Friday, June 18, 2010

Wimbledon Draw: The Gentlemen

What a draw! Roger Federer comes in as the top seed but is ranked second, and Rafael Nadal is the second seed, but is ranked first. Like I posted before, in practice, it means nothing, besides bragging rights. That being said, this is going to be a very fascinating tournament. For the entire gentlemen's draw, go here: http://www.wimbledon.org/en_GB/scores/draws/ms/index.html

First Quarter
I'm going to be straightforward - I can't imagine Roger Federer not reaching the quarterfinals. He lucked out with the draw by not getting Robin Soderling or Andy Roddick. In fact, he probably drew the weakest of the 5-8 players - Nikolay Davydenko. I've got Federer playing (and beating) Tomas Berdych in the quarters. Feliciano Lopez is an up-and-down player, but he's probably got the best shot at reaching the Round of 16 out of his section. Davydenko doesn't have a very strong history at Wimbledon, and he's just coming back from injury, besides. He opens against South African Kevin Anderson, and it's not too hard to imagine his Wimbledon ending there. There's a lot of dangerous players, but I think Victor Hanescu, the 31st seed, reaches the fourth round out of Davydenko's section.

Second Quarter
Novak Djokovic is the highest seed, but the draw gods were not kind to him. He starts with Olivier Rochus, who upset him this year at Miami and then could get serve-and-volleyer Taylor Dent, a qualifier, in the second round. His third round should be fairly comfortable, but then he will likely get either Gael Monfils or Lleyton Hewitt in the Round of 16 - not fun.
The bottom part of that quarter features Marin Cilic and Andy Roddick. I like Roddick's draw, but Cilic, like Djokovic, got a brutal draw, starting with former quarterfinalist Florian Mayer in the first round. Either Bernard Tomic or Mardy Fish could come in the second round, and then Ivan Ljubicic in the third. I've got Cilic playing Roddick, but I'm not confident about my pick.

Third Quarter
Quick everybody - when was the last time a British man won Wimbledon? If you answered Fred Perry in 1936, you've seen more than your share of Wimbledon men's coverage over the years. This year, Andy Murray picks up the baton again and tries to end the longest home-country drought in Grand Slam tennis. And really, with this draw, he should at least put himself in position to do so. Murray should reach the Round of 16 without too much trouble, but there, he'll have a tough match, probably against American Sam Querrey. Juan Carlos Ferrero is the 14th seed in Murray's section, but he's got a tough draw and could lose in the first round, to former semifinalist Xavier Malisse.
In the top part of the quarter, Fernando Verdasco is the top seed, but I think the Spaniard overextended himself on the clay, and he might have a tough time here. Julien Benneteau will be a dangerous third-round opponent, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will probably be favored, should Verdasco reach the fourth round. I think Murray comes through the section.

Fourth Quarter
But who will the British favorite play for his chance at the final? Well, for his welcome back to Wimbledon (after a two-year absence), Rafael Nadal probably got the toughest draw of anybody. Kei Nishikori, a wildcard, is his first-round opponent, and then he could get nemesis James Blake in the second round ... for the right to play Ernests Gulbis in the third. After his upset loss in Paris, the pressure should be off Gulbis, which might make him very dangerous. If Nadal is still in after all that, he'll probably play either Mikhail Youzhny, John Isner or Thiemo de Bakker, and that's just to get to the quarters!
Nadal had the bad luck of being drawn against Robin Soderling. These two played a tough grudge match, won by Nadal, in 2006, but that was a lifetime ago in tennis years. Soderling is a much different player, now. I've got him into the quarterfinals, and I don't think he'll have much trouble getting there. If he plays Nadal, I'm looking for the upset.

Fearful Predictions
Again, given the draw some of these guys have, I'm terrified about making these predictions, but I think the men's draw might be a little crazy this year. Here are my fearful picks, starting with the Round of 16:
(1) Roger Federer vs. (22) Feliciano Lopez
(12) Tomas Berdych vs. (31) Victor Hanescu
(3) Novak Djokovic vs. (15) Lleyton Hewitt
(11) Marin Cilic vs. (5) Andy Roddick
(32) Julien Benneteau vs. (10) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
(18) Sam Querrey vs. (4) Andy Murray
(6) Robin Soderling vs. (24) Marcos Baghdatis
(23) John Isner vs. (2) Rafael Nadal

Quarterfinals
Roger Federer vs. Tomas Berdych
Lleyton Hewitt vs. Andy Roddick
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. Andy Murray
Robin Soderling vs. Rafael Nadal

Semifinals
Roger Federer vs. Andy Roddick
Andy Murray vs. Robin Soderling

Finals
Andy Roddick vs. Robin Soderling

Champion: Andy Roddick

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