She reached the third round last year and put up a fight against Serena Williams. With that big clay tournament win in Rome, she certainly can’t be dismissed.
For both of these two, their tournament wins have come the hard way. Martinez beat Caroline Wozniacki, Ana Ivanovic and Jelena Jankovic in Rome, and Rezai beat Henin, Jankovic and Venus Williams at Madrid. It remains to be seen if they can duplicate those results in a major, but both know they can beat the top players. I doubt they’ll be around on the final weekend, but could they be alive beyond the first weekend? Possibly.
As surprising as it sounds, Henin might be the biggest unknown of these three. Stuttgart was her first title after coming out of retirement at the start of the year, and that win was sandwiched between a couple uncharacteristic losses. She’s had health questions, with injury and illness affecting her results, but if she’s fit, Henin has, by far, the best clay resume of any woman in the draw, with four wins and a semifinal between 2001 and 2007 and she hasn’t lost a set since the fourth round – in 2005. If she’s not fit, well, she’s also had first-round (2002) and second-round (2004) losses in that same span.
The Top Players
Serena and Venus Williams will enter Roland Garros seeded first and second for the first time since the 2003 Australian Open. Venus comes in with some confidence, having reached the finals of Madrid, so she’s got to be considered a contender. Tough losses to Jankovic and Rezai have to raise questions, though. Serena comes into Paris without a title, but after hurting her knee in Australia, she shouldn’t have been looking to win Rome and Madrid – she should have been looking to win matches, which she did. Perhaps most importantly, she’ll come into Roland Garros motivated – if she can lift the trophy here, she’ll have a good chance of winning the Grand Slam this season. No doubt, she’s a threat.
Wozniacki, now the third seed, is defending Round of 16 points, but she's been in dismal form since hurting her ankle at Charleston. She’s got to step up if she wants to live up to her seeding this year.
One player who has stepped up on the clay is Jelena Jankovic. After winning Indian Wells earlier this year, she came onto the clay, and she’s been to the latter rounds of each of the big events, but she doesn’t have a title to show for it. Now the fourth-ranked player, she’s got to be expecting to be around late in the second week.
The players who probably have the most to lose are the defending finalists, Svetlana Kuznetsova and Dinara Safina. Since winning the title last year, Kuznetsova’s results have been awful, and she’s now got just less than half her points wrapped up in Paris. In her defense, Safina’s been injured, but talk is that her practice time is limited, and she hasn’t been doing much winning since her return. An early loss in Paris could put them both on the wrong side of the Top 16 – that’s a long way for players with their talent to fall.
Samantha Stosur was hot to start the clay season, winning the Charleston tournament and finishing runner-up to Henin in Stuttgart. She then lost 6-3, 6-3 to Venus in Madrid. As a defending semifinalist, she has a track record that suggests she could go far, but if she’s going to win, she’ll have to beat players like Henin and Venus. No doubt she’s a darkhorse, but a winner? Maybe not.
Anyone Else?
Elena Dementieva, the fifth-ranked player, is a quiet threat. She’s had good results in Paris but has been quiet this year. Agnieszka Radwanska (Round of 16) and Vika Azarenka (quarterfinals) could do well, or they could flame out early if they run into a tough draw. Azarenka especially, has disappointed, disappearing after giving Serena a huge scare in Australia.
Shahar Peer and Lucie Safarova have done well on the clay and could out-perform their seeds. Nadia Petrova, as a two-time semifinalist, will always be a tough out in Paris – and she’s coming in with a win over Serena. Keep an eye on her early.
Maria Sharapova is defending quarterfinalist points in Paris, but she’s also been injured. She might need help from the draw if she’s going to do well this year. The Italians, Flavia Pennetta and Francesca Schiavone were both first-round losers last year, but both are comfortable on clay. They should do better this year, although neither is likely to be around for the final weekend.
Na Li reached the Round of 16 last year but after reaching the semifinals in Australia, she’s also been quiet. Dominika Cibulkova is defending semifinalist points but she’s barely been heard from since last year. An early loss will send her plummeting.
The top French player is Marion Bartoli, but as of right now, her results haven’t suggested she’s capable of living up to her seeding. Vera Zvonareva has been to the quarterfinals in Paris before and isn’t defending anything this year, although her results haven’t been up to par, either.
It’s a packed crowd in the women’s field, no doubt about it. Perhaps more so than with the men, the draw is going to tell a lot about who can and can’t win this year. At this point, I wouldn't even want to begin to guess at what's going to happen.
Come back later this week, for more on Roland Garros.
The women’s field is much different from the men’s. With the men, we have a pretty well-defined heirarchy – Nadal, Federer, etc. – but the women haven’t developed anything close to that; most of the top players have been injured or out of form on the clay this year. The big titles on so far have gone to Justine Henin (Stuttgart), Maria Jose Martinez (Rome) and Aravane Rezai (Madrid), none of whom was even in the top 20 when they won their titles, and they might be as good a place to start as any. Rezai now enters Paris with home-Slam pressure, and if she has any doubt about what that is like, all she has to do is talk to Amelie Mauresmo. She does have a Round of 16 result from last year, though, so maybe she can make a run.
Martinez is entering Roland Garros as a legitimate dark horse, too. She reached the third round last year and put up a fight against Serena Williams. With that big clay tournament win in Rome, she certainly can’t be dismissed.
For both of these two, their tournament wins have come the hard way. Martinez beat Caroline Wozniacki, Ana Ivanovic and Jelena Jankovic in Rome, and Rezai beat Henin, Jankovic and Venus Williams at Madrid. It remains to be seen if they can duplicate those results in a major, but both know they can beat the top players. I doubt they’ll be around on the final weekend, but could they be alive beyond the first weekend? Possibly.
As surprising as it sounds, Henin might be the biggest unknown of these three. Stuttgart was her first title after coming out of retirement at the start of the year, and that win was sandwiched between a couple uncharacteristic losses. She’s had health questions, with injury and illness affecting her results, but if she’s fit, Henin has, by far, the best clay resume of any woman in the draw, with four wins and a semifinal between 2001 and 2007 and she hasn’t lost a set since the fourth round – in 2005. If she’s not fit, well, she’s also had first-round (2002) and second-round (2004) losses in that same span.
The Top Players
Serena and Venus Williams will enter Roland Garros seeded first and second for the first time since the 2003 Australian Open. Venus comes in with some confidence, having reached the finals of Madrid, so she’s got to be considered a contender. Tough losses to Jankovic and Rezai have to raise questions, though. Serena comes into Paris without a title, but after hurting her knee in Australia, she shouldn’t have been looking to win Rome and Madrid – she should have been looking to win matches, which she did. Perhaps most importantly, she’ll come into Roland Garros motivated – if she can lift the trophy here, she’ll have a good chance of winning the Grand Slam this season. No doubt, she’s a threat.
Wozniacki, now the third seed, is defending Round of 16 points, but she's been in dismal form since hurting her ankle at Charleston. She’s got to step up if she wants to live up to her seeding this year.
One player who has stepped up on the clay is Jelena Jankovic. After winning Indian Wells earlier this year, she came onto the clay, and she’s been to the latter rounds of each of the big events, but she doesn’t have a title to show for it. Now the fourth-ranked player, she’s got to be expecting to be around late in the second week.
The players who probably have the most to lose are the defending finalists, Svetlana Kuznetsova and Dinara Safina. Since winning the title last year, Kuznetsova’s results have been awful, and she’s now got just less than half her points wrapped up in Paris. In her defense, Safina’s been injured, but talk is that her practice time is limited, and she hasn’t been doing much winning since her return. An early loss in Paris could put them both on the wrong side of the Top 16 – that’s a long way for players with their talent to fall.
Samantha Stosur was hot to start the clay season, winning the Charleston tournament and finishing runner-up to Henin in Stuttgart. She then lost 6-3, 6-3 to Venus in Madrid. As a defending semifinalist, she has a track record that suggests she could go far, but if she’s going to win, she’ll have to beat players like Henin and Venus. No doubt she’s a darkhorse, but a winner? Maybe not.
Anyone Else?
Elena Dementieva, the fifth-ranked player, is a quiet threat. She’s had good results in Paris but has been quiet this year. Agnieszka Radwanska (Round of 16) and Vika Azarenka (quarterfinals) could do well, or they could flame out early if they run into a tough draw. Azarenka especially, has disappointed, disappearing after giving Serena a huge scare in Australia.
Shahar Peer and Lucie Safarova have done well on the clay and could out-perform their seeds. Nadia Petrova, as a two-time semifinalist, will always be a tough out in Paris – and she’s coming in with a win over Serena. Keep an eye on her early.
Maria Sharapova is defending quarterfinalist points in Paris, but she’s also been injured. She might need help from the draw if she’s going to do well this year. The Italians, Flavia Pennetta and Francesca Schiavone were both first-round losers last year, but both are comfortable on clay. They should do better this year, although neither is likely to be around for the final weekend.
Na Li reached the Round of 16 last year but after reaching the semifinals in Australia, she’s also been quiet. Dominika Cibulkova is defending semifinalist points but she’s barely been heard from since last year. An early loss will send her plummeting.
The top French player is Marion Bartoli, but as of right now, her results haven’t suggested she’s capable of living up to her seeding. Vera Zvonareva has been to the quarterfinals in Paris before and isn’t defending anything this year, although her results haven’t been up to par, either.
It’s a packed crowd in the women’s field, no doubt about it. Perhaps more so than with the men, the draw is going to tell a lot about who can and can’t win this year. At this point, I wouldn't even want to begin to guess at what's going to happen.
Come back later this week, for more on Roland Garros.
Monday, May 17, 2010
Roland Garros Seed Analysis – The Men
Danger to the Top?
How quickly things can change. Just a couple months ago, some tennis fans were lamenting the possibility of Roger Federer’s streak of Grand Slam semifinals possibly being stopped here, should he draw then-fifth ranked Rafael Nadal for the quarterfinals. Now, with Nadal safely planted at the bottom of the draw, Federer’s run is almost sure to remain intact.
Or is it?
For some reason, this season feels different than past years, where Federer has shown signs of “vulnerability.” In 2009, Federer had losses to Stanislas Wawrinka, Julien Benneteau and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. All are capable players, no doubt, but at the same time, they aren't guys you would expect to get beat the world’s top-ranked player over five sets.
Coming into Roland Garros this year, Federer has lost matches to Marcos Baghdatis, Tomas Berdych and Ernests Gulbis, all players whose talent, shot-making and explosiveness have been talked about for years. All three are also players who one could imagine, over the course of five sets, having enough weapons to come out on top against the world’s No. 1 player. I could certainly imagine it happening. Now make no mistake, that doesn’t mean I think it will happen, just that it’s possible – especially if Federer has an off-day. And if an upset does happen, Federer’s No. 1 ranking might be in some danger. Again, his losing early isn’t likely, but it can’t be completely ruled out.
The good news for Federer is that, as a top-eight player, he avoids Berdych and Gulbis until at least the Round of 16. Baghdatis is seeded lower, so he could get drawn against Federer in the third round. Baghdatis and Berdych (who's been injured) have not been noisemakers on the clay this year and may be lesser threats than Gulbis, who beat Federer in Rome and lost a tough three-setter to him in Madrid. Gulbis also gave Nadal a very tough match in the Rome semis. If expectations don’t get to him, he’ll be a threat in Paris.
The Reign of Spain
Right now, Nadal has to be considered the man to beat. He comes into Paris undefeated and healthy, and he should have plenty of confidence after beating Federer in the Madrid final. With just a Round of 16 performance to defend from last year, Nadal – if he lifts the championship trophy on the second Sunday in Paris – could set himself up for another run at No. 1 this summer. No doubt, he has much more to gain out of this tournament than a fifth Roland Garros title.
Behind Nadal and Federer, many of the top contenders in Paris have the letters ESP behind their names. Fernando Verdasco will be coming in as the seventh seed, and as the unofficial third favorite after winning Barcelona and reaching the finals of Monte Carlo, but he reportedly has an ankle injury. David Ferrer is 10th, was runner up in Rome and reached the semis in Monte Carlo and Madrid, losing to Nadal and Federer, respectively. Juan Carlos Ferrero reached the quarterfinals in Monte Carlo and won a couple clay events earlier this year – plus he knows how to win at Roland Garros. He is coming into Paris with a knee injury, though. Tommy Robredo has also been quiet but is defending quarterfinalist points from last year. Nicolas Almagro looked confident in Madrid, taking Nadal to three in the semis, and Feliciano Lopez also had a good run, his coming in Rome. And all that’s before mentioning Albert Montanes, the winner in Estoril. If the draw gods are kind, the guys from Spain could be primed for great success this year.
The Rest of the Pack
So what about the rest of the top guys? Well, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray have looked a little vulnerable on clay – vulnerable enough that I wouldn’t put either on the top-five list of contenders coming in. Djokovic had a good result in Monte Carlo, reaching the semifinals, but there, he lost to Verdasco 6-2, 6-2, and he lost to Verdasco again in Rome. Both are going to have to step up big time if they want to be in the discussion when the end of the second week rolls around.
Robin Soderling has had a nice, but not great spring. As the fifth seed and defending runner-up, he’s got a lot to defend, but the draw this year is littered with dangers, and Soderling, although solid, hasn’t looked like a guy ready to defend last year’s result.
The French guys haven't made much noise this spring, either. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Gael Monfils and Gilles Simon (currently injured) will undoubtedly get a lift from the home crowd, Will that be enough to get them past a Federer or Nadal? Most likely not. A Djokovic or Murray? Possibly – if they’re playing well.
Andy Roddick surprised many fans with his run to the Round of 16 last year. This year, he’s coming into Paris with no match play on red clay, so we don’t know his form one way or the other. U.S. fans might have to rely on his compatriots – John Isner and Sam Querrey the finalists at the Serbia Open, if they want wins in Paris this year. We haven’t seen much of these two against the top guys, but at the very least, they should expect to live up to their seeds.
Marin Cilic made a lot of noise on the hard courts but has been less impressive this spring. He’ll have to step up if he’s going to last beyond the first week. Fernando Gonzalez is a defending semifinalist but has been injured. No one knows what form he’ll bring to Paris, but it’s hard to imagine him duplicating last year’s result. The 25th seed, Thomaz Bellucci, is someone fans were talking about earlier this year, but he hasn't has the kind of results that would make one think of him as a top contender - he made the Barcelona quarters and won a clay event in February, but he's had some tough losses this spring as well.
Ultimately, the draw’s going to determine a lot, but based just on this spring's results, the list of favorites should be Nadal, then Federer, then Verdasco, Gulbis and Ferrer. If Djokovic can find some form, put him in the discussion, too; despite his results this year – he has been good on clay in the past.
Tomorrow, I’ll take a look at the women’s seeds.
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
Hi, Everyone!
If you've just happened across this blog, welcome! I'm a long-time tennis fan, but fairly new to the blogosphere. Occasionally, I'll be sharing thoughts on what is going on in the professional tennis world and about various tournaments and players. Hope you'll continue to visit in the future.
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