Not Another Tennis Blog

A Look at the End of the Women's Tennis Season

2010-11-04T12:37:00.000-07:00

There's lots to get to this post-U.S. Open, and in the post-season, I'll try to get to it a little at a time. For today, I plan to tackle some of the happenings following the U.S. Open.
I'm not going to do that, though, before giving a shout-out to Kim Clijsters, who successfully defended her title from 2009. Clijsters has always been one of the top players on hard courts, but in her first career, that wasn't necessarily reflected in her Grand Slam haul. In her second career, well, it's a different story. She's played four Slams, had a couple odd losses . . . and won two U.S. Opens, and it's hard not to imagine her being a major factor in Australia at the start of the new season.
Now for the rest of the field.
• Not-so-sweet Caroline: Caroline Wozniacki is only 20-years-old, a downright infant in modern tennis terms, but she's the one on top of the rankings for . . . goodness only knows how long. Clijsters and Vera Zvonareva are both within shooting distance in Australia, but they would likely have to win to take over the top spot, and Wozniacki doesn't have too much to defend herself.
Still, her spot at the top feels kind of . . . unfulfilling. A lot of the reason for that is that she didn't exactly put in a dominant year by No. 1 standards (seven titles), and she doesn't have a Grand Slam title to her name. Goodness, in the past 12 months, she doesn't even have a final. She entered the U.S. Open as the top seed following Serena Williams' withdrawal and got beaten in the semifinal (her only one of the year) by Zvonareva. At the WTA championships last week, she lost to Samantha Stosur and Clijsters in the finals. To her credit, she did win back-to-back premier events in Tokyo and Beijing, the biggest titles of her career to date. Ask Jelena Jankovic and Dinara Safina how much those titles mean, though. No, she'll need a Slam, and pretty soon. If not, well, ask Jankovic and Safina how much fun the ensuing pressure can be.
• Vera, Vera close, but no cigar: Imagine your reaction if I'd told you at the start of this year that, not only would Vera Zvonareva end the year as the top-ranked Russian, but that she would be No. 2 in the world! I don't think I would have believed that, yet here we are, back-to-back Grand Slam finals (Wimbledon and the U.S. Open) later, and she is ranked second-best for the year – and she can gain lots of points from the first half of 2011. But she's also going in with expectations for the first time. Whether she lives up to expectations or has a meltdown, which she is known for, it will make for a fascinating show. Big battle with Clijsters for that No. 2 ranking looming in Australia.
• The great disappearing act: Has any two-time Grand Slam winner ever failed to finish the year No. 1? Believe it or not, yes. Most recently, in 2006 Amelie Mauresmo won the Australian Open and Wimbledon but finished behind Justine Henin, and in 1987, Martina Navratilova won Wimbledon and the U.S. Open but still came in second behind Steffi Graf. Both Henin and Graf "only" won the French Open, but Henin also reached all four Grand Slam finals (losing to Mauresmo both times they played in the Slams) and won the WTA Championships, and Graf won 11 titles and reached the final of every tournament she played that year. Moral of the story: It can be done, but it has generally taken a Herculean effort to do so.
Until this year. Serena Williams won two Grand Slam titles (the Australian Open and Wimbledon), but she only played six tournaments all year, and by the time the dust settled, had fallen to fourth. Ouch. Now, yes, injury did have something to do with it, but Serena didn't exactly light things up outside those two Slams. Now, a little less than half her points are wrapped up in the first two tournaments of the year. All I'll say about that is she'd better be ready.
Venus Williams isn't in a much better position – she only played nine tournaments, and 3,585 of her 4,985 points are tied up in the pre-Wimbledon tournaments. Unless she plans on playing more, Venus might not be able to afford a bad day in the first half of next year.
• Also unable to afford a bad day right away next year is Justine Henin. Of her 3,415 points, 1,600 come off in January. And, because she isn't attempting to defend her Brisbane points, she probably won't be ranked higher than 13th coming into the Australian Open. That means she could draw a top-four player in the Round of 16. Based on her reputation alone, Henin should accumulate enough points to keep her safe in the Top 20, but tennis is a funny sport – who knows what could happen? Worst case scenario – she falls outside the Top 30.
• Who won Roland Garros again? Mean I know, but when a player reaches (or wins) her first Grand Slam final, she seems to have two options – keep pushing forward, or get left behind, and Francesca Schiavone and Samantha Stosur have been less than impressive in the second half of the year. Both, to their credit, reached the U.S. Open quarterfinals, but other than that, they were very quiet until the WTA Championships, where Stosur reached the semis. What will 2011 bring? For Stosur, it means big pressure straight out of the gate, as she plays in her home country. For Schiavone, who knows? At this point, I think she's playing with house money – and her biggest concern is this weekend's Fed Cup final against the United States. Whatever she does, her tennis is all kinds of fun to watch. Watch it if you can.
• Also with lots to lose: Jelena Jankovic hasn't made much of an impression in the second half of the year, either. Yet, she played well enough on clay to qualify for the WTA Championships, where she went winless. She has a good chance to gain points and move up before she defends Indian Wells in March. She'd better take advantage of it, because if she doesn't, she risks falling out of the Top 10.
Na Li started the season with an Australian Open semifinal. About 10 months later, that result is nearly a quarter of her ranking. Lose early in Australia, and she can probably kiss the Top 15 goodbye. She'll also have a lot to defend on the clay. She needs to be careful, or her big results later in the year (Wimbledon and Beijing) will be much harder to defend.
• Victoria Azarenka gave everybody a scare with her U.S. Open concussion, but after a few weeks of rest (which should have started before she collapsed on court), she bounced back nicely, with a semifinal in Beijing and a win in Moscow, which helped her qualify for the WTA Championships. She has a fair amount to defend at the start of the year, but as one of the better hardcourt players out there, she's certainly capable.
• "Peer"ing ahead: Relatively speaking, Shahar Peer doesn't have much to defend early on – 490 points total, but those points equal a semifinal and final in two warm-up events and a third-round at the Australian Open. If she's going to make a run at the Top 10, most of her points are tied up in the clay-court season and in the U.S. Open and later. Her chances to gain will be here, and between Roland Garros and the U.S. Open.
• Agnieszka Radwanska had slipped out of the Top 10 before her season ended with a foot injury. The good news for her, coming back, is that she doesn't have much to lose before Dubai. Then, though, she has over 1,000 points to defend at Dubai, Indian Wells and Miami. Healthy, she's capable of doing it. And if she doesn't, she has plenty of chances on clay to make up for that.
• To be honest, I was surprised to find Nadia Petrova ranked 15th. Here's another player who didn't make a big impression early but then fizzled out towards the end, before her season was ended by injury. She's got lots of points tied up in the first half of the season, particularly her Australian Open and Roland Garros quarterfinals.
Well, that's all for now, back with more later.

Opening Round Action at the U.S. Open

2010-09-02T09:34:00.000-07:00

Sorry I've been away so long (I even had a few ideas for summer posts that I didn't get to!). Well, this is a tennis player's last shot at major glory before the sport goes back into quiet time before the year-end tournaments, and you know players should be giving everything they have to make this shot count. With that in mind, here are a few thoughts on what we've seen so far:
• Scary incident: Tennis shouldn't be feeling too good today, one day after one of the top women's contenders, Victoria Azarenka, went down with a head injury - literally. She collapsed on court, trailing 1-5 to Gisela Dulko. More on that later, though.
• The American men: Andy Roddick is gone, but the U.S. men still have plenty to talk about as Round 2 gets underway. Sam Querrey, John Isner, Mardy Fish, James Blake, Taylor Dent and young Ryan Harrison are still in, and I fully expect at least two of those guys to be alive for weekend action.
• Ho hum: That's what much of the women's tournament has been like. On the opening Monday, all 16 seeded women advanced to the second round! On Day 2, we did get a few upsets, the biggest probably being Li Na, who fell to Katerina Bondarenko, but 28 of the 32 seeded women were still in the tournament as of the end of the first round. As of this writing, six unseeded players have reached the third round, but three of them (Patty Schnyder, Ana Ivanovic and Virginie Razzano) are hardly what you'd call surprises. to be honest, there isn't that much to be excited about in the women's draw this year. Clijsters vs. Kvitova is probably the most exciting third-round match (potentially), or Stosur vs. Kleybanova (upset potential there). Jankovic vs. Kanepi also has the potential to be good - if it happens. Wozniacki vs. Sharapova is still the Round of 16 match to watch for. Beyond that, I'm hoping for a Clijsters vs. Williams semifinal, but that might be the de facto final. The women just seem a couple stars short . . . oh wait. They are. Here's to hoping Serena Williams and Justine Henin get back into fighting shape sooner, rather than later.
• A little better: The men have been a little more topsy-turvy. The biggest guns - Nadal, Federer, Djokovic and Murray are in and looking to be at different points right now. There's the American crowd, of course, and there's been a few upsets as well.
Marcos Baghdatis and Tomas Berdych have been sent packing, along with Ernests Gulbis, Radek Stepanek, Juan Monaco, Fernando Gonzalez, Ivan Ljubicic and former champions Lleyton Hewitt and Roddick. As of right now, only 23 of the 32 seeds are still in, but you still get the feeling there are some exciting matches to come. Advantage men, this tournament.
• Fearful predictions - women: I think we see Clijsters/Williams in the semis. Venus had a tough time with Rebecca Marino yesterday, but if her knee's okay, I'm not too worried about her draw, especially now that Azarenka is out. The other side is much less predictable, but Maria Sharapova has shown signs of life this summer. Caroline Wozniacki is the hottest player coming in, but I don't know if she's ready to win a Slam yet. Jelena Jankovic has been quiet, but Vera Zvonareva did some nice things this summer. I'll pick Sharapova to reach the finals.
• Fearful predictions - men: I don't think Rafael Nadal reaches the finals. His draw is pretty good, but he'll likely have Andy Murray waiting for him in the semis, and I think Murray's got his number on this surface. For the bottom half, it's hard to imagine anyone getting through Roger Federer, but I thought the same thing at Roland Garros and Wimbledon, and look how that turned out! It's hard to pick someone other than Federer, but if I have to make a second pick, it would probably be Robin Soderling. Djokovic's draw doesn't look so bad, but there are obstacles there. I'll pick him third.
Back with more later.

Wimbledon Week 2 - The Ladies

2010-07-08T12:24:00.000-07:00

A few thoughts on the second week of Wimbledon for the women:
Queen Serena: If Rafael Nadal is the king of men's tennis right now, then no doubt, Serena Williams is queen of the women. If Roland Garros was played on grass or hard courts, I have no doubt Serena would be playing for THE Grand Slam at the U.S. Open in September. As it is, she'll be playing for her third Slam title of the year, and she's got to be the odds-on favorite to win it. She's playing well, she seems to be fit and she's motivated, and when she's motivated, I don't think anyone can stop her. I heard commentators asking if Serena was now in the discussion of the greatest player ever. My answer is a blunt "no." Like Nadal, I think Serena's on the "B-Plus" list, but at 13 Slams, she hasn't yet joined the Margaret Smith Court, Steffi Graf, Helen Wills Moody, Chris Evert, Martina Navratilova club. Get back to me, though, in about six months, when I fully expect Serena to win her 15th Slam at the Australian Open. That's my magic number for putting her on the "A" list.
Venus Out of Orbit? One of Venus Williams' goals this year was to get back to the top of the women's game. No doubt, she's accomplished that – in a way. For a month this spring, she got back to No. 2, but let's face it, her results in the last four Grand Slams are not befitting of a No. 2 player – two Round of 16 losses and two quarterfinal losses. The most recent one, her 6-3, 6-2 defeat to Tsvetana Pironkova, was especially dismal. Williams is now 30, and as much as I'm pulling for her to pull her game together in the Slams, all greats fall eventually. Could she be doing that, now?
Vera, Vera Good: When I first saw Vera Zvonareva, the Russian was 17-years-old, and she was taking it to Serena Williams in the Round of 16 at Roland Garros. I expected great things from her then, but in the eight years that followed, she only reached one Grand Slam quarterfinal, and more often than not, her head got the better of her. Now at 25, she's finally found a way to keep those nerves (mostly) in check, and she's started turning in results closer to what I expected from her. She's the third surprise Grand Slam finalist in two Slams, but we'll see if Zvonareva can live up to this run. If she starts reaching quarterfinals and occasional semis at the Slams, then she will have done so.
Czech Mate: That's what Tomas Berdych had in the second week of Wimbledon this year, in the form of compatriot Petra Kvitova, who reached the semis. So far, from her generation, we've seen Caroline Wozniacki reach a Grand Slam final, Yanina Wickmayer reach a semifinal, Sabine Lisicki reach a quarterfinal and Victoria Azarenka reach the Top 10 and reach multiple Slam quarterfinals. None of them have lived up to those results, though, for various reasons. We'll see if Kvitova can break that trend.
Disappointing Belgians: If you had told me at the start of the tournament that the winner of the projected Kim Clijsters/Justine Henin Round of 16 would not have to face a Williams sister until the second Saturday, you can bet your bottom dollar I would have penciled that player into the final. Instead, we got one of the weirdest Grand Slam results I can remember. Henin got hurt in the first set, went down in three and is already out of the U.S. Open, and Clijsters took all the momentum she gained from that win and ... went away in the third set against Zvonareva, a player she had never lost to. All credit to Zvonareva for staying tough, but if you're one of the top players in the game – and Clijsters is as much as anyone right now – you cannot lose that match. It will be interesting to see what the hard-court season brings for her.
Kanepi's Run: Quick, which women's singles player played the most matches at Wimbledon this year? Serena and Zvonareva? Nope - try Kaia Kanepi, who played eight in reaching the quarterfinals. Kanepi came into Wimbledon with a top 100 ranking, but because the cutoff for the main draw was six weeks before the tournament, she was relegated to the qualifying tournament, where she won three matches and then did not lose a set until the second set of that quarterfinal, against Kvitova. Despite having multiple match points, Kanepi could not close the deal, losing 8-6 in the third. So what does she take away from this month? That she qualified for Roland Garros and Wimbledon and played tough at both events? Or that she lost a chance to get to the semis? We'll find out soon enough. and in the mean time, we know Kanepi won't be playing qualifying at the U.S. Open or any other Grand Slam tournament in the near future.

Wimbledon Week 2 - The Men

2010-07-08T11:26:00.000-07:00

So how about that? I have to be gone for a week and then come back after the entire tournament has blown up! Well, as much a tournament won by the No. 1 players in the world can blow up.
Who would have guessed that Roger Federer and Venus Williams, two players who combined for 11 Wimbledon titles and four finals, would have lost within about 24 hours of each other? On Tuesday and Wednesday, not Saturday and Sunday! Who knew that one of the women's semifinals would feature two players whose combined ranking was on the wrong side of 100? Who would have guessed after the third round that Rafael Nadal would right his ship so spectacularly in the second week of the tournament?
By now, it doesn't make much sense to rehash news that's so old, so I'll offer a few thoughts on what I saw and heard about.
Roddick Flames Out: This has got to hurt. In the past 12 months, Andy Roddick has been on the losing end of a 16-14 Wimbledon final, a fifth-set tie-breaker at the U.S. Open and now a 9-7 fourth round here. No doubt Roddick is tough to get to those positions, but at what point does his inability to close the deal become a pattern? It seems to me, when he starts going out to guys outside the top 50 in those situations, we're at that point.
Berdych has arrived: Two wins over Federer in 2010 have to cement Berdych's status as a top-five contender coming into the hard-court season and the U.S. Open. It will be interesting to see how the Czech player handles his new status, but after a semifinal run in Paris and a final at Wimbledon, there can be no doubt – he's one of the big boys, now. Whether that will be a blessing or a curse for him remains to be seen.
Federer's Sour Grapes: No doubt, getting bounced out of Roland Garros in the quarterfinals and losing his No. 1 ranking was a shock, but it couldn't have been nearly as big of a surprise as going down here. Federer had lost to Tomas Berdych at the Olympics, when Berdych was just emerging as a talented player, but until this year, seemed to have the younger player's number. Now, Federer may really have been injured, and he may not have had much time to clear his head after losing to Berdych, but his comments after his loss, still weren't in the best of taste. And it's not like this is the first time he has displayed questionable behavior after a match. The "15" coat last year, anyone?
I love watching Federer play. He's the main reason I watch men's tennis, but incidents like this make me cringe. You've spent a career turning yourself into the standard for other players to follow, Roger. Don't lower yourself with this kind of stuff, now.
King Rafa: You want evidence of how quickly tennis changes? Four months ago, Rafael Nadal wasn't even a top three player, and people were wondering if he would ever get back to where he once belonged. Now, Nadal is indisputably the best in the sport this year, thanks to back-to-back Grand Slam titles and an undefeated run on the clay. Nadal's not an A-List all-time player yet – that list still "only" contains Federer, Pete Sampras, Roy Emerson, Rod Laver and Bjorn Borg. Make no mistake, though, Nadal's on the B-Plus list, and if he wins the U.S. Open, for my money, he joins the "A" group.
74 Years . . . and Still Counting: Quick everyone – when was the last time a British man won Wimbledon? Andy Murray even had the Queen cheering for him this year, and it still didn't do him much good. No doubt, he played well against Nadal, but when he needed to be better, he wasn't. That's probably a very harsh analysis, but it's the truth. Murray can come out of the summer Slams proud that he's turned around his dismal spring, but if he's going to break England's 74-year drought at his home Slam and put the ghost of Fred Perry to rest, he's probably going to have to find a way to break through "Fedal." So far, he hasn't figured it out.
We Love Lu: Was there a bigger surprise in the second week of the tournament than Yen-Hsun Lu? Had he lost to Roddick in that Round of 16 match, Lu would have had a fantastic tournament. Instead, he went out and stared down a guy who isn't exactly known for his timidness on the court and found himself in the quarterfinals. Quick – when was the last time you saw a guy from any Asian country in the quarterfinals of any Grand Slam? I can honestly say I've never seen it. The question, now is will we see it again?
Understanding Djokovic: You know, not to long ago, Novak Djokovic was indisputably the third-best man in the sport. Now, I don't know what to make of him. Are his breathing problems really that bad? Is he just not in the same league? Is he ever going to take the next step we all thought he was taking when he won the Australian Open in 2008? I don't know. What I do know is that the computer says Djokovic is ranked second, and I don't believe it. More and more, that Australian Open is starting to look like one of those random results tennis throws out once in awhile. After all, Djokovic is one of only TWO men not named Federer or Nadal who has won a Grand Slam since 2005, and in tennis terms, Djokovic should be in his prime.

Day 6: The Men

2010-06-26T17:50:00.000-07:00

No doubt about it, Rafael Nadal had a tough draw. Even before he started the tournament, he had a lot of big servers and aggressive players standing between him and the Wimbledon final. After three rounds, though, I am concerned. He's played five-setters in his past two rounds, and although he's still in the tournament, the toughest part of the draw is still ahead of him, and he's looking ... less than fantastic. Today, he was again down two-sets-to-one, but he came back and beat Philipp Petzschner 6-4, 4-6, 6-7(5), 6-2, 6-3.
For his effort, Nadal now gets Paul-Henri Mathieu, who needed four sets and three tiebreakers, 7-6(5), 7-6(6), 6-7(8), 6-4 to take out Thiemo de Bakker. Mathieu is a dangerous opponent, a career underachiever, and if he's not sharp, Nadal could be in for another long day Monday.
And most likely, Robin Soderling will be waiting for the winner of that match in the quarters. Soderling has been sharp so far, and his strong play continued today, with a 6-4, 6-2, 7-5 win over Thomaz Bellucci. The Swede has to be looking ahead, though. If he gets through David Ferrer, he gets Nadal/Mathieu with a great chance at moving forward, possibly to next Sunday.
So what's the difference between a top player and an almost-top player? Jeremy Chardy led Ferrer by a break through most of their fifth-set ... until he had to serve for it. Then, Ferrer hit a string of winners to break at 15, and swept through the last two games for a 7-5, 6-3, 4-6, 3-6, 7-5 win. That's the difference. Now, he comes in as a serious underdog against Soderling.
In the third quarter, it's been a tale of the unsurprising upsets. The most interesting Round of 16 match here should be Andy Murray, a 6-1 6-4, 6-4 winner over Gilles Simon, against Sam Querrey. Querrey had a deceptively tough customer in Xavier Malisse, but he outlasted the Belgian in - wait for it - a five-set marathon, 6-7(4), 6-4, 6-2, 5-7, 9-7. After flaming out in Paris, Querrey came to the grass refreshed, and he should give Murray a tough fight. I'd be lying if I said I had a favorite in that one. Murray's going to have the crowd and the home-court advantage in his favor, and that could make the difference.
If he does win this one, Murray will most likely play Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Tsonga, coming off a five-set win, was back in top form, taking out Tobias Kamke 6-1, 6-4, 7-6(1) and will now play compatriot Julien Benneteau, who beat Fabio Fognini 6-4, 6-1, 2-6, 6-3. One thing you learn if you follow tennis is to never fully trust matches between players from the same country, and I don't fully trust this one. No doubt, Tsonga should be favored, but Benneteau has been in good form these past six weeks.
Back Monday with Round of 16 coverage.

Day 6: The Women

2010-06-26T17:11:00.000-07:00

Another day, another blockbuster Round of 16 match. One day after Kim Clijsters and Justine Henin set up their Monday matchup, Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova followed suit. Williams got a fight in the second set of her 6-0, 7-5 win over Dominika Cibulkova, and Sharapova was also tested in her 7-5, 6-3 win over Barbora Zahlavova Strycova, but both are safely through. My head says Williams wins this one, but after the injuries she's dealt with these past few years, my heart is a little more with Sharapova. Either way, what a Round of 16!
The winner of that match will get the winner of - not a blockbuster in terms of names, but potentially one in terms of interesting tennis. Agnieszka Radwanska isn't the first name that comes to mind when talking about the top women, but make no mistake, she's a feisty, clever player. Na Li has officially joined the upper tier of women in the past 12 months, and she is also feisty, as well as strong and aggressive. And both had nearly identical scorelines - Radwanska beat Sara Errani 6-3, 6-1, and Li bested Anastasia Rodionova 6-1, 6-3.
One player who's had the luxury of floating quietly through her draw is Caroline Wozniacki. I thought Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova might give her some trouble, and she did, but Wozniacki proved to be just a little tougher, winning 7-5, 6-4. She gets to play one of the surprise players in the third round, Petra Kvitova. Kvitova, 20, upset Victora Azarenka 7-5, 6-0, but in tennis circles, this isn't a stunning result. Kvitova's a big player at 6'0" and a big hitter, and she's been to this stage before - she reached the Round of 16 at the U.S. Open last year. Like Pavlyuchenkova, Kvitova has a shot against Wozniacki, but I expect the Dane to keep going.
The final match of the top half will feature a couple more surprise players. Samantha Stosur's upset opened a door in the bottom half of the draw, and Klara Zakapalova and Kaia Kanepi have stepped right through. After beating Stosur on Day 2, Kanepi kept going, and she hasn't dropped a set yet, most recently demolishing 31st seed Alexandra Dulgheru 6-1, 6-2. What's more, she won't be awed by the situation. She's a former top 30 player who had a slump last year, but after qualifying and winning matches at consecutive Slams, I think it's safe to say she's back. Zakopalova, who took out 10th seed Flavia Pennetta 6-3, 6-3, is much more surprising. This is the first time she's advanced this far at any Slam, and only the second time she's advanced past the second round of a Grand Slam. It's hard to know how she will respond in this situation.

Day 5: The Men

2010-06-25T18:30:00.000-07:00

Well, that's more like it.
After two rounds of struggling, Roger Federer played the match we've all expected the No.l player in the world to play. Going up against Arnaud Clement, Federer earned a strong 6-2, 6-4, 6-2 victory and after a rocky start, and has found his way safely into the second week.
Federer's next opponent is going to be Jurgen Melzer. The Austrian veteran, coming off his career-best result at Roland Garros, followed that up with his best Wimbledon, besting Feliciano Lopez, no slouch on grass, in four sets. Federer's got to like his chances there.
Tomas Berdych got tested for the first time in his third-round match, against Denis Istomin. Istomin won a pair of tiebreakers, but Berdych hung tough, and his greater experience in best-of-five matches probably proved to be the difference, as he is also safely into the Round of 16, 6-7(1), 7-6(3), 6-7(4), 6-3, 6-4.
He gets to play another big server, German Daniel Brands, who lost the first two sets against Victor Hanescu in tiebreakers but came back, winning the third set, and then breaking Hanescu in the fourth. After winning the set 6-3, he jumped out to a 3-0 lead before Hanescu retired.
After all of the tough matches the top guys have gone through, Novak Djokovic and Lleyton Hewitt are suddenly looking good. Too bad they play each other next. Djokovic has bounced back from being down two-sets-to-one in his first-round, against Olivier Rochus, but he's come through his next two matches easily, including his 6-1, 6-4, 6-4 third round win over Albert Montanes. Hewitt had a potentially tough opponent in Gael Monfils, but his biggest scare came in the second set, when Monfils forced a tiebreaker that went 11-9. After that, it was fairly comfortable sailing, as Hewitt won 6-3, 7-6, 6-4. That sets up a potentially good Round of 16 match, definitely the best one of the top half.
After cruising through his first-round, Andy Roddick has lost sets to Michael Llodra and now to Philipp Kohlschreiber, this time 7-5, 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-3. Still, he's got to be feeling good about his chances, too.
I'll admit, when I looked at the draw, Yen-Hsun Lu was not the guy I expected Roddick to be playing, but here he is, taking advantage of Florian Mayer's retirement at 6-4, 6-4, 2-1. Actually, Lu's had a pretty comfortable road to this point - he's the only man in the top half who hasn't lost a set. It will be interesting to see what he does against Roddick.
Tomorrow, things continue with the bottom half of the men's draw. Matches I'll be follwowing? Mathieu vs. de Bakker and Malisse vs. Querrey. Also in action are Rafael Nadal and Robin Soderling.

Day 5: The Women

2010-06-25T09:27:00.000-07:00

The top women's players certainly haven't made much fuss this first week, have they? In fact, with all the talk about the men's draw, you might have forgotten the women were even playing.
They're still around, though, and they might very well be setting themselves up to upstage the men in the second week of the tournament – especially the bottom half of the draw, which was in action today.
The match to watch, between Justine Henin and Nadia Petrova, ended up being a blowout. Henin came in with a 13-2 advantage, so she was favored to start with, but when she served 80 percent in the first set alone and made just three unforced errors; well, you just knew she was in for a short day. The second set did get a little more interesting – Henin's not the greatest server in women's tennis, so you knew her percentage had to drop, and it did. Petrova took a 3-1 lead early, but Henin bounced back, and her numbers for the match remained gaudy (for her) – 70 percent of her first serves in, six aces, one double fault, five unforced errors and 26 winners, and she ended up winning 6-1, 6-4. Her only two unforced errors of the entire second set were in the game where she was broken. Now, Henin has always been an inconsistent match-to-match player, but if she can keep up anything close to this, she's going to give her next opponent a very tough match.
That next opponent just happens to be her compatriot, Kim Clijsters. Clijsters was never really in trouble against Maria Kirilenko, taking early breaks in each set and not getting pushed in her 6-3, 6-3 win. Clijsters was also impressive on serve, hitting 81 percent of her attempts and hitting five aces against two double faults and 20 winners against 14 unforced errors. Her match against Henin should be a blockbuster. Henin won the last time these two played on grass and leads 2-1 on the surface (the loss was a retirement in 2003), but Clijsters has been the better player in their two matches this year. She's needed third-set tie-breakers both times, but she's also had mental lapses in both of those matches and probably should have won them in straight sets.
The winner of that match will get the winner of Jelena Jankovic vs. Vera Zvonareva. Zvonareva's been up-and-down over the course of her career, but she's on a high right now. She was pretty even with Yanina Wickmayer except for in a crucial category – points won on serve. Zvonareva won 41 percent of the points on Wickmayer's serve, while her Belgian opponent only won 21 percent of her receiving points. The result was a 6-4, 6-2 victory, and Zvonareva's second Round of 16 at a Slam this year.
She might have a tall task to go further, though. After a quiet 2009 and a slow start to 2010, Jankovic is again looking like an elite player. She won 81 percent of her first-serve points in a dominant 6-0, 6-3 win over Alona Bondarenko. However, the next quarterfinal Jankovic reaches here will be her first. She's yet to advance further than the fourth round in seven tries at Wimbledon, and grass has proven to be her weakest surface. Could an upset be brewing here?
Tsvetana Pironkova and Jarmila Groth aren't exactly household names, but neither are nobodies to tennis fans, either. Both are solid players who made some noise as teenagers, and today, both advance to the Round of 16 for the first time at Wimbledon. Pironkova advanced to her first Grand Slam Round of 16 when Regina Kulikova retired at 6-4, 2-0, and Groth got through Angelique Kerber 6-3, 7-5, to reach her second consecutive fourth round.
Both will be hard-pressed to go further. Pironkova will now play Marion Bartoli, who committed just seven unforced errors in her 6-3, 6-4 win over Greta Arn. She was also very strong on serve, winning 83 percent of her points, and she hit 19 winners. The 2007 runner-up should be heavily favored in this Round of 16 match.
Groth has an even tougher opponent, in five-time champion Venus Williams. Williams stayed on serve with Alisa Kleybanova until 5-4, and from there, she never looked back, winning seven of the last nine games. Williams had 24 winners and 15 unforced errors in the match, and she's got a very nice path to the semifinals. There's even a chance she won't play a Top-10 player until the finals, if Henin or Zvonareva comes through the other quarter. No matter who she plays, given her history here, and her opponents' history, it's hard to bet against her playing for Title No. 6 next Saturday.
Back with the men's results later.

Day 4: The Women

2010-06-24T14:46:00.001-07:00

So now, we know all 32 women in the third round. The top half of the women's draw completed their second-round matches today, and only 10 of the 16 seeds in this half are still alive.
That group is headlined by Serena Williams, who waited a long time to get on court, and then spent precious little time there once her match started. She clobbered former top 10 player Anna Chakvetadze 6-0, 6-1 on Court 2. It's hard to believe, with that scoreline, that Chakvetadze was once one of the top young players in the sport. She's a long, long way away from that now, and it doesn't look like she's close to getting back to that level.
Williams is still on course to face Maria Sharapova, who was also very strong in her 6-1, 6-4 win over Ioana Raluca Olaru. Those two are now one match away from meeting up in the Round of 16. Serena needs to get through Dominika Cibulkova, and Sharapova needs to bat Barbora Zahlavova-Strycova to make it happen. Definitely doable.
Waiting for them in the quarters will probably be either Na Li or Agnieszka Radwanska. Radwanska has looked good in her first two rounds, and today beat Alberta Brianti of Italy 6-2, 6-0. Li topped Kurumi Nara 6-2, 6-4 and could make it past Radwanska, should the two of them meet. Don't forget, she was a semifinalist at the Australian Open this year and beat Sharapova in the warm-up at Birmingham. She'll be tough to beat.
I haven't seen Caroline Wozniacki play yet, but she can't be complaining too much about her draw. She plays Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova next. Both have looked good in their early matches. Pavlyuchenkova gave Serena a fight at Roland Garros, and she's due for a breakthrough against a top player. Is there a chance it could come here? Yes, but probably not a great one. Petra Kvitova and Victoria Azarenka play the other third-round match here. Kvitova's a big hitter who reached the Round of 16 at the U.S. Open last year, and she's in the same generation as Sabine Lisicki, Cibulkova and Yanina Wickmayer. Of the four, she's the least accomplished, but if Azarenka's not 100 percent, and she didn't look like she was in Eastbourne, Kvitova's got a chance.
The winner of that section will most likely advance from that quarter, because the rest of the players there aren't quite so strong. Flavia Pennetta's lived up to her seeding of 10th, but her results on grass haven't been the best. She'll play Klara Zakopalova for the right to play either Alexandra Dulgheru or Kaia Kanepi. Kanepi followed up her first-round upset over Samantha Stosur with a 6-4, 7-5 win over Edina Gallovits, but Dulgheru's been impressive on the grass. Right now, I'm leaning a little bit towards her to get out of that section.

Day 4: The Men

2010-06-24T14:23:00.000-07:00

Well, we know most of the guys in the third-round of Wimbledon, now. There are still two second-round matches to be completed – Youzhny vs. Mathieu and de Bakker vs. Isner. The winners of those matches play each other for the right to most likely play Rafael Nadal in the Round of 16.
Maybe we should start calling the bottom quarter of the draw the marathon quarter. De Bakker is already the winner of a five-set match that went 16-14, and I won't bother repeating Isner's result. Nadal and his opponent, Philipp Petzschner are also both coming off of five-set matches. Nadal's was a 5-7, 6-2, 3-6, 6-0, 6-2 win over Robin Haase, a guy who's just starting to get back to where he belongs in the tennis world after injury, and Petszchner needed 6-4, 3-6, 4-6, 6-3, 6-2 to top Lukasz Kubot. One thing is for sure, whoever gets to the quarterfinals from this section will have earned it.
Also in that quarter is Robin Soderling, who looked pretty good in his 7-5, 6-1-6-4 win over Marcel Granollers. He gets to play Thomaz Bellucci, who needed a long four-setter to top Martin Fischer of Austria, 6-7(11), 7-6(4), 7-6(1), 6-2. I think the Brazilian's run ends here, but give him some credit – he's done well for a South American who's perceived as a clay-court specialist. Could he be another of the new breed of clay-courters who can succeed on other surfaces? It certainly looks that way.
The other match in that quarter pits the ninth-seed, David Ferrer against unseeded Frenchman Jeremy Chardy, who won another marathon, 6-3, 7-6(4), 4-6, 6-7(5), 8-6 over Lukas Lacko. I'm going with Ferrer in that one, although Chardy might give him some trouble.
In the third quarter, Andy Murray, playing in front of Queen Elizabeth II, made short work of Jarkko Nieminen, 6-3, 6-4, 6-2. He will play Gilles Simon, who's had a quiet year, but is in the third round, thanks in part to a walkover. The other U.S. man in the bottom half, Sam Querrey, plays Xavier Malisse for a shot at Murray. Querrey will be favored there, and rightfully so, but don't take Malisse too lightly. He is a former Wimbledon semifinalist who knows how to play on grass.
Whoever comes out of that section will probably be playing a Frenchman. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is the highest seed left, but he needed another marathon – 10-8 in the fifth – to beat Alexandr Dolgopolov. For his efforts, he gets unseeded Tobias Kamke for the right to play either compatriot Julien Benneteau or Fabio Fognini. Fognini followed up his upset win over Fernando Verdasco with a 3-6, 5-7, 7-5, 7-6(6), 6-3 win over Michael Russel, and Benneteau also needed – you guessed it – five sets to beat Andreas Beck 3-6, 6-2, 4-6, 7-6(5), 6-3.
Up tomorrow on the men's side will be the end of the second round (hopefully) and the start of the third. Back with more on the men then.

6-4, 3-6, 6-7(7), 7-6(3), 70-68

2010-06-24T11:27:00.000-07:00

Because of my day job, I don't get to watch too much tennis coverage, but I do tune in when I can. On the ESPN coverage Wednesday morning, I got to see some of the resumption of the match between John Isner and Nicolas Mahut. The two had split the first four sets on Tuesday when play was suspended, and when they picked things up again, it was clear that neither wanted to give up the match. I think it was about 9-9 when I left for work, and it didn't look like the end was anywhere in sight, but I didn't think that necessarily meant anything – the match could have gone into the teens or 20s … or it could end in the next two or three games. That seems to be the way these matches go.
So imagine my amazement when I checked the scores during my lunch break and found they were still going on. I had to do a take a second look, to make sure I had seen right. At that point, the score was in the upper-30s . . . I think. I checked the scores a couple more times that afternoon, and my amazement only grew. When the match ended for the second consecutive day, tied at 59-59, I mentioned the score to one of my co-workers and told her, "This doesn't happen."
Anyone who's been a tennis fan for a while knows that. This doesn't happen – at least, it has never happened before. By the time it got done, and Isner had advanced to the second round, 6-4, 3-6, 6-7(7), 7-6(3), 70-68, this match had shattered all kinds of records. It is the longest match in tennis history – 11 hours, five minutes, four hours, 32 minutes longer than the second longest. The fifth set alone – at eight hours, 11 minutes – was over two hours longer than the second-longest match. The two played a total of 183 games, the most for one match, and the most games in one set – 138.
The two combined for a mind-boggling 215 aces – Isner now has the all-time record for most aces served in a match, 112, and Mahut is second, at 103. The previous record was 78, set last fall by Ivo Karlovic. On Jon Wertheim’s twitter feed, I read that 10 women have served over 103 aces – for all of 2010. The man with the third-most aces for the entire tournament, Ilija Bozoljac, has 58 – in two matches. Slacker.
No doubt, this match will stay with both players for a long time. Most of the time, you can point to a few moments where a win or loss may have come. How many can Mahut point to in this one? How many places can he look and say “I could have won it here?” What will this match do to his career moving forward? This has got to be a devastating loss, no doubt about it, but can he bounce back? We’ll find out.
Isner immediate future is clear – he goes on to the second round, where he’ll play Thiemo de Bakker, and if you thought Mahut was a dangerous opponent … Isner’s got to be exhausted coming out of this one, but de Bakker also had a tough first round, beating Santiago Giraldo of Colombia 6-7(4), 6-4, 6-3, 5-7, 16-14. No doubt about it, 16-14 is nothing compared to 70-68, and de Bakker’s gotten an extra day of rest, but Isner might not necessarily be a dead man walking when they play tomorrow.
From a logistics standpoint, this match has created a nightmare for tournament organizers. While Isner and Mahut were finishing this first-round match, most of the rest of the bottom half was playing second round matches. Now, Isner vs. de Bakker, and the match featuring their third-round opponent – Mikhail Youzhny vs. Paul-Henri Mathieu – will both be played tomorrow, with the winners playing Saturday for a chance at the Round of 16. The good news is that a lot of the other matches in this section have gone long, meaning the competitive advantage won’t be quite as much as it would have been otherwise. Still, whoever enters the Round of 16 from Rafael Nadal’s section will have an undisputable edge.
Most likely, we won't see the effect of this match on Isner's career until further down the road. It's impossible to know for sure what he'll take out of it, but one thing's for sure - there can be no disputing his toughness. After all, how many tennis players have ever 70-68 to win a tennis match? None of them!
The past three days have been about much more than logistics, though. They’ve been about the sheer beauty and randomness of tennis. After all, who would have thought five days ago, that we’d be talking about Isner and Mahut above any other player in the tournament right now? And absolutely no one would have pointed to this match as being the definitive moment of either man’s career to date. Now, long after both men’s careers are done, their names will go down in the annals of tennis history for one magical match, stretched out over three days, where they played the match no two professional tennis players ever had before.

Day 3: The Women

2010-06-24T09:03:00.000-07:00

Really, the bottom half of the women's draw is a tale of two quarters. There's the Venus Williams quarter, where the second-seed is now one of just three seeds remaining, and there's the third quarter, where all eight seeds are still in, and some very intriguing matches await.
Williams followed sister Serena's pattern in her second-round win over Elena Makarova – win the first set 6-0, get tested in the second but come through 6-4. Easy, right? Up next for Williams is Alisa Kleybanova. After watching Kleybanova in Australia this year, I'll repeat what many others have said – on talent alone, she's a Top 10 player. Add in the fitness, though, and well, you get a player in the second half of the Top 30, who seems destined to live up to her seeding and not do too much more, because she isn't ranked highly enough to get better draws at the big events. Venus should get through that, as well as her fourth round match, against the winner of Angelique Kerber and Jarmila Groth. I'm going to give Groth a little edge here, mainly because of her strong run at Roland Garros. She and Kerber both knocked out seeded players – Kerber took out Shahar Peer 3-6, 6-3, 6-4, and Groth topped Melanie Oudin 6-4, 6-3 – in the second round. I have a feeling Oudin, who was promoted when other players withdrew, would have had a better chance if she'd stayed in the top quarter, where she would have been playing less dangerous players.
Williams' likely quarterfinal opponent is Marion Bartoli, who didn't even have to pick up her racket Wednesday. She earned a walkover over Petra Martic, who was apparently suffering from an abdominal injury. Bartoli now plays Greta Arn, who knocked out Alicia Molik, a dangerous player on the grass, 7-5, 6-4. The other match in that section will feature Tsvetana Pironkova vs. Regina Kulikova. Pironkova has more experience than Kulikova, but that's about all I can really say about this one. It will be interesting, that's for sure.
As I mentioned before, the bottom half is a tale of two quarters, and the top quarter is where things are really interesting. Jelena Jankovic is getting no love from the press so far, even though she's the fourth seed here. She got pushed in the first round, and in the second round, she was pushed a little further – 4-6, 6-2, 6-4, but she's through and will play Alona Bondarenko next. These two should be getting to know each other pretty well. They played in Australia and at Roland Garros this year, splitting matches.
If Jankovic gets through that, she'll play the winner of Yanina Wickmayer vs. Vera Zvonareva. Zvonareva's looked pretty good, but she hasn't had any tough opposition yet – both of her opponents so far were qualifiers. She beat Nuria Llagostera Vives 6-4, 6-1 and then Andrea Hlavackova 6-1, 6-4. Wickmayer was struggling coming in, but she got revenge for her Eastbourne loss to Alison Riske in a three-set match and then out-toughed compatriot Kirsten Flipkens, 7-6(9), 6-4. I'm going to give her an edge in that one.
The top section also features a pair of very intriguing matches. Kim Clijsters, the eighth seed, will be playing Maria Kirilenko, seeded 27th. Really, Clijsters should be heavily favored in that one, but Kirilenko has come up good in the Slams this year. It will be interesting to see if she can get another big upset.
The winner of that match will get the winner of the match of the third round, Nadia Petrova vs. Justine Henin. These two have played twice this year, and Henin's won both, but it's been close – 7-5, 7-5 in Brisbane and 7-6(3), 7-5 at the Australian Open. If Clijsters and Henin both get through, we could be in for a great Round of 16 match. Stay tuned to fine out.

Wimbledon Day 3: The Men

2010-06-24T08:29:00.000-07:00

The Roger Federer watch has been completely pushed to the back-burner by the first-round match that's turned into the story of the tournament so far. For now, here's what's going on in the rest of the men's tournament.
It doesn't look like Federer's struggles were a one-time thing. After being pushed to the brink in the first round – remember, Alejandro Falla served for that match in the fourth set – Federer really needed to come out and stomp his next opponent into the ground to let people know that match was a fluke. He didn't exactly do that, although he did go four sets without dropping serve in his 6-3, 6-7(4), 6-4, 7-6(5) win over Ilija Bozoljac. Clearly, he's still working his way into the tournament. Up next for him is Arnaud Clement. That match should be all kinds of fun, but Federer's got to be glad for his draw right now. The most dangerous opponent in his quarter is now Tomas Berdych, and they aren't seeded meet until the quarterfinals.
Both Federer and Berdych had nice draws to start with, but Berdych's has gotten much nicer after two rounds. Rather than the 20th seed, Stanislas Wawrinka, he will get Denis Istomin in the third round for the right to play either Victor Hanescu or Daniel Brands of Germany in the fourth. I think he'll get through that to get his shot at Federer, and if the top seed's level of play doesn't improve, his tournament could very well end there. Berdych is too dangerous of an opponent to face on an off fortnight.
In the bottom quarter, things have largely gone to form. The surprise third-round match is Forian Mayer vs. Yen-Hsen Lu, but the other six seeds, including No. 3 Novak Djokovic, No. 5 Andy Roddick and No. 15 Lleyton Hewitt are all in and looking tough. Djokovic got a test in the first set of his match against Taylor Dent but advanced in three (7-6[5], 6-1, 6-4). After beating two opponents, in Dent and Olivier Rochus, he has lost to in the past, Djokovic has got to be feeling good about himself moving forward.
Hewitt, after dropping his first set of the tournament, has only lost 11 games in four-and-a-half sets, (His second-round opponent, Evgeny Korolev, retired trailing 6-4, 6-4, 3-0 yesterday.) Now, he gets a real test, against 21st seed Gael Monfils, who needed four sets to get through Karol Beck 6-4, 6-4, 6-7(4), 6-4. This is, without a doubt, the most interesting match of the men's third round.
It's Roddick who has to be feeling best about his tournament so far. He got tested against Michael Llodra, a dangerous grass-court player, but still advanced in four (4-6, 6-4, 6-1, 7-6[2]). Now, he plays a tired Philip Kohlschreiber, who needed 9-7 in the fifth to beat Teimuraz Gabashvili. Roddick should get through that one, as well as his fourth-round match, against either Mayer or Lu, to get to the quarterfinals.
As for the Isner vs. Mahut match, well, I'll post on that when (if?) it ends.

Wimbledon Day 2: According to Form - Mostly

2010-06-24T08:24:00.000-07:00

Fabio Fognini’s had quite a month, hasn’t he? At Roland Garros, the Italian stunned Gael Monfils in the second round of a competitive, controversial five-set match en route to the third round. At Wimbledon, he drew Fernando Verdasco in the first round … and put together a four-set upset, knocking out the eighth seed 7-6(9), 6-2, 6-7(6), 6-4 win.
In another upset in the third quarter of the draw, Xavier Malisse, the former Wimbledon semifinalist, took out Juan Carlos Ferrero, who’s also been competent on grass, but who hasn’t played as well as his ranking and draws have suggested he should at the Slams this season. That’s in the section with American Sam Querrey, who was up two sets when his opponent, s’Hertogenbosch winner Sergiy Stakhovsky, retired with an injury.
More surprising, to my mind, was Marcos Baghdatis’ four-set loss to Lukas Lacko. With his talent, Baghdatis is a guy I expected to go further in the draw, especially since, historically, he’s been good on fast surfaces.
Surprisingly, those losses mean surprisingly little. The favorites in the bottom half are still Rafael Nadal, despite his tough draw, Andy Murray and Robin Soderling. Also lurking is the ninth seed, David Ferrer, if we see a couple upsets in the bottom quarter.
In the top quarter, Murray shouldn’t have too much to worry about. He should have a tough match against in-form American Sam Querrey in the Round of 16, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga should be waiting in the quarters, but that’s what I expected at the start. Julien Benneteau is a dangerous player in Tsonga’s section, but I’m still favoring the 10th seed to get through there.
Nadal, seeded second, had a straightforward win over Kei Nishikori and still has a brutal second round, against Robin Haase of the Netherlands. After that, believe it or not, his draw seems to ease up in the third and fourth rounds. The players I favored to be there, Thiemo de Bakker or John Isner have both had very long early matches, and now, I think there’s a distinct chance neither will be there for Nadal in the fourth round. Really, the five guys still in that section probably all have decent chances of getting through.
The women’s draw was mostly the same, although there was a this-changes-everything moment when Samantha Stosur went out in the first round to qualifier Kaia Kanepi. Granted, Kanepi is a very talented player – she’s been ranked much higher in the past. Still, you’re coming off a Grand Slam final, you’re a top doubles player with an attacking game, and you go out 6-4, 6-4 in the first round? Not a good result.
Believe it or not, Stosur was one of only two seeds on the women’s side to lose today. The second was Lucie Safarova, who lost to Dominika Cibulkova. In reality, though, that’s probably an upset on paper only. Cibulkova’s been to a Grand Slam semifinal and been ranked higher than Safarova. Still, this has to be a disappointing result for her. She’d had a good stretch on the clay and seems to be sinking back into old form.
Serena Williams looked like she wanted to make a statement, when she won the first set of her match against Michelle Larcher de Brito 6-0. Larcher de Brito showed some fight in getting the second set to 6-4, though. Despite the challenge, I doubt Serena will be too worried, and her draw, although interesting, shouldn't be too challenging until the fourth round, where she could play Maria Sharapova, who also looked impressive in her 6-1, 6-0 win over Anastasia Pivovarova.
Right now, there’s not too much more to say. Both Roland Garros finalists are out, but the “A” list contenders – Venus Williams, Serena Williams, Kim Clijsters, Justine Henin and Maria Sharapova – are all in and got through their matches comfortably. If things keep up this way, we could be in for one of the better Grand Slams in recent memory.

Wimbledon Day 1: The Women

2010-06-21T16:15:00.000-07:00

Compared to their male counterparts, the women's draw was a little lackluster today. Of the 32 matches played, only six went to three sets. The biggest upset proved to be Vera Dushevina's 6-7(0), 7-5, 6-1 win over Roland Garros champion Francesca Schiavone. The 2002 junior champion here, Dushevina was dangerous, but I confess that I thought Schiavone could get through that one. Not quite.
There were four other junior champions in action today, and Dushevina wasn't the only one to find success. Her successor, 2003 champion Kirsten Flipkens, had a far less eventful match, topping lucky loser Stephanie Dubois 6-4, 6-4. No doubt Flipkens is feeling lucky, herself – Dubois could have easily been Melanie Oudin, not a junior champion, but a young player who's dangerous on the grass. Oudin, promoted to the 33rd seed after withdrawals, advanced with a 6-3, 6-0 win over Anna-Lena Groenefeld. Up next for Flipkens is compatriot Yanina Wickmayer, and this match could be more interesting than it appears on paper. Wickmayer has been struggling recently, and Flipkens is coming off a good run at s'Hertogenbosch, and she hardly embarrassed herself when she played Maria Sharapova at Roland Garros. She's got to be thinking she has a chance here.
Oudin, however, can't be feeling nearly as lucky. She now plays Jarmila Groth, another former junior great (although not a Wimbledon champion), who is coming off a strong Roland Garros, and if she gets through that, is headed for a collision course with Venus Williams. Tough break, because Williams didn't have too much trouble with Rossana de los Rios, winning her opener 6-3, 6-2.
The other player promoted by withdrawals, Flipkens' successor, 2004 junior champ Kateryna Bondarenko, didn't do so well, going out in three sets to qualifier Greta Arn (7-6[1], 3-6, 6-3). The past two junior champions, Laura Robson (2008) and Noppawan Lertcheewakarn (2009), also went down in defeat. Robson, 16, can be forgiven for losing – she drew fourth-seed Jelena Jankovic and went down 6-3, 7-6(5). Lertcheewakarn went down 6-3, 6-2 to qualifier Andrea Hlavackova. Not a promising result if you're looking to make your way onto the WTA Tour.
Three of the biggest names in the bottom half of the draw are all in the third quarter, and all three got through just fine. Besides Jankovic, Kim Clijsters, the eighth seed, got through Maria Elena Camerin 6-0, 6-3, and 17th seed Justine Henin beat Anastasija Sevastova 6-4, 6-3. They're two wins from a tantalizing Round of 16 match.
Their potential third round opponents, Maria Kirilenko (Clijsters) and Nadia Petrova (Henin) will hope to have something to say about that, though. Kirilenko had the biggest scare of the seeded players, having to come from behind to beat Stefanie Voegele 2-6, 6-4, 7-5. She's got a tough second-round against an opponent in Shenay Perry who should be about as tired as she will be. Perry beat Anastasiya Yakimova 6-2, 4-6, 9-7. Petrova had a much easier time, taking out Tatjana Malek of Germany 6-4, 6-3.
For the most part, the draw went about the way I expected, so I don't feel like there's much more to say. Other notable winners today were Vera Zvonareva, Alona Bondarenko, Yaroslava Shvedova, Marion Bartoli, Shahar Peer (in one of the more disappointing matches of the day – I thought Ana Ivanovic would put up more fight than 6-3, 6-4.) and Alisa Kleybanova. Among the other interesting of the unseeded players who won were Eastbourne champion Ekaterina Makarova; Alicia Molik, who could do some damage in the section vacated by Schiavone; and Karolina Sprem, who beat Venus here a few years ago.
Back with more tomorrow.

Day 1: The Men

2010-06-21T15:45:00.000-07:00

No doubt about it, there's a big difference what was, and what could have been. What could have been after Day 1 – and very easily as it turns out – was a top half of the men's draw without Roger Federer, Nikolay Davydenko or Novak Djokovic. It would have been thrilling today, no doubt about it, but imagine Andy Roddick in 12 days, possibly playing a surprise opponent for a spot in the Wimbledon finals. It would be a TV fiasco.
The good news is that all three survived their first-round matches. Federer got through Alejandro Falla – 5-7, 4-6, 6-4, 7-6 (1), 6-0. Djokovic topped nemesis Olivier Rochus – the only Belgian, man or woman, to lose today – 4-6, 6-2, 3-6, 6-4, 6-2 in the latest ever finish at Wimbledon, and Davydenko eked out a win over Kevin Anderson – 3-6, 6-7 (3), 7-6 (3), 7-5, 9-7. The good news is that those three are still in the tournament, and the men's draw is better for it. The bad news is that all three suddenly have a lot of tennis on their legs. We'll see if that comes back to bite them down the road.
Especially with other top guys struggling much less. Victor Hanescu, the 31st seed, needed five sets to advance (6-7[4], 7-6[3], 6-3, 1-6, 7-5 over Andrey Kuznetsov), but he's the only other seeded player who had a really tough win. Roddick advanced easily - 6-3, 6-2, 6-2 over Rajeev Ram. Lleyton Hewitt needed four sets, but the last three went 6-0, 6-2, 6-2. I'm sure he's not complaining too much. Gael Monfils is through in three as is Tomas Berdych and Albert Montanes. Feliciano Lopez, Philipp Kohlschreiber and Jurgen Melzer needed four sets to get through. But they're all through.
There were a few upsets on the grass today, in some of the more interesting matches. Denis Istomin, a guy who's been around the lower levels for awhile, topped 20th seed Stanislas Wawrinka in five – for my money, that was probably the most surprising upset of the day. Florian Mayer's upset of Marin Cilic was far less surprising – as I wrote before, Mayer is a former quarterfinalist with a big serve – but the style of the loss was surprising, 6-2, 6-4, 7-6(1). If Cilic wants to belong at the top level, hopefully he shows a little more heart than that in the future. Ivan Ljubicic, the 17th seed, was also a Day 1 casualty, going down to Michal Przysiesny of Poland in three. Tough loss for Ljubicic, but at the same time, he's a player who doesn't have the strongest history at the majors.
The best news for Federer may be that his draw is still very kind. If he can get his head back in the game and focus, he won't get a seeded player until at least the Round of 16. He's got time to play himself into the tournament. Maybe this was the kick in the behind he needed to jump-start his season again after a lackluster spring. In the meantime, if you're Lopez or Melzer or Berdych, how are you not thinking you at least have a prayer, now? Federer's close call against Falla may have just let a lot of guys into the tournament. And what about (presumably) Djokovic, Hewitt or Roddick down the road? I have to admit, I never thought the men's draw would be this interesting after the first day. It makes you wonder what tomorrow's gonna bring.

Wimbledon Warm-Ups

2010-06-21T07:55:00.000-07:00

While waiting to see if a couple of the big upsets potentially underway will fully materialize ...
Most of the time, you can get some inkling of what will happen at a Grand Slam by looking at who does well and who doesn't in the "warm-ups." You know, those events in the three or four weeks leading up to a major tournament, where most of the big names show up on the same courts at the same time. Well, Wimbledon isn't exactly like that - at least not all the time.
Mainly, that's because there are so few of them - Queen's Club, Halle, Eastbourne and s'Hertogenbosch for the men and Birmingham, Eastbourne and s'Hertogenbosch for the women. Seven tournaments total. Is it any wonder so many players skip those two weeks all together?
Interestingly, most of the top men don't skip the warm-ups, so by the time Wimbledon rolls around, we've already seen many of them (Federer, Nadal and Roddick, just to name three) on the grass courts. In Federer's case, that loss to Lleyton Hewitt at Halle didn't seem indicative of anything at the time, but all of a sudden, just over a week later, he's just getting ready to go to a fifth set against Alejandro Falla at Wimbledon. Even if he does get through this one, maybe that match will prove more meaningful down the road.
Or it might not. After all, we've only seen him in one warm-up tournament. And he is the six-time champion. He's reached at least the finals here every year since 2003. And losing to Lleyton Hewitt isn't exactly a bad loss, especially not on grass. That's part of the infuriating beauty of the warm-ups. Right now, we don't know if Halle means anything. It's only after Wimbledon that we will be able to assign meaning – if there is any – to that loss.
The women's game is very similar, especially since Venus and Serena Williams, undoubtedly the queens of grass, are among the many players who make a habit of punching their grass-court tickets at Wimbledon – and only Wimbledon – each year. Not considering them, though, it's still hard to know what to make of the warm-ups. Sometimes, they do end up meaning something, sometimes, they mean nothing. There have been years when players who have won warm-ups have flamed out in the first round of Wimbledon. Other times, players who have excelled in the warm-ups have done well. The year she won Wimbledon, in 2004, Maria Sharapova was the winner at Birmingham, and she has remained pretty faithful to that event since. When she reached her first Grand Slam final, at Wimbledon in 2001, Justine Henin was coming off a three-set win over Kim Clijsters at s'Hertogenbosch. In 2006, Henin beat Amelie Mauresmo in the final of Eastbourne. Two weeks later, they played for the title, this time with Mauresmo winning.
So, what can we take from the warm-ups? At this point, not much more than the winners – Hewitt in Halle, Sam Querrey at Queen's Club, Michael Llodra at Eastbourne, Sergiy Stakhovsky at s'Hertogenbosch, Li Na at Birmingham, Elena Makarova at Eastbourne and Henin at s'Hertogenbosch. We know that Hewitt is a former champion at Wimbledon, and Henin is a former finalist, so these results should give them confidence. Llodra is a dangerous opponent on grass as well, and Li Na is coming off a semifinal run in Australia earlier this season, so these wins would seem to suggest they'll at least be names to watch on Wimbledon's lawns.
And what of the losers in the warm-ups? Well, that's a pretty impressive group - certainly more impressive than the winners. Besides the three aforementioned men (You have to borrow a hand to count the number of Wimbledon finals they've reached.), there was Murray, Djokovic, Lopez, Davydenko, Sharapova, Clijsters, Safina, Bartoli and Azarenka, just to name a few. What did playing in and losing those tournaments do for them? Did they get enough matches to feel confident coming into Wimbledon or not?
Stay tuned to find out.

Wimbledon Draw: The Gentlemen

2010-06-18T10:50:00.000-07:00

What a draw! Roger Federer comes in as the top seed but is ranked second, and Rafael Nadal is the second seed, but is ranked first. Like I posted before, in practice, it means nothing, besides bragging rights. That being said, this is going to be a very fascinating tournament. For the entire gentlemen's draw, go here: http://www.wimbledon.org/en_GB/scores/draws/ms/index.html

First Quarter
I'm going to be straightforward - I can't imagine Roger Federer not reaching the quarterfinals. He lucked out with the draw by not getting Robin Soderling or Andy Roddick. In fact, he probably drew the weakest of the 5-8 players - Nikolay Davydenko. I've got Federer playing (and beating) Tomas Berdych in the quarters. Feliciano Lopez is an up-and-down player, but he's probably got the best shot at reaching the Round of 16 out of his section. Davydenko doesn't have a very strong history at Wimbledon, and he's just coming back from injury, besides. He opens against South African Kevin Anderson, and it's not too hard to imagine his Wimbledon ending there. There's a lot of dangerous players, but I think Victor Hanescu, the 31st seed, reaches the fourth round out of Davydenko's section.

Second Quarter
Novak Djokovic is the highest seed, but the draw gods were not kind to him. He starts with Olivier Rochus, who upset him this year at Miami and then could get serve-and-volleyer Taylor Dent, a qualifier, in the second round. His third round should be fairly comfortable, but then he will likely get either Gael Monfils or Lleyton Hewitt in the Round of 16 - not fun.
The bottom part of that quarter features Marin Cilic and Andy Roddick. I like Roddick's draw, but Cilic, like Djokovic, got a brutal draw, starting with former quarterfinalist Florian Mayer in the first round. Either Bernard Tomic or Mardy Fish could come in the second round, and then Ivan Ljubicic in the third. I've got Cilic playing Roddick, but I'm not confident about my pick.

Third Quarter
Quick everybody - when was the last time a British man won Wimbledon? If you answered Fred Perry in 1936, you've seen more than your share of Wimbledon men's coverage over the years. This year, Andy Murray picks up the baton again and tries to end the longest home-country drought in Grand Slam tennis. And really, with this draw, he should at least put himself in position to do so. Murray should reach the Round of 16 without too much trouble, but there, he'll have a tough match, probably against American Sam Querrey. Juan Carlos Ferrero is the 14th seed in Murray's section, but he's got a tough draw and could lose in the first round, to former semifinalist Xavier Malisse.
In the top part of the quarter, Fernando Verdasco is the top seed, but I think the Spaniard overextended himself on the clay, and he might have a tough time here. Julien Benneteau will be a dangerous third-round opponent, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will probably be favored, should Verdasco reach the fourth round. I think Murray comes through the section.

Fourth Quarter
But who will the British favorite play for his chance at the final? Well, for his welcome back to Wimbledon (after a two-year absence), Rafael Nadal probably got the toughest draw of anybody. Kei Nishikori, a wildcard, is his first-round opponent, and then he could get nemesis James Blake in the second round ... for the right to play Ernests Gulbis in the third. After his upset loss in Paris, the pressure should be off Gulbis, which might make him very dangerous. If Nadal is still in after all that, he'll probably play either Mikhail Youzhny, John Isner or Thiemo de Bakker, and that's just to get to the quarters!
Nadal had the bad luck of being drawn against Robin Soderling. These two played a tough grudge match, won by Nadal, in 2006, but that was a lifetime ago in tennis years. Soderling is a much different player, now. I've got him into the quarterfinals, and I don't think he'll have much trouble getting there. If he plays Nadal, I'm looking for the upset.

Fearful Predictions
Again, given the draw some of these guys have, I'm terrified about making these predictions, but I think the men's draw might be a little crazy this year. Here are my fearful picks, starting with the Round of 16:
(1) Roger Federer vs. (22) Feliciano Lopez
(12) Tomas Berdych vs. (31) Victor Hanescu
(3) Novak Djokovic vs. (15) Lleyton Hewitt
(11) Marin Cilic vs. (5) Andy Roddick
(32) Julien Benneteau vs. (10) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
(18) Sam Querrey vs. (4) Andy Murray
(6) Robin Soderling vs. (24) Marcos Baghdatis
(23) John Isner vs. (2) Rafael Nadal

Quarterfinals
Roger Federer vs. Tomas Berdych
Lleyton Hewitt vs. Andy Roddick
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. Andy Murray
Robin Soderling vs. Rafael Nadal

Semifinals
Roger Federer vs. Andy Roddick
Andy Murray vs. Robin Soderling

Finals
Andy Roddick vs. Robin Soderling

Champion: Andy Roddick

Wimbledon Draw: The Ladies

2010-06-18T09:43:00.000-07:00

You know, this draw looks a little like the Roland Garros draw, in that there are two pretty strong quarters and two fairly predictable ones. We might get to see a couple blockbuster Round of 16 matches, but I'm not going to lie – I have a hard time imagining much besides a Serena Williams vs. Venus Williams final on the second Saturday. The entire women's draw can be found here: http://www.wimbledon.org/en_GB/scores/draws/ws/index.html

Here's a few thoughts and a few predictions of what might happen in the next two weeks:
Top Quarter
You know, Serena Williams will probably get through to the finals (and pretty easily, too), but she's got a lot of interesting players in her path, starting with her first-round match against Michelle Larcher de Brito. de Brito has been in a slump for the better part of the past year, but she's a young player, and she's had some good results in the past. Next up could be Andrea Petkovic, a German who is one of the top unseeded players in the draw. Grass-court specialist Tamarine Tanasugarn could be a third-round opponent, or it could be mercurial Lucie Safarova. Most likely, 2004 champion Maria Sharapova will be waiting in one of those five-star Round of 16 matches I mentioned. The bottom part of that quarter features ninth-seeded Na Li, 19th-seeded Svetlana Kuznetsova and seventh-seeded Agnieszka Radwanska. I've got Radwanska coming through to meet Serena in the quarters.

Second Quarter
Here, I really think it's Samantha Stosur's quarter to lose, provided the Roland Garros runner-up can get over the disappointment of losing that final. Caroline Wozniacki is the third-seed here, but her path to looks pretty straightforward. Beyond those two, though. I think we're going to see a few upsets to the lower-seeded players, so don't overlook this quarter.
Assuming Stosur can get over that Roland Garros loss, her route looks pretty nice, too. I've got her and Wozniacki reaching the quarterfinals, and then I think Stosur has too many weapons for her Danish opponent. A couple players to keep an eye on in this quarter: 1995(!) semifinalist Kimiko Date-Krumm, who's got a nice draw, and 1999 semifinalist Mirjana Lucic, who plays 14th-seeded Victoria Azarenka. That should be one of the better first-round matches, and an upset wouldn't be stunning.

Third Quarter
You may as well call this the Belgian quarter - there are four Belgian women in the draw, and they all ended up here. It's Jelena Jankovic who is the highest-seeded player (at fourth), and she's kind of like Serena - she should reach the quarterfinals, but she might have an interesting path there, starting with 2008 junior champion Laura Robson. Robson, 16, of Great Britain has been one of the more hyped young players in the past two years, but her results don't really match that hype. The second-round could feature a grass-court specialist in qualifier and former top 20 player Eleni Daniilidou, and the third could bring Alona Bondarenko, who Jankovic has faced twice in the Slams this year. I could easily imagine a surprise player reaching the Round of 16 in this section. Yanina Wickmayer and Vera Zvonareva are the other seeded players, but neither has been in great form lately. Allison Riske just beat Wickmayer in Birmingham, Melanie Oudin reached the Round of 16 here last year, and Kirsten Flipkens (2003) and Noppawan Lertcheewakarn (2009) are former junior champions here.
In the top part of the quarter, Kim Clijsters is seeded eighth, but she had a tough loss in Eastbourne, so I'm not sure what to make of her chances. She's been very inconsistent in 2010 so far, but I'm expecting her first two rounds to be pretty straightforward. In the third round, she's drawn Maria Kirilenko, who's had a couple upsets over countrywomen (Sharapova in Australia, Kuznetsova at Roland Garros) at the Slams this year. In the Round of 16, she'll most likely play either Nadia Petrova, who upset her in Australia, or Justine Henin, who's in the finals at s'Hertogenbosch this week. Either way, she's probably in for the second potential blockbuster of the fourth round. For my money, this is, undoubtedly, the most interesting quarter.

Fourth Quarter
If she's healthy, I've got Venus Williams going all the way, and there just aren't any players in this quarter who worry me against her. She starts with a clay-court specialist in Rossana de los Rios, and she might not face a top 10 player until the finals. As the draw sits, she's guaranteed not to meet one until the quarterfinals, and that's assuming Francesca Schiavone comes through her section. That, of course, is assuming Schiavone can come back to Earth after her stunning win in Paris, and I don't think she will. I've got her reaching the Round of 16, but it's easy to imagine her going out as early as the first round - she's drawn against Russian (and 2002 junior champion) Vera Dushevina. I think Marion Bartoli goes through to meet Venus.

Fearful Predictions
They're fearful, because I'm not at all certain they'll come true, but I'm going to put myself on the line anyway and tell you what I think is going to happen, starting with the Round of 16.
(1) Serena Williams vs. (16) Maria Sharapova
(9) Na Li. vs. (7) Agnieszka Radwanska
(3) Caroline Wozniacki vs. Petra Kvitova
(18) Aravane Rezai vs. (6) Samantha Stosur
(8) Kim Clijsters vs. (17) Justine Henin
(21) Vera Zvonareva vs. (4) Jelena Jankovic
(5) Francesca Schiavone vs. (11) Marion Bartoli
Jarmila Groth vs. (2) Venus Williams

Quarterfinals
Serena Williams vs. Agnieszka Radwanska
Caroline Wozniacki vs. Samantha Stosur
Justine Henin vs. Jelena Jankovic
Marion Bartoli vs. Venus Williams

Semifinals
Serena Williams vs. Samantha Stosur
Justine Henin vs. Venus Williams

Finals
Serena Williams vs. Venus Williams

Champion: Venus Williams

Wimbledon Seeds: The Gentlemen

2010-06-17T08:14:00.000-07:00

It sounds odd, I know, but Wimbledon's just a little different from the other Slams – that's what they call the men, although the way they compete sometimes, gentlemen doesn't quite seem like the right term. Anyway, here are the Top 32 men, as decided by Wimbledon's seeding formula:

1. Roger FEDERER (SUI)
2. Rafael NADAL (ESP)
3. Novak DJOKOVIC (SRB)
4. Andy MURRAY (GBR)
5. Andy RODDICK (USA)
6. Robin SODERLING (SWE)
7. Nikolay DAVYDENKO (RUS)
8. Fernando VERDASCO (ESP)
9. David FERRER (ESP)
10. Jo-Wilfried TSONGA (FRA)
11. Marin CILIC (CRO)
12. Tomas BERDYCH (CZE)
13. Mikhail YOUZHNY (RUS)
14. Juan Carlos FERRERO (ESP)
15. Lleyton HEWITT (AUS)
16. Jurgen MELZER (AUT)
17. Ivan LJUBICIC (CRO)
18. Sam QUERREY (USA)
19. Nicolas ALMAGRO (ESP)
20. Stanislas WAWRINKA (SUI)
21. Gael MONFILS (FRA)
22. Radek STEPANEK (CZE)
23. Feliciano LOPEZ (ESP)
24. John ISNER (USA)
25. Ivo KARLOVIC (CRO)
26. Marcos BAGHDATIS (CYP)
27. Thomaz BELLUCCI (BRA)
28. Gilles SIMON (FRA)
29. Ernests GULBIS (LAT)
30. Albert MONTANES (ESP)
31. Philipp KOHLSCHREIBER (GER)
32. Tommy ROBREDO (ESP)

No, that's not a mistake – missing Wimbledon last year probably cost Rafael Nadal the No. 1 seed this year. In practice, there's really no difference, though. He'll still get drawn against Murray or Djokovic in the semis, a 5-8 player in the quarters, 13-16 in the Round of 16 and 25-32 in the third round. Mainly, it's an issue of bragging rights, and Federer gets them for at least one more Slam this year.
That top four is getting pretty familiar, isn't it? No doubt, we all thought, less than a year ago, that Juan Martin del Potro would be crashing the party, but his wrist has had something to say about that. So we continue on with Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and Murray at the top. It's certainly easy enough to imagine these four in the semis, but there are a lot of dangerous guys who could do their share of damage.
Starting with the guy at No. 5, last year's runner-up, Andy Roddick. Roddick was perilously close to winning last year but came up just short – 16-14 in the fifth. At No. 6, we have the now-two-time Roland Garros runner-up, Robin Soderling, who almost took Nadal out on grass in 2007. With his big game, I expect better from him on the faster surfaces. We'll see what he can do here.
Beyond that group, we have a mixed bag of players' results. No. 10, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga seems to have settled in as a Round of 16, quarterfinal-level player, which is too bad. He's got the talent to go farther, and he's shown it. The three guys behind him, Cilic, Berdych and Youzhny all have the potential to knock off some of the top guys ... or Berdych or Youzhny could flame out in the first round. Former champion Lleyton Hewitt caused a stir when he beat Federer in Halle last week, but it's hard to imagine him playing the final weekend. Jurgen Melzer is in completely new territory as the No. 16 seed. We'll see how he handles the expectations.
Querrey could out-perform his seeding on the grass. Monfils absolutely should. He's another guy who's too talented to be where he is, although Roland Garros hurt his ranking in a big way. Stepanek and Lopez have had some good results on grass, and Isner and Karlovic are capable of runs due to their serves alone. Baghdatis and Gulbis are both players whose talent doesn't match their results. With pressure off, could one of them make a run? And what about Thomaz Bellucci of Brazil? I was impressed that he lived up to expectations in Paris. Now, he has to show that he can match those results on other surfaces.
Back with more later.

Wimbledon Seeds: The Women

2010-06-17T07:32:00.000-07:00

Really, at Wimbledon, they're called "Ladies," but no less, here are the top 32 women according to the Wimbledon seeding committee:
1. Serena WILLIAMS (USA)
2. Venus WILLIAMS (USA)
3. Caroline WOZNIACKI (DEN)
4. Jelena JANKOVIC (SRB)
5. Francesca SCHIAVONE (ITA)
6. Samantha STOSUR (AUS)
7. Agnieszka RADWANSKA (POL)
8. Kim CLIJSTERS (BEL)
9. Na LI (CHN)
10. Flavia PENNETTA (ITA)
11. Marion BARTOLI (FRA)
12. Nadia PETROVA (RUS)
13. Shahar PEER (ISR) [13] 13
14. Victoria AZARENKA (BLR)
15. Yanina WICKMAYER (BEL)
16. Maria SHARAPOVA (RUS)
17. Justine HENIN (BEL)
18. Aravane REZAI (FRA)
19. Svetlana KUZNETSOVA (RUS)
20. Dinara SAFINA (RUS)
21. Vera ZVONAREVA (RUS)
22. Maria Jose MARTINEZ SANCHEZ (ESP)
23. Jie ZHENG (CHN)
24. Daniela HANTUCHOVA (SVK)
25. Lucie SAFAROVA (CZE)
26. Alisa KLEYBANOVA (RUS)
27. Maria KIRILENKO (RUS)
28. Alona BONDARENKO (UKR)
29. Anastasia PAVLYUCHENKOVA (RUS)
30. Yaroslava SHVEDOVA (KAZ)
31. Alexandra DULGHERU (ROU)
32. Sara ERRANI (ITA)

Going down the list, there are a few things worth noting. First of all, Venus and Serena Williams should enjoy knowing they won't have to worry about each other until the final weekend. That's the advantage of being ranked first and second. I know they have a formula for figuring these things, but raise your hand if you really believe Wozniacki is the player with the third best chance of winning this tournament. Jankovic at fourth? Schiavone at fifth? Yeah, me neither. I could see Stosur out-performing her seeding (sixth). I started out thinking the same of Clijsters, but she just went down to Victoria Azarenka in Eastbourne, so maybe not. Bartoli, at 11th, is a former finalist, although she hasn't come close to replicating that result. It's very odd to see Sharapova, Henin, Kuznetsova and Safina so close to each other – at 16, 17, 19 and 20, respectively. The rankings say it right now, but no way any of those four should be ranked so low. Hopefully, they move up by the end of the year. Like at Roland Garros, it will be interesting to see who loses the Justine Henin sweepstakes. Here's to hoping it's not Sharapova. That match should never be a third round at a Grand Slam.
As for the rest of the seeded women, there's not a ton to say. Alexandra Dulgheru's won a few matches at s'Hertogenbosch. Kirilenko lost early at that same event, but she's reached the quarterfinals and the Round of 16 at her past two Slams; she might be one to watch at Wimbledon. Daniela Hantuchova is a former quarterfinalist and Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez has a good game for the surface. Zheng is a former semifinalist (and held a set point against Serena Williams in that match). Still, it's hard to imagine anyone outside the top 20 holding the trophy in two weeks' time. Of course, it was hard to imagine Schiavone holding up the winners' trophy in Paris, too.
Back later with thoughts on the men.

Better Late Than Never

2010-06-17T06:38:00.000-07:00

Sorry I missed out on the Roland Garros finals. I've been away from home so much that I haven't gotten to post, and I'll admit to missing both finals, but here's a couple thoughts.
First of all, the men's final. I thought this could be a very competitive match, but Rafael Nadal's 6-4, 6-2, 6-4 win looks pretty comprehensive. I have to admit, I didn't expect Robin Soderling to defend his points from last year, but good for him for getting another big win, and even more credit to him for following it up, like he did last year. I'm curious to see, now, if he can bet Nadal in Paris, and if he can beat Federer in Paris, is there a chance he can beat them both and maybe win the title sometime? It certainly seems like it should be possible. Hopefully, Soderling can also start replicating his results on the faster surfaces. He's got the game to be way better than he is on hard courts and grass.
For Nadal, well, there's all kinds of positives for him coming out of this match. Perhaps first of all, he delivered a beating to a player he clearly feels some animosity against. (The feelings seem to be mutual.) He comes out of Paris with the No. 1 ranking, something I didn't think was possible at the start of the event. And he has nothing to defend at Wimbledon. In the best-case scenario for Nadal, he could come out of Wimbledon over 4,000 points ahead of Federer. (He's 295 points in front as of today.) And Federer's got a lot more to defend the rest of this year. Short story even shorter, if Nadal wins Wimbledon, he's going to be very tough to catch this year. The two biggest men's tournaments left after Wimbledon are the U.S. Open and the World Tour Finals. Nadal was a semifinalist at the U.S. Open, and he was abysmal at the WTF. Add that to Wimbledon, and he has all kinds of chances to stretch his lead.
And he should be bursting with confidence. After going so long, almost a year, without a title of any kind, Nadal suddenly reeled off four in a row. His clay-court season can only help him going into the rest of this year.
The women's tournament was wild from the start, so why not save the biggest surprise for the very end? No doubt, Francesca Schiavone is a talented player. Indisputably, her best surface is clay. However, there's no way I would have had her winning her first Grand Slam singles title shortly before her 30th birthday in Paris. That being said, good for her. When she first came on the scene, Schiavone was considered a very good talent, but I never felt she really lived up to that. Two weeks ago in Paris, she did.
So what's the difference between playing to win and playing not to lose? Probably what happened in the women's final. Samantha Stosur got through a murderer's row of players – Justine Henin in the Round of 16, Serena Williams in the quarterfinals and Jelena Jankovic in the semis. She was given a less-than-elite opponent in the finals, and she stumbled at that last hurdle. Schiavone is a very passionate player, and in the second-set tiebreaker, from 2-2, it sounds like Schiavone is the one who went for her shots. The final result: 6-4, 7-6 (2). No doubt, Stosur should be disappointed she didn't win this one, but hopefully it doesn't devastate her. She's looking good in her pre-event warm-up in Eastbourne, but I think we'll get a better idea of how she's handling this disappointment at Wimbledon.

A Stroll Around the Grounds

2010-06-04T07:57:00.000-07:00

While waiting on the women's final and to find out who Robin Soderling gets to play in the men's singles final ...
Yes, it is finals weekend, but that doesn't just mean singles. Between the juniors, seniors and wheelchair tennis, there is all kinds of action going on at Roland Garros during this time of the week. Here are a few observations:
• Quick - who's the most successful women's tennis player today? Serena Williams? No. Venus Williams? Try again. Justine Henin? Maria Sharapova? Jelena Jankovic? Wrong.
The correct answer would be Esther Vergeer of the Netherlands, who won the wheelchair women's event – 6-0, 6-0 over compatriot Sharon Walraven. Now, I don't know too much about wheelchair tennis, but Vergeer, through her sheer dominance, has given the event some exposure in the mainstream press. This is now her 15th Grand Slam singles title in the wheelchair event. She has another 14 titles in doubles. Over the course of her tennis career, Vergeer has a singles record of 582-25, has only lost one match since March 31, 2001 and is currently on a 383 match winning streak. Imagine the attention able-bodied WTA players would receive if one of them could win over 95 percent of her matches.
• The junior events are winding down. In the boys' event, Agustin Velotti of Argentina is playing Andrea Collarini of the United States (Yes - the United States!). Collarini apparently grew up and spent his formative years in Argentina, but it's still nice to see a young American player doing well on clay. Collarini is currently ranked 669th in the ATP rankings – it will be interesting to see how he develops. Velotti is also in the finals of the boys' doubles event, which features four players from South America – Velotti and Facundo Arguello are playing Duilio Beretta of Peru and Roberto Quiroz of Ecuador.
In the girls' event, we get a little bit of the international taste of the sport – Elina Svitolina of Ukraine will be playing Ons Jabeur of Tunisia in the final. Both are only 15-years-old. Svitolina is ranked 1,096 in the WTA rankings, and Jabeur is 724. It seems safe to assume that both are going to be moving up in the not-too-distant future.
The girls' doubles features eight players from six nations – spread out over three continents. Timea Babos of Hungary and Sloane Stephens of the U.S. are in the finals as of this writing. I got to see Stephens playing Vera Zvonareva in Indian Wells earlier this year. It doesn't seem likely that she'll be an all-time great player, but she looks like a solid one with a good game. She should be part of the future of U.S. women's tennis once Venus and Serena Williams move on.
• There's plenty of action in the doubles as well. In the mixed doubles, Katarina Srebotnik and Nenad Zimonjic beat Yaroslava Shvedova and Julian Knowle in a tight three-set match. Srebotnik is a player who came along at about the same time as Kim Clijsters, Jelena Dokic and Justine Henin. She reached 20th in the singles rankings but has made a nice living for herself in doubles, winning four mixed doubles Slams there. This has been a nice event for Srebotnik, as she was also runner-up in women's doubles. Zimonjic has won four mixed doubles titles and two men's doubles titles at the Slams. He and Srebotnik also won Roland Garros together in 2006, but they've been runners-up three other times, making them one of the more successful mixed doubles pairings in recent years.
• Venus and Serena Williams, took the women's doubles final 6-2, 6-3. For all their success in singles, this is the 12th Grand Slam titles for Venus and Serena in doubles – and it's their fourth consecutive Slam. Venus and Serena could very well be the first players to win THE Grand Slam in doubles since 1999, when Martina Hingis accomplished it with two different partners. This final was played on Court Suzanne Lenglen, but you can pretty well guarantee that if Venus and Serena are going for the Slam at the U.S. Open, that final will be on Arthur Ashe Stadium.
• In the men's doubles event, Zimonjic and his partner, Daniel Nestor, will be playing Leander Paes and Lukas Dlouhy for the title. This result comes on the heels of a win over Mike and Bob Bryan at the Australian Open earlier this season. Don't look now, but Nestor and Zimonjic might also have a chance at THE Grand Slam this season.
More on the singles finals later.

An Upside-Down Tournament

2010-06-03T07:05:00.000-07:00

Sorry for the long break – my day job took me away from the blog.
Whew, what a week! Things usually heat up in the second week of a Grand Slam, but who knew they would reach this level? And we’re barely into the semifinals!
Here’s a few thoughts on what we’ve seen this week:
• Where did Samantha Stosur come from? Coming into Roland Garros, my impression was that she was turning into a solid player who would beat the players she was supposed to beat but stumble against the elite, or “better” players. And then she went out and beat Justine Henin and Serena Williams back-to-back – in matches that went 6-4 and 8-6 in the third. Stosur didn’t just beat Henin and Serena; she out-toughed them. If she doesn’t have a mental letdown, she has to be considered a legitimate contender.
• I’m shamelessly taking this line from the TV coverage I’ve watched, but apparently, no one beats Robin Soderling 13 times in a row – not even if you’re Roger Federer. Soderling was a finalist last year, but this result might be even more stunning that Stosur’s. Everyone knew Federer’s streak of 23 consecutive Grand Slam semifinals was going to end, but in four sets against a player he appeared so comfortable against? Wow.
• Elena Dementieva and Jelena Jankovic are currently two of the best women’s players who have never won a Grand Slam singles title. Now, they’ve reached the semifinals and do not have to worry about Serena Williams, Venus Williams, Justine Henin, Maria Sharapova or Kim Clijsters. We know Dementieva will come away from this situation without a win, and I can imagine the same thing happening to Jankovic.
• If you’d told me two weeks ago that the Roland Garros semifinals would have featured four women who’d never won a Slam, three men who’d never won a Slam and Rafael Nadal, I’d have thought you were crazy – and I had five Slamless players in my semifinals before play started!
• Don’t look now, but if Rafael Nadal wins Roland Garros, he’ll be No. 1 in the world – over a Roger Federer who has won Wimbledon and the Australian Open and been runner-up at the U.S. Open. It just goes to show that those week-in, week-out tournaments do matter sometimes. That being said, Nadal’s win here can’t be considered a done deal, not with Soderling/Berdych possibly waiting for him in the finals.
• How surprising is Henin’s result in Paris? It probably depends on whether or not you believed her when she said 2010 would be a year of transition. Her season has been made all the more complicated by injury, illness and personal distractions. Read here for more: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/more-sports/nothings-ever-simple-with-henin/article1580685/ Now, expectations on her should drop considerably.
• Over the course of this event, I’ve made three fearless predictions and three fearful ones. Let’s just say they’re fearful for a reason – only one of them came true. Of course, only one of my fearless predictions came true as well – both involved Federer.
• So, how about that Jurgen Melzer? This guy has got to be one of my favorite underdogs in a long time. He knocks off an in-form David Ferrer (maybe the biggest upset this side of Soderling/Federer), gets a qualifier to get to the quarterfinals and then comes back from two sets down to beat Novak Djokovic. On the other hand, if you’re Djokovic, how do you not close out the No. 22 seed when you’re two sets up – and in a fourth-set tie-breaker?
• I’ve said before, I think the women’s winner will come out of the top quarter – as I write this, Stosur has won the first set against Jankovic, and might play Schiavone in the final. If Stosur does win the event, it will be one of the few things I’ve been right about this tournament.
Back later.

Women's Round of 16 Analysis

2010-05-30T17:20:00.001-07:00

God bless Tennis Channel – if it weren’t for them, tennis fans like me would be lost. So far, I’ve been able to see bits and pieces of all four women’s Round of 16 matches, and it paints a fascinating idea of who’s looking good to do what.
The match I saw the least of was Maria Kirilenko vs. Fracesca Schiavone. Schiavone had a favorable record – head-to-head and in Grand Slams – coming in, but this really looked like a missed opportunity for Kirilenko. From the few games I saw, she spent 90 percent of the time in a winning position but too many times, she couldn’t put away the last shot. Then, at 4-5 in both sets, Schiavone was just a little better. And now, she’s in the quarterfinals of a Grand Slam for the third time in her career.
Now Schiavone gets to play Caroline Wozniacki for a shot at her first Grand Slam semifinal. The third seed knocked off Flavia Pennetta 7-6 (5), 6-7 (4), 6-2 in the longest women’s match of the day.
I watched Wozniacki for the first time during the U.S. Open last year, a little bit in the semis, but mostly in the finals. Watching her today, I admit to being very disappointed. I thought I remembered Wozniacki being more offensive than this. It’s not just that she plays so much defense; it’s that she so rarely even tried to get on offense, to say nothing of going for winners. That might have worked against Pennetta, but it will be interesting to see what she does against Schiavone and possibly in the semis. It’s hard to imagine Wozniacki lifting a trophy on the final weekend if she’s going to continue playing this way. Eventually, she’ll have to play a little offense.
If Pennetta had gone for a little more early on against Wozniacki – she served for the first set – we would be talking about an all-Italian quarterfinal. No doubt about it, fortune favors the brave, and Pennetta wasn’t brave enough to advance.
In the bottom quarter, Elena Dementieva will be playing Nadia Petrova. Dementieva’s come through a pretty soft draw, but at this point, I can’t honestly say I’m blown away by her play. She had a close match against Alexandra Wozniak and hardly looked brilliant against qualifier Chanelle Scheepers. I had her penciled into the finals before the tournament, but she’s going to have to step up if she wants to duplicate her 2004 result.
Petrova on the other had, was coming off a barn-burner against Aravane Rezai, and it would have been easy for her to have a letdown against Venus Williams. Instead, she continued to roll, taking the match 6-4, 6-3. Now, Petrova has a few factors acting in her favor here – she has a nice head of steam behind her, she’s attacking well and she’s reached the semifinals here twice before. It’s not at all impossible to imagine her in the finals right now. Might she be ready to take that next step?

Fearless prediction from today’s play: Roger Federer will qualify for his ninth straight Grand Slam final.
Fearful prediction: The winner of Dementieva/Petrova reaches the women’s final – both have the offense to get through. Not only that, but both have the talent to win the title.

Men's Round of 16 Action

2010-05-30T17:18:00.001-07:00

Since when did the women become more interesting than the men? Just a few months ago in Australia, there was so much excitement about Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Juan Martin Del Potro, Andy Roddick and Nikolay Davydenko fighting it out in the late rounds of tournaments. Coming into the Australian Open, the women had Serena Williams, Kim Clijsters and Justin Henin coming back and … well, not much more. The women had a lot of very nice players, but not many you’d pick to win a Grand Slam title.
Now, all of sudden, it feels like we’re on an inevitable march towards Federer vs. Nadal next Sunday. The only player I can imagine having any kind of say about that is Tomas Berdych, who might play Federer in the semifinals. Berdych has been a chronic underachiever in the past, but this season, he seems to be turning that alone. The first step came earlier this year, at Indian Wells, but his Round of 16 victory, 6-4, 7-5, 6-3, might be another turning point – assuming Berdych gets through his quarterfinal, against Mikhail Youzhny. Youzhny, the 11th seed, is also a dangerous talent, and in his Round of 16, he took out Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who retired after the first set with a leg injury.
Meanwhile, in the top half of the draw, we get a rematch of last year’s final, with Federer playing Robin Soderling. Soderling did well to get through Albert Montanes in the third round, and he stayed with a game Marin Cilic through two sets and then ran away with the match in the third. Federer got a little bit of a test against German Julian Reister in the third round and also in the second set of his Round of 16 match-up, against compatriot Stanislas Wawrinka. The first and third sets of that match went easily in his favor, and it’s hard to imagine him not getting through Soderling. No doubt, the Swede will give Federer a stiffer test than he’s had so far, but Federer should still get through that one –likely without losing a set. He’s just a different player in best-of-five than he is in best-of-three.
Tomorrow, the men finish their Round of 16. Again, there’s just not much to say here. I fully expect Melzer, Djokovic and Nadal to get through. Let’s give some credit to their opponents, though. Bellucci is a younger player who’s been steadily improving, and there were expectations for him here. To have expectations is one thing; to live up to them is something completely different. Teimuraz Gabashvili and Robby Ginepri are surprises to be in the tournament at this point – Gabashvili as a qualifier and Ginepri as the last man in the main draw. Both have far exceeded expectations, although their runs seem likely to end here.
The most interesting Round of 16 match by far, will be Fernando Verdasco vs. Nicolas Almagro. Both men have looked good on clay this year, both have been a little up-and-down here, and both had the terrible luck of being drawn in Nadal’s quarter – and against each other. Almagro should be a little fresher, and I’m giving him a slight edge for that reason. I don’t expect either of them to give Nadal much trouble, though.
It seems that Djokovic will be the likely semifinal opponent for Nadal. These two haven’t played on clay this year, and no doubt, Djokovic is very capable on the surface. The way this clay-court season has gone, though, a win over Nadal would be an enormous upset. Make no mistake about that.

A Close Look at the Top Half of the Women's Draw

2010-05-30T17:17:00.001-07:00

I’m not going to lie to you – at 0-2, 0-40, in the third, I was sure the third round of Roland Garros was almost done. Maria Sharapova was going to cruise to victory and get ready for Samantha Stosur in the Round of 16. Then Justine Henin showed up to play.
I guess I should have known better. Henin’s made a career of snatching victory from the jaws of defeat. Just ask Lindsay Davenport, Jennifer Capriati, Anastasia Myskina, Svetlana Kuznetsova, Serena Williams, Kim Clijsters and countless lesser players. Henin is a fan of skydiving, and she tends to take that daredevil attitude onto the tennis court with her.
But when Henin won that 0-40 point, you could already feel the momentum swinging. A service winner and a successful foray to net later, the game was at deuce. Sharapova earned one more point for the two-break lead, but Henin again came to net, and two points later, she stepped back from the brink. When the fans saw that Henin was going to make a match of it, they got behind her, and that gave her more of a lift.
From 1-2, Henin reeled of three straight games and looked firmly in control at 4-2, 40-15. From there, she lost four straight points, dropping serve on a double fault. Sharapova upped her level in that game, and it looked like she was making one last run at the match. If she could only hold serve, the momentum would be back on her side, and she’d give Henin plenty to think about at 4-4.
It never came to that. After Sharapova jumped ahead 30-0, Henin came back, broke in a close game, and then served out the match. Her only miscue came at 5-3, 40-0, when she hit a double fault, but a near-winner on the next point clinched the 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 victory.
Now, Henin joins Samantha Stosur and Shahar Peer – all three have been top players on clay this year – and Serena Williams, who’s also been solid, in the Round of 16. Really, it’s possible to imagine any of the four of them in the semis, especially if Williams is still a little under the weather. I think she’ll find a way to get through Peer, but if that’s a long match, she’ll have a tough quarterfinal.
As for Henin and Stosur, it’s hard to know what to expect. The only history these two have came earlier this year, in Stuttgart, when Henin won that final 6-4, 2-6, 6-1. This will be her fifth consecutive day on the competitive court. Today, she only played one set, and two days ago, it was just four games, but it’s got to be mentally draining, and she probably won’t want to mess around. Stosur should be pretty confident. Even with a set lost, she’s dropped just 18 games in the tournament – and she’s stayed on schedule, so she should be fresher. Henin’s pedigree is hard to argue with though. I think she’ll win that one for the chance to play Williams.
The heavy favorite to be waiting in the semifinals is Jelena Jankovic – it’s been that way since the third round. Jankovic takes on the only other seeded player in her quarter, No. 23 Daniela Hantuchova, for the right to play Jarmila Groth or Yaroslava Shvedova. That’s a pretty nice match at this point in a Grand Slam – if you can get it.
In the long run, though, it’s easy to imagine Jankovic’s draw coming back to hurt her. If she gets to the semis, she’s going to be facing a tough opponent. She seems to lack confidence against Henin, and no doubt, Williams will be ready for her – they went to a third-set tiebreaker when they played in Rome. Her odds against Stosur or Peer are better, but if one of them gets through, no doubt they’ll be brimming with confidence.
There’s still a lot of great tennis to be played in the top half of the draw. Stay tuned to see what happens.

Day 7 and Still Behind

2010-05-29T12:16:00.001-07:00

You really have to wonder what Roland Garros organizers are thinking this year. The questionable decisions started early, when two of their own players, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Richard Gasquet, requested later starts and were denied. Gasquet lost his first round match to Andy Murray, and Tsonga nearly did, to Daniel Brands of Germany. Later a couple of matches - Gael Monfils vs. Fabio Fognini and Nadia Petrova vs. Aravane Rezai - were not suspended when they should have been. Now, organizers put THE match of the third round, Maria Sharapova vs. Justine Henin on court last, which was bad enough before Petrova vs. Rezai was suspended. Now, those two have to come back tomorrow to play one set and then play a rested Samantha Stosur Monday. The winner of that match will have played five days in a row - at a Grand Slam, in the toughest quarter of the women's draw. Between this match and Serena Williams' illness, Stosur's odds of getting to the quarters and maybe even further are suddenly looking much better.
Meanwhile, the third quarter of the men's draw, one of the most wide-open quarters, suddenly got much less wide-open Saturday. David Ferrer losing was a stunner; Andy Roddick, a little less so. Roddick should be kicking himself. I know he hasn't had any matches on clay this year, but to lose in straight sets to a qualifier and then to watch the toughest player in his section go out? The tennis gods were kind to him, and he didn't take advantage.
That quarter should now belong to Novak Djokovic. The third seed now gets to play Robby Ginepri, one of the luckiest men in the draw, for the right to play the winner of Melzer/Gabashvili to get to the semis. Ginepri shouldn't have been anywhere near the main draw, but a massive number of withdrawals on the men's side got him in automatically, and Saturday, he out-toughed Juan Carlos Ferrero. Good for him for taking advantage of his opportunity.
Meanwhile, in the bottom quarter, we've got Nadal vs. Bellucci and Almagro vs. Verdasco. I've liked Nadal the whole way, but I've been going back and forth on Almagro/Verdasco. Right now, I'm leaning slightly towards Almagro - he's looked good since a tough first round - but I don't think Verdasco's going to roll over easily.
Meanwhile, on the women's side, who knows what to expect? Serena was looking great until the second set of her match against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. Now, if she is under the weather, is she going to recover in time to be able to beat Peer, who's been one of the better clay-court players this spring? Who's going to come through the Sharapova/Henin match now? Since going down 0-4 in the first, Sharapova looked pretty good, and once she survived those three break points at 3-3, she rolled through the rest of the second. Henin, on the other side, looked brilliant in the first four games, but after that, it seemed she lost focus in the conditions. Was it really a good idea for Sharapova to want to stop when the momentum so clearly on her side? Well, if nothing else, she should go to bed tonight thinking she has a real chance tomorrow.
The way the upsets have fallen, Jelena Jankovic and Caroline Wozniacki suddenly have to love their odds of being around late next week. For Venus Williams, the real tournament starts now - she's got former semifinalist Nadia Petrova up next for the right to play former finalist Elena Dementieva in the quarters - probably. Dementieva's had a nice draw, but she's been inconsistent, and her opponent, Chanelle Scheepers, has won six matches on the clay. Still, it's hard to imagine Dementieva not coming through there.
I'll be back with more tomorrow.

Tennis' Big Day

2010-05-28T14:52:00.000-07:00

It doesn't happen very often, but every once in awhile, tennis gives us a gem of the day, most often when nature demands it. Today was no different.
The good news is that the schedule is mostly back on track – there are only two third round matches of those originally-scheduled to day to be played tomorrow, and neither should take too long to finish. Mikhail Youzhny is up a break in the fourth set of his match against Viktor Troicki, and Aravane Rezai and Nadia Petrova are at 7-7 in the third set of their match. Both players can probably look forward to a restless night of sleep, after they blew match points, break points and leads left, right and center throughout the match. And the winner gets a very well-rested Venus Williams in the Round of 16. It should make for interesting action.
The match I thought might be interesting that ended up being one of the biggest blowouts of the day was Tomas Berdych's win over John Isner. Isner lived up to his seed – a good performance on that front, but he's still got plenty of work to do if he's going to turn into one of the big guns on clay.
Part of me says he's broken my heart before, but Berdych is looking like a fair bet to reach the semis. He's well-rested, he's playing well, and all of the remaining players on his schedule have much more tennis than he does under their belts. If he can keep his head – no sure thing, I'll admit – watch out.
I thought the men had some of the more interesting matches today, but most of tomorrow's look pretty straightforward. Ljubicic vs. Bellucci may be the most interesting one. Hewitt vs. Nadal also stands out, if for nothing more than name value.
The women have much more going for them tomorrow. Shahar Peer vs. Marion Bartoli should be interesting. Peer lost the first set, but then came back and dominated Bethanie Mattek-Sands 3-6, 6-0, 6-1 in their second round. Bartoli struggled against compatriot Olivia Sanchez, but she will have the home-court crowd behind her. Also keep an eye on Jankovic vs. Bondarenko, a chance for Jankovic to get revenge for her upset loss in Australia, and Hantuchova vs. Wickmayer. Both could be good matches.
By far, the biggest match of the day will be Maria Sharapova vs. Justine Henin, in the first highly-anticipated match in the top quarter. Sharapova is now on a seven-match winning streak on clay and Henin is Henin. Neither has looked brilliant in their first two matches. I picked Henin at the start of the tournament, and I'm going to stick with her in this one.
(Mostly) Fearless prediction, based on what I've seen so far: Henin's streak of sets won in Paris will end this year. Fearful prediction: Her streak of matches at Roland Garros will not.

Blockbuster Day Tomorrow!

2010-05-27T14:41:00.000-07:00

Spare a thought for Fabio Fognini, Andy Murray and John Isner. Those guys were on court late tonight (Paris time) and have to get right back out there for third-round matches tomorrow – assuming the weather cooperates. Marcos Baghdatis will also be hitting the court for the third day in a row, but he only had to play a 6-2 set today and will be getting Murray, who played two-and-a-half sets and ended much later in the day. Baghdatis might have a bit of an advantage there.
Tomorrow should be a great day, tennis-wise. There are currently 87 men's and women's players left in the tournament and 78 of them will be hoping to get their second/third round matches in. A few of them will probably be in for short days – Maria Sharapova and Justine Henin are both in the second set of their matches and Marion Bartoli had just gotten back on serve (she had been down 2-5) when play was suspended.
Crisis Averted: The second quarter of the women's draw didn't blow up – Jelena Jankovic did survive against Kaia Kanepi, 6-4 in the third. Now, she gets a possible revenge match against Alona Bondarenko, who knocked her out of the Australian Open. I like Jankovic in that one. Meanwhile, in that same quarter, Jarmila Groth, Anastasia Rodionova, Alisa Kleybanova or Yaroslava Shvedova is going to be a Grand Slam quarterfinalist. Wow.
A few matches that worth checking out tomorrow: Montanes vs. Soderling, Murray vs. Baghdatis and Isner vs. Berdych on the men's side and Dulgheru vs. Wozniacki, Rezai vs. Petrova and Cibulkova vs. Venus Williams on the women's side.
I'll leave with a fearful and a fearless prediction based on what's happened so far. Fearful prediction: the winner of Isner/Berdych gets to the quarters. Fearless prediction: Federer breaks the record for most weeks at No. 1 – his path to the semis has gotten much easier these first five days in Paris. The tennis gods must love that man.

Rain, Rain Go Away

2010-05-27T09:09:00.000-07:00

The newest entrant into the Roland Garros draw this year: Mother Nature, and although she won't be holding up a trophy on the final weekend, the players who do win may want to mention her in their acceptance speeches. It is getting late in the day, Paris time, and Day 4 isn't done yet (to say nothing of Day 5!). There are still four men's matches and one women's match to be completed, and only one of them could be completed fairly quickly – Gael Monfils and Fabio Fognini are tied at 5-5 in the fifth, and they'll go on as soon as Jelena Jankovic and Kaia Kanepi complete their third set. You know, I wrote a couple days ago that Kanepi was one of the tougher second-round matches, and sometimes it's nice to be proven right, especially since I'm not getting much right with the women's draw this year.
Anyway, in Day 5 action so far, we have two players in the third round of the women's draw – Jarmila Groth and Alisa Kleybanova, both of whom lost three games. Groth topped Kimiko Date-Krumm and Kleybanova trashed Ana Ivanovic. That's too bad for Ivanovic. She really looked like she was turning her season around this spring, and she was in a section of the draw, where she could have done some real damage.
Now, that entire quarter of the draw is threatening to blow up. Jankovic is in trouble against Kanepi, Vera Zvonareva is down a set and a break to Anastasia Rodionova and Agnieszka Radwanska is almost out against Yaroslava Shvedova. Who knows what's going to happen there?
There's not much to say about the men's draw right now. It doesn't seem likely that we'll get many of their results in today. As I write this, Andy Roddick has split the first two sets of his match against Blaz Kavcic, so they'll be out there for a little while longer. The winner of that match is very likely to play Teimuraz Gabashvili, who is up two sets and a break. He could get off-court quickly once they start playing. Andy Murray and John Isner are getting ready to play again, and Marcos Baghdatis just started the fourth set of his match – he's up two sets to one.
I'll be back with more later.

First-round Analysis: The Women

2010-05-25T17:01:00.000-07:00

The circus that is the women's draw held surprisingly to form in the first round of Roland Garros. Only three seeded players failed to make it through, although all three upsets were biggies – Dinara Safina is out, losing 7-5 in the third to Kimiko Date-Krumm. It's a great win for Date-Krumm, but a horrible loss for Safina, who may have to kiss her Top 20 ranking goodbye before it's all said and done. If Svetlana Kuznetsova can win her second-round match, she'll knock Safina down to 19th, with Zvonareva, Rezai and Henin all within 100 points of her. If Zvonareva reaches the third round and either Henin or Rezai reaches the Round of 16, that will be enough to do it. That's a long way to fall for the player who was No. 1 at this tournament last year.
Also out are Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez and Victoria Azarenka. Martinez Sanchez's loss came out of nowhere – straight sets to Akgul Amanmuradova. Azarenka's was less so – she went down to Gisela Dulko, a player who's got a pretty impressive list of upsets to her name. It was the score of the loss, 6-1, 6-2, that was shocking.
Svetlana Kuznetsova was a pleasant surprise. She started horribly against Sorana Cirstea, a player I picked for the upset but then ended excellently. We'll see what the future holds for the defending champion. She's in the least predictable quarter, but if she can get through, she's the most accomplished clay-courter in the bottom half. I'm not sold on her yet, but that first round was a great start.
Also in that quarter was Caroline Wozniacki, who also got off to a strong start after a horrid spring. She's got a brutal draw to get through before we can start talking seriously about her, but she's taken the first step.
There's not much to write home about in the bottom quarter, in this round. With Sanchez and Azarenka out, Dementieva's path to the quarters opened up nicely. Meanwhile, we could be in for a couple barnburners - Venus Williams vs. Dominika Cibulkova and Nadia Petrova vs. Aravane Rezai in the third round in the bottom section.
The top half is still, by far, the tougher half of the draw. Jelena Jankovic has to be the favorite to come out of her quarter, but she probably has one of the tougher second-round matches, against Kaia Kanepi - the same Kaia Kanepi who beat Justine Henin in Fed Cup a few weeks ago. Further down the road, she could have a revenge match against Alona Bondarenko, who topped her in Australia. Her Round of 16 shouldn't be too much trouble, and then just about anybody could come out of that bottom section for the quarters.
The biggest ring in the women's circus continues to be the top quarter. Serena Williams got a tough first set, but an easy second from Stefanie Voegele. It's still hard to see her not coming out of her section. Shahar Peer looked good and had a strong spring, but Marion Bartoli could be a tough Round of 16.
THE match of the third round could be Maria Sharapova vs. Justine Henin. Sharapova had a solid win over compatriot Ksenia Pervak and now gets Belgian Kirsten Flipkens. Watch that match if you get a chance. Flipkens is fun to watch if she's playing well - she'll show Sharapova something different and might actually be a nice warm-up for a possible Henin match.
In my pre-tournament prediction, I picked Henin to win. Mainly, that was because she has so much more margin for error in her game on this surface than the other women do. I don't think she has to be at her best to win - just reasonably close to it. Henin's first-round match was quintessential Justine Henin - not brilliant but good enough in the first set. She took a mental break after going up 2-0 in the second, but then finished strongly. She looked nervous early, but improved as the match went on. Now, she gets Klara Zakapalova, and then possibly Sharapova. Samantha Stosur will most likely be waiting for the winner of that match. And all that just to get to the quarters!
I'll be back as the week goes on with more.

Reflecting on the Men's First Round – Well, Most of It

2010-05-25T16:23:00.000-07:00

A few thoughts on the first round of Roland Garros, now that almost all the men and women have played. I'll start with the men.
Granted it's the first round, but Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal are both looking good. I have a hard time seeing anyone in Federer's half of the draw taking him out at this point. He struggles the most with talented, unpredictable players, and the guys left in his quarter, although talented, are all known quantities to Federer. I hate to make the call so early, but barring injury or illness, he should be good to go.
His semifinal could still be interesting, though. I predicted Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to get through, but he's already got a lot of tennis under his belt. He might need some help, getting to the semis, now. Mikhail Youzhny had a nice easy win, and a few dangerous players – Baghdatis, Isner and Berdych got through their first rounds nicely. I was pleasantly surprised to see Andy Murray survive Richard Gasquet, but he's also spent more time on court than I'm sure he'd like, and he could have a lot more under his belt by the time he runs into those players. I'm still not confident in his chances.
Andy Roddick's played a lot for one match, but his draw is looking pretty nice ... until the fourth round, where David Ferrer might be lurking. Ferrer might be the new unofficial third favorite after Fernando Verdasco got bitten by the bad draw bug. It will be interesting to see how Roddick, who pulled out of Madrid, bounces back against Blaz Kavcic, his second-round opponent.
If he's fit, Novak Djokovic has got to like his draw. He gets a talented, but tired, Kei Nishikori in the second round and possibly Victor Hanescu in the third. After that, it could Juan Carlos Ferrero for a spot in the quarterfinals. If he gets a couple matches under his belt, Djokovic might turn into a contender. Stay tuned to find out.
In the final quarter, it's hard to like anyone other than Nadal. He's up next against an Argentine opponent who went 8-6 in the fifth in his first-round match. Like with Federer, Nadal's comfortable enough with the guys in his draw that it's hard to imagine him losing. Of course, last year wasn't any different, and look how that turned out.
For his quarterfinal opponent, I keep going back and forth between Verdasco and Almagro, but Verdasco jumped out to a huge advantage in my book, losing just eight games in his first-round match. Almagro, meanwhile, went to five and could have Fernando Gonzalez waiting for him if he makes the third round. If he makes it to the Round of 16, he might have to play a lot of tennis. Best-of-five makes it easier to weed out the pretenders on clay, and Almagro might have played himself off the favorites' list.

So, how have my predictions gone so far? Well, I've only lost one quarterfinalist and three of my final 16 players – not too bad. Ernests Gulbis retired with an injury, but I'm not convinced he would have pulled out that match anyway. Benneteau was looking pretty good, and he got that home-crowd lift I wrote about earlier. Monaco's loss, to a qualifier ranked 141, was a real shocker, and with Gasquet, you've got to expect the unexpected. He proved me right for two sets and a break and proved me wrong the rest of the way. Oh well – can't win them all.

I'll be back soon with some thoughts on the women's draw.

Roland Garros: A Look at the Women's Draw

2010-05-21T08:52:00.000-07:00

Did you really doubt it was going to happen?
When the seedings were announced, fans everywhere had to be wondering who was going to lose the Justine Henin sweepstakes. When the people who determine the seeds chose not to promote the four-time champion above her ranking (23rd, but seeded 22nd with Kim Clijsters' withdrawal) you knew the draw was going to suffer for it, but who knew it would suffer this much?
For the entire women's draw, go here: http://www.rolandgarros.com/en_FR/scores/draws/ws/index.html
Top Half
Wow. That's all that really needs to be said. The women in this draw have won a combined 32 Grand Slam singles titles, and 22 of those titles are in the top quarter. Serena Williams leads the way and will be looking for her second Roland Garros title. If she gets it, she'll be looking at the possibility of winning the Grand Slam, the first time any singles player has done so since 1988. And there aren't too many obstacles in her way before the quarterfinals. Melinda Czink could be tricky in the second round, as could Shahar Peer or Marion Bartoli in the Round of 16, but I think Serena's early draw looks pretty good.
It's the section right below her that could be all kinds of fun. Maria Sharapova's going to come in having just played a tournament this week (Strasbourg) and she's in the third set of a semifinal match as I write this. Her first two rounds look pretty easy, but she was the aforementioned loser of the Justine Henin sweepstakes. If Henin's healthy (and gets through her potentially-tricky early rounds), we'll have a blockbuster third round to look forward to. Whoever gets through there will most likely play Samantha Stosur in the Round of 16 – and then Serena could be looming. If Serena vs. Henin does happen, we could see some fireworks. Serena's still got some lingering hard feelings from their 2003 semifinal, and it will be interesting to see if she can overcome that.
The second quarter isn't exactly a walk in the park either. Fourth-seeded Jelena Jankovic stands out as the favorite here, but there are some unseeded dangers lurking, including Carla Suarez-Navarro and 2008 champion Ana Ivanovic. I think both could make runs here. The 2008 and 2009 runner-up, Dinara Safina, is also in this section, but her warm-up results haven't been anything to write home about. The good news is that the tennis gods gave her a good draw. It remains to be seen if she can take advantage of that.
Bottom Half
After so much action in the top half of the draw, this almost feels like a let down. Defending champion Svetlana Kuznetsova and third-seeded Caroline Wozniacki are the headliners here, but Kuznetsova's looked dreadful this year, and when exactly has Wozniacki had time to recover from that ankle injury she had at the start of the clay season? It's hard to like Kuznetsova's chances, given her draw. She ended up with Sorana Cirstea (defending quarterfinalist and top unseeded player) in the first round, and, should she survive that, there are all kinds of tough players to come. Unless she finds the magic that won her last year's title, her stay in Paris could be very short this year.
Wozniacki's luck wasn't much better. She could have Tathiana Garbin in the second round, an opponent who knows how to beat off-form top players. After that, Alexandra Dulgheru should be favored to make the third round, and Flavia Pennetta or Lucie Safarova could come in the Round of 16. Wozniacki better hope that ankle's in good shape if she's going to stand a prayer at doing well.
Most of the top contenders landed in the top quarter, but for my money, most of the secondary ones ended up in the bottom quarter. Elena Dementieva, the 2004 runner-up, could end up with Anabel Medina Garrigues in the second round and Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez or Victoria Azarenka in the Round of 16. No doubt there's dangers there, but if she's feeling good, she can get through that.
Venus probably ended up with the hardest draw after Henin's. She ended up with Patty Schnyder, who has slipped, but is still dangerous, in the first round. It's unlikely, but an upset there wouldn't stun me. Last year's semifinalist, Dominika Cibulkova, could be lurking in the third round and then possibly Aravane Rezai or former semifinalist Nadia Petrova in the fourth round. If she's going to get through, Venus is going to have to hit the ground running. Otherwise, she might have plenty of time to get ready for Wimbledon.

What's Going to Happen?
Who knows? With the way this season has gone, you've got to be gutsier than usual to make a prediction. My money says the winner comes out of the top half. Beyond that, Jelena Jankovic might be best set up for a win – nice draw, not too easy, not too hard. That's assuming she doesn't meet a rested, confident Justine Henin in the semis, though. Henin's draw might be a little too tough for her to go all the way, or she (or whoever comes out of that quarter) might find the semis and finals easy after the early rounds. For some reason, no matter what happens in the warm-ups, Henin seems to become a different player once she reaches to Paris. We'll find out pretty quickly if that's changed. Anyway, here's a few guesses, starting with the Round of 16:
Williams vs. Peer
Henin vs. Stosur
Jankovic vs. Suarez-Navarro
Zvonareva vs. Ivanovic
Cirstea vs. Schiavone
Safarova vs. Wozniacki
Dementieva vs. Martinez Sanchez
Petrova vs. Williams

Quarterfinals
Williams vs. Henin
Jankovic vs. Ivanovic
Schiavone vs. Wozniacki
Dementieva vs. Petrova

Semifinals
Henin vs. Jankovic
Wozniacki vs. Dementieva

Finals
Henin vs. Dementieva

Champion
Henin

Roland Garros: A Look at the Men's Draw

2010-05-21T07:47:00.000-07:00

I blogged before that until he loses, Rafael Nadal has to be considered the man to beat at Roland Garros this year, and I haven't seen anything in the draw to make me change my mind. For a look at the entire draw, go to: http://www.rolandgarros.com/en_FR/scores/draws/ms/index.html
Top Half
In the top quarter, I only see one real threat to Roger Federer, and that's Ernests Gulbis – should Gulbis get to the quarterfinals. And after the clay-court season he's had, he should be expected to get there. Gulbis drew Marin Cilic, a very good player who's been off on the clay, in the third round; and Albert Montanes, a solid, but not great Spaniard, or Robin Soderling, the defending runner-up, in the Round of 16. Based on his results this spring, a shot at Federer is definitely possible, and based on their two matches on clay this season, that has the potential to be a blockbuster match. Federer has the most recent win, and I'm going with him on this one, but Gulbis did get the win in Rome, and he didn't exactly roll over and die in Madrid. That's one of the matches this year I hope will happen.
In the second quarter, I've got some upsets happening, and my first instinct is that Jo-Wilfried Tsonga's going to come through there. Andy Murray's got a really tough match right at the start, against Richard Gasquet, who's been winning matches at some smaller events. With the confidence he's gained, the talent he has and a little help from the home crowd, he could pull off a big upset. Even if he doesn't, it looks like about anybody could make the quarters from this section. Besides Murray and Gasquet, John Isner and Tomas Berdych are dangerous, but both have injury questions. If healthy, Isner's surprised me on clay. With his serve, could he have a run in him? Marcos Baghdatis hasn't been great on clay, but who knows?
Bottom Half
I guess the biggest question about the third quarter of the draw is this: Is Novak Djokovic fit and in form to make a run? If he is, he's got the game, confidence and experience to make the semis. If not, well, he's got a tough draw ahead of him. His potential third-round opponent, Victor Hanescu, reached the Round of 16 last year, and 2003 champion Juan Carlos Ferrero is also looming in this section. Should he get through that, David Ferrer could be waiting in the quarters. Ferrer got drawn against Andy Roddick in the Round of 16, but I'm not sure Roddick makes it that far. Juan Monaco could be a tough customer in the third round.
A lot of good clay-court players ended up in the bottom quarter, starting with second-seeded Rafael Nadal. He could play Thomaz Bellucci or Ivan Ljubicic in the fourth round, with any one of Fernando Verdasco, Nicolas Almagro or Fernando Gonzalez lurking in the quarters. Earlier this week, I had Verdasco as my unofficial third favorite. Well, for a third favorite, the draw gods certainly were not kind to him. It's hard to see him, or any of these players beating a healthy, confident Nadal.

What's going to happen?
Well, the first thing we've got to remember is that upsets will happen. When and where is the question. Here's are my guesses, starting with the Round of 16:
Federer vs. Monfils
Gulbis vs. Montanes
Gasquet vs. Berdych
Youzhny vs. Tsonga
Monaco vs. Ferrer
Ferrero vs. Djokovic
Verdasco vs. Almagro
Bellucci vs. Nadal

Quarterfinals
Federer vs. Gulbis
Berdych vs. Tsonga
Ferrer vs. Djokovic
Almagro vs. Nadal

Semifinals
Federer vs. Tsonga
Ferrer vs. Nadal

Finals
Federer vs. Nadal

Champion: Nadal

Roland Garros Seed Analysis – The Women

2010-05-18T15:18:00.000-07:00

No Favorites This Year
The women’s field is much different from the men’s. With the men, we have a pretty well-defined heirarchy – Nadal, Federer, etc. – but the women haven’t developed anything close to that; most of the top players have been injured or out of form on the clay this year. The big titles on so far have gone to Justine Henin (Stuttgart), Maria Jose Martinez (Rome) and Aravane Rezai (Madrid), none of whom was even in the top 20 when they won their titles, and they might be as good a place to start as any. Rezai now enters Paris with home-Slam pressure, and if she has any doubt about what that is like, all she has to do is talk to Amelie Mauresmo. She does have a Round of 16 result from last year, though, so maybe she can make a run.
Martinez is entering Roland Garros as a legitimate dark horse, too. She reached the third round last year and put up a fight against Serena Williams. With that big clay tournament win in Rome, she certainly can’t be dismissed.
For both of these two, their tournament wins have come the hard way. Martinez beat Caroline Wozniacki, Ana Ivanovic and Jelena Jankovic in Rome, and Rezai beat Henin, Jankovic and Venus Williams at Madrid. It remains to be seen if they can duplicate those results in a major, but both know they can beat the top players. I doubt they’ll be around on the final weekend, but could they be alive beyond the first weekend? Possibly.
As surprising as it sounds, Henin might be the biggest unknown of these three. Stuttgart was her first title after coming out of retirement at the start of the year, and that win was sandwiched between a couple uncharacteristic losses. She’s had health questions, with injury and illness affecting her results, but if she’s fit, Henin has, by far, the best clay resume of any woman in the draw, with four wins and a semifinal between 2001 and 2007 and she hasn’t lost a set since the fourth round – in 2005. If she’s not fit, well, she’s also had first-round (2002) and second-round (2004) losses in that same span.
The Top Players
Serena and Venus Williams will enter Roland Garros seeded first and second for the first time since the 2003 Australian Open. Venus comes in with some confidence, having reached the finals of Madrid, so she’s got to be considered a contender. Tough losses to Jankovic and Rezai have to raise questions, though. Serena comes into Paris without a title, but after hurting her knee in Australia, she shouldn’t have been looking to win Rome and Madrid – she should have been looking to win matches, which she did. Perhaps most importantly, she’ll come into Roland Garros motivated – if she can lift the trophy here, she’ll have a good chance of winning the Grand Slam this season. No doubt, she’s a threat.
Wozniacki, now the third seed, is defending Round of 16 points, but she's been in dismal form since hurting her ankle at Charleston. She’s got to step up if she wants to live up to her seeding this year.
One player who has stepped up on the clay is Jelena Jankovic. After winning Indian Wells earlier this year, she came onto the clay, and she’s been to the latter rounds of each of the big events, but she doesn’t have a title to show for it. Now the fourth-ranked player, she’s got to be expecting to be around late in the second week.
The players who probably have the most to lose are the defending finalists, Svetlana Kuznetsova and Dinara Safina. Since winning the title last year, Kuznetsova’s results have been awful, and she’s now got just less than half her points wrapped up in Paris. In her defense, Safina’s been injured, but talk is that her practice time is limited, and she hasn’t been doing much winning since her return. An early loss in Paris could put them both on the wrong side of the Top 16 – that’s a long way for players with their talent to fall.
Samantha Stosur was hot to start the clay season, winning the Charleston tournament and finishing runner-up to Henin in Stuttgart. She then lost 6-3, 6-3 to Venus in Madrid. As a defending semifinalist, she has a track record that suggests she could go far, but if she’s going to win, she’ll have to beat players like Henin and Venus. No doubt she’s a darkhorse, but a winner? Maybe not.
Anyone Else?
Elena Dementieva, the fifth-ranked player, is a quiet threat. She’s had good results in Paris but has been quiet this year. Agnieszka Radwanska (Round of 16) and Vika Azarenka (quarterfinals) could do well, or they could flame out early if they run into a tough draw. Azarenka especially, has disappointed, disappearing after giving Serena a huge scare in Australia.
Shahar Peer and Lucie Safarova have done well on the clay and could out-perform their seeds. Nadia Petrova, as a two-time semifinalist, will always be a tough out in Paris – and she’s coming in with a win over Serena. Keep an eye on her early.
Maria Sharapova is defending quarterfinalist points in Paris, but she’s also been injured. She might need help from the draw if she’s going to do well this year. The Italians, Flavia Pennetta and Francesca Schiavone were both first-round losers last year, but both are comfortable on clay. They should do better this year, although neither is likely to be around for the final weekend.
Na Li reached the Round of 16 last year but after reaching the semifinals in Australia, she’s also been quiet. Dominika Cibulkova is defending semifinalist points but she’s barely been heard from since last year. An early loss will send her plummeting.
The top French player is Marion Bartoli, but as of right now, her results haven’t suggested she’s capable of living up to her seeding. Vera Zvonareva has been to the quarterfinals in Paris before and isn’t defending anything this year, although her results haven’t been up to par, either.
It’s a packed crowd in the women’s field, no doubt about it. Perhaps more so than with the men, the draw is going to tell a lot about who can and can’t win this year. At this point, I wouldn't even want to begin to guess at what's going to happen.
Come back later this week, for more on Roland Garros.

Roland Garros Seed Analysis – The Men

2010-05-17T09:34:00.000-07:00

Danger to the Top?

How quickly things can change. Just a couple months ago, some tennis fans were lamenting the possibility of Roger Federer’s streak of Grand Slam semifinals possibly being stopped here, should he draw then-fifth ranked Rafael Nadal for the quarterfinals. Now, with Nadal safely planted at the bottom of the draw, Federer’s run is almost sure to remain intact.

Or is it?

For some reason, this season feels different than past years, where Federer has shown signs of “vulnerability.” In 2009, Federer had losses to Stanislas Wawrinka, Julien Benneteau and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. All are capable players, no doubt, but at the same time, they aren't guys you would expect to get beat the world’s top-ranked player over five sets.

Coming into Roland Garros this year, Federer has lost matches to Marcos Baghdatis, Tomas Berdych and Ernests Gulbis, all players whose talent, shot-making and explosiveness have been talked about for years. All three are also players who one could imagine, over the course of five sets, having enough weapons to come out on top against the world’s No. 1 player. I could certainly imagine it happening. Now make no mistake, that doesn’t mean I think it will happen, just that it’s possible – especially if Federer has an off-day. And if an upset does happen, Federer’s No. 1 ranking might be in some danger. Again, his losing early isn’t likely, but it can’t be completely ruled out.

The good news for Federer is that, as a top-eight player, he avoids Berdych and Gulbis until at least the Round of 16. Baghdatis is seeded lower, so he could get drawn against Federer in the third round. Baghdatis and Berdych (who's been injured) have not been noisemakers on the clay this year and may be lesser threats than Gulbis, who beat Federer in Rome and lost a tough three-setter to him in Madrid. Gulbis also gave Nadal a very tough match in the Rome semis. If expectations don’t get to him, he’ll be a threat in Paris.

The Reign of Spain

Right now, Nadal has to be considered the man to beat. He comes into Paris undefeated and healthy, and he should have plenty of confidence after beating Federer in the Madrid final. With just a Round of 16 performance to defend from last year, Nadal – if he lifts the championship trophy on the second Sunday in Paris – could set himself up for another run at No. 1 this summer. No doubt, he has much more to gain out of this tournament than a fifth Roland Garros title.

Behind Nadal and Federer, many of the top contenders in Paris have the letters ESP behind their names. Fernando Verdasco will be coming in as the seventh seed, and as the unofficial third favorite after winning Barcelona and reaching the finals of Monte Carlo, but he reportedly has an ankle injury. David Ferrer is 10th, was runner up in Rome and reached the semis in Monte Carlo and Madrid, losing to Nadal and Federer, respectively. Juan Carlos Ferrero reached the quarterfinals in Monte Carlo and won a couple clay events earlier this year – plus he knows how to win at Roland Garros. He is coming into Paris with a knee injury, though. Tommy Robredo has also been quiet but is defending quarterfinalist points from last year. Nicolas Almagro looked confident in Madrid, taking Nadal to three in the semis, and Feliciano Lopez also had a good run, his coming in Rome. And all that’s before mentioning Albert Montanes, the winner in Estoril. If the draw gods are kind, the guys from Spain could be primed for great success this year.

The Rest of the Pack

So what about the rest of the top guys? Well, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray have looked a little vulnerable on clay – vulnerable enough that I wouldn’t put either on the top-five list of contenders coming in. Djokovic had a good result in Monte Carlo, reaching the semifinals, but there, he lost to Verdasco 6-2, 6-2, and he lost to Verdasco again in Rome. Both are going to have to step up big time if they want to be in the discussion when the end of the second week rolls around.

Robin Soderling has had a nice, but not great spring. As the fifth seed and defending runner-up, he’s got a lot to defend, but the draw this year is littered with dangers, and Soderling, although solid, hasn’t looked like a guy ready to defend last year’s result.

The French guys haven't made much noise this spring, either. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Gael Monfils and Gilles Simon (currently injured) will undoubtedly get a lift from the home crowd, Will that be enough to get them past a Federer or Nadal? Most likely not. A Djokovic or Murray? Possibly – if they’re playing well.

Andy Roddick surprised many fans with his run to the Round of 16 last year. This year, he’s coming into Paris with no match play on red clay, so we don’t know his form one way or the other. U.S. fans might have to rely on his compatriots – John Isner and Sam Querrey the finalists at the Serbia Open, if they want wins in Paris this year. We haven’t seen much of these two against the top guys, but at the very least, they should expect to live up to their seeds.

Marin Cilic made a lot of noise on the hard courts but has been less impressive this spring. He’ll have to step up if he’s going to last beyond the first week. Fernando Gonzalez is a defending semifinalist but has been injured. No one knows what form he’ll bring to Paris, but it’s hard to imagine him duplicating last year’s result. The 25th seed, Thomaz Bellucci, is someone fans were talking about earlier this year, but he hasn't has the kind of results that would make one think of him as a top contender - he made the Barcelona quarters and won a clay event in February, but he's had some tough losses this spring as well.

Ultimately, the draw’s going to determine a lot, but based just on this spring's results, the list of favorites should be Nadal, then Federer, then Verdasco, Gulbis and Ferrer. If Djokovic can find some form, put him in the discussion, too; despite his results this year – he has been good on clay in the past.

Tomorrow, I’ll take a look at the women’s seeds.

Hi, Everyone!

2010-05-11T16:00:00.000-07:00

If you've just happened across this blog, welcome! I'm a long-time tennis fan, but fairly new to the blogosphere. Occasionally, I'll be sharing thoughts on what is going on in the professional tennis world and about various tournaments and players. Hope you'll continue to visit in the future.