An Upside-Down Tournament

Sorry for the long break – my day job took me away from the blog.
Whew, what a week! Things usually heat up in the second week of a Grand Slam, but who knew they would reach this level? And we’re barely into the semifinals!
Here’s a few thoughts on what we’ve seen this week:
• Where did Samantha Stosur come from? Coming into Roland Garros, my impression was that she was turning into a solid player who would beat the players she was supposed to beat but stumble against the elite, or “better” players. And then she went out and beat Justine Henin and Serena Williams back-to-back – in matches that went 6-4 and 8-6 in the third. Stosur didn’t just beat Henin and Serena; she out-toughed them. If she doesn’t have a mental letdown, she has to be considered a legitimate contender.
• I’m shamelessly taking this line from the TV coverage I’ve watched, but apparently, no one beats Robin Soderling 13 times in a row – not even if you’re Roger Federer. Soderling was a finalist last year, but this result might be even more stunning that Stosur’s. Everyone knew Federer’s streak of 23 consecutive Grand Slam semifinals was going to end, but in four sets against a player he appeared so comfortable against? Wow.
• Elena Dementieva and Jelena Jankovic are currently two of the best women’s players who have never won a Grand Slam singles title. Now, they’ve reached the semifinals and do not have to worry about Serena Williams, Venus Williams, Justine Henin, Maria Sharapova or Kim Clijsters. We know Dementieva will come away from this situation without a win, and I can imagine the same thing happening to Jankovic.
• If you’d told me two weeks ago that the Roland Garros semifinals would have featured four women who’d never won a Slam, three men who’d never won a Slam and Rafael Nadal, I’d have thought you were crazy – and I had five Slamless players in my semifinals before play started!
• Don’t look now, but if Rafael Nadal wins Roland Garros, he’ll be No. 1 in the world – over a Roger Federer who has won Wimbledon and the Australian Open and been runner-up at the U.S. Open. It just goes to show that those week-in, week-out tournaments do matter sometimes. That being said, Nadal’s win here can’t be considered a done deal, not with Soderling/Berdych possibly waiting for him in the finals.
• How surprising is Henin’s result in Paris? It probably depends on whether or not you believed her when she said 2010 would be a year of transition. Her season has been made all the more complicated by injury, illness and personal distractions. Read here for more: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/more-sports/nothings-ever-simple-with-henin/article1580685/ Now, expectations on her should drop considerably.
• Over the course of this event, I’ve made three fearless predictions and three fearful ones. Let’s just say they’re fearful for a reason – only one of them came true. Of course, only one of my fearless predictions came true as well – both involved Federer.
• So, how about that Jurgen Melzer? This guy has got to be one of my favorite underdogs in a long time. He knocks off an in-form David Ferrer (maybe the biggest upset this side of Soderling/Federer), gets a qualifier to get to the quarterfinals and then comes back from two sets down to beat Novak Djokovic. On the other hand, if you’re Djokovic, how do you not close out the No. 22 seed when you’re two sets up – and in a fourth-set tie-breaker?
• I’ve said before, I think the women’s winner will come out of the top quarter – as I write this, Stosur has won the first set against Jankovic, and might play Schiavone in the final. If Stosur does win the event, it will be one of the few things I’ve been right about this tournament.
Back later.