Wimbledon Day 2: According to Form - Mostly

Fabio Fognini’s had quite a month, hasn’t he? At Roland Garros, the Italian stunned Gael Monfils in the second round of a competitive, controversial five-set match en route to the third round. At Wimbledon, he drew Fernando Verdasco in the first round … and put together a four-set upset, knocking out the eighth seed 7-6(9), 6-2, 6-7(6), 6-4 win.
In another upset in the third quarter of the draw, Xavier Malisse, the former Wimbledon semifinalist, took out Juan Carlos Ferrero, who’s also been competent on grass, but who hasn’t played as well as his ranking and draws have suggested he should at the Slams this season. That’s in the section with American Sam Querrey, who was up two sets when his opponent, s’Hertogenbosch winner Sergiy Stakhovsky, retired with an injury.
More surprising, to my mind, was Marcos Baghdatis’ four-set loss to Lukas Lacko. With his talent, Baghdatis is a guy I expected to go further in the draw, especially since, historically, he’s been good on fast surfaces.
Surprisingly, those losses mean surprisingly little. The favorites in the bottom half are still Rafael Nadal, despite his tough draw, Andy Murray and Robin Soderling. Also lurking is the ninth seed, David Ferrer, if we see a couple upsets in the bottom quarter.
In the top quarter, Murray shouldn’t have too much to worry about. He should have a tough match against in-form American Sam Querrey in the Round of 16, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga should be waiting in the quarters, but that’s what I expected at the start. Julien Benneteau is a dangerous player in Tsonga’s section, but I’m still favoring the 10th seed to get through there.
Nadal, seeded second, had a straightforward win over Kei Nishikori and still has a brutal second round, against Robin Haase of the Netherlands. After that, believe it or not, his draw seems to ease up in the third and fourth rounds. The players I favored to be there, Thiemo de Bakker or John Isner have both had very long early matches, and now, I think there’s a distinct chance neither will be there for Nadal in the fourth round. Really, the five guys still in that section probably all have decent chances of getting through.
The women’s draw was mostly the same, although there was a this-changes-everything moment when Samantha Stosur went out in the first round to qualifier Kaia Kanepi. Granted, Kanepi is a very talented player – she’s been ranked much higher in the past. Still, you’re coming off a Grand Slam final, you’re a top doubles player with an attacking game, and you go out 6-4, 6-4 in the first round? Not a good result.
Believe it or not, Stosur was one of only two seeds on the women’s side to lose today. The second was Lucie Safarova, who lost to Dominika Cibulkova. In reality, though, that’s probably an upset on paper only. Cibulkova’s been to a Grand Slam semifinal and been ranked higher than Safarova. Still, this has to be a disappointing result for her. She’d had a good stretch on the clay and seems to be sinking back into old form.
Serena Williams looked like she wanted to make a statement, when she won the first set of her match against Michelle Larcher de Brito 6-0. Larcher de Brito showed some fight in getting the second set to 6-4, though. Despite the challenge, I doubt Serena will be too worried, and her draw, although interesting, shouldn't be too challenging until the fourth round, where she could play Maria Sharapova, who also looked impressive in her 6-1, 6-0 win over Anastasia Pivovarova.
Right now, there’s not too much more to say. Both Roland Garros finalists are out, but the “A” list contenders – Venus Williams, Serena Williams, Kim Clijsters, Justine Henin and Maria Sharapova – are all in and got through their matches comfortably. If things keep up this way, we could be in for one of the better Grand Slams in recent memory.